177
FXUS65 KPUB 301047
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
347 AM MST THU JAN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
- DRY AND MILD FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH
PRECIPITATION CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST THU JAN 30 2025
CURRENTLY...
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVERHEAD, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY
SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. OUR WESTERN-MOST MOUNTAINS HAVE
ALREADY STOPPED SNOWING FOR THE MOST PART, BUT THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR CURRENTLY SHOW PLENTY OF SHOWER COVERAGE
PUSHING AROUND THE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
ALREADY GUSTING UP NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE, THOUGH NOT VERY STRONG
YET.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING CONTINUED WINTER
IMPACTS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOUNTAINS, BUT AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN WE WILL SEE SOME OF OUR HEAVIER SNOWFALL LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WHERE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE COMING IN DRY, LATEST DATA SHOWS A
GOOD TROWAL SETUP, INCREASING ODDS FOR SNOW BAND FORMATION LATER
THIS MORNING. THE EXACT POSITIONING OF SAID BAND IS STILL IN
QUESTION, HOWEVER, AND DIFFERS BY SEVERAL MILES BETWEEN DIFFERENT
GUIDANCE. WHILE SOME OF THE NEWER HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE THE BAND
SPANNING UP I-25 THROUGH MOST OF PUEBLO AND EL PASO COUNTIES, LATEST
NBM GUIDANCE PUSHES THE BAND A BIT FURTHER NORTH, FROM WESTERN EL
PASO UP OVER THE PALMER TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES DATA
FROM THE LAST FEW HOURS, SUCH AS THE RAP, PLACES THE BAND A TAD
FURTHER EAST, CLOSER TO CALHAN. THE POSITIONING OF THE BAND WILL
DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROWAL SETUP, AS WELL AS WHETHER THE
DYNAMIC FEATURES OF THE PASSING LOW CAN OVERCOME DRY DOWNSLOPING OFF
OF THE PALMER DIVIDE FROM THE NORTH, NOT TO MENTION THE TRACK AND
SPEED OF THE LOW ITSELF, WHICH HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT IN THE
MODELS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
IN SHORT, A SLOWER, STRONGER LOW WILL LEAD TO GREATER ADVECTION AND
FORCING, CAUSING THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO EXPAND SOUTH MORE INTO
OUR AREA. IF THE FORCING IS WEAKER, DOWNSLOPING WILL OVERCOME THE
PRECIPITATION SOONER, AND SNOW WILL BE LESSER SOUTH OF THE UPSLOPE
AREAS ON THE PALMER. THAT WILL BE OUR BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY. THE SNOW GRADIENT IN AND AROUND THE BAND WILL BE QUITE STEEP,
WITH 2-3 INCHES OR SO OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIEST AREA, AND 6 INCHES OR
MORE WITHIN IT. THESE TOTALS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT THAT IS WHAT
CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS. AFTER DIGGING INTO THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE HIGH-RES, SETTLED ON HEAVIEST SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
EASTERN EL PASO COUNTIES, AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR DOWNSLOPING TOWARDS
PUEBLO.
OVERALL SNOW TOTALS HAVE COME UP A BIT SINCE YESTERDAY. HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS, THE RATON MESA,
AND THE PIKES PEAK AREA, WITH A GOOD 8-10 MORE INCHES EXPECTED TODAY
AT THE PEAKS, AND 5-7 LOWER ON THE SLOPES. OVER NORTHERN EL PASO, 4-
7 IS THE WIDESPREAD AVERAGE, BUT WITH HOW LOW THE CONFIDENCE IS IN
THE POSITIONING OF THE SNOW BAND TODAY, STUCK CLOSER TO THE LOWER
END OF THOSE TOTALS, AND KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING
RATHER THAN UPGRADING TO A WARNING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS, BUT SOME AREAS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS MAY
SEE JUST A BIT LESS. MEANWHILE, THE REST OF I-25 WILL SEE 1-2
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW TODAY, WHILE AREAS FURTHER EAST RECEIVE
LITTLE TO NO SNOW, ESPECIALLY WITH TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW-40S. AREAS HIGHER UP, INCLUDING THE PALMER AND
RATON, ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.
LOOKING AT POTENTIAL IMPACTS, PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT (NAM12 SHOWS SOME 40-50 KNOT WINDS AT
700MB) WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW FOR A FEW
HOURS, RESULTING IN LOWERED VISIBILITY THAT MAY IMPACT THE AFTERNOON
COMMUTE. ROADS WILL ALSO TURN SLICK AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY UNDER
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. MEANWHILE, PERSISTENT SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, LASTING UNTIL
JUST AFTER MIDDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. HOWEVER, SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVER AND ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS, AS WELL
AS THE RATON MESA, FAR LONGER THAN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
SNOW WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING, SAVE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LASTING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR AN EXTRA COUPLE HOURS. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT,
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20 OVER MOST EASTERN LOCATIONS AND
TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST THU JAN 30 2025
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ZONAL FLOW FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL LEAD TO ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS COLORADO OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF COTTONWOOD
PASS WHERE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ON WEST FACING SLOPES ARE IN THE FORECAST.
ENHANCED MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE
50S AND INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. ELEVATED WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GAP AND
WIND PRONE AREAS COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS PUTTING MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AGAIN WITH
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE PLAINS, DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE. A COLD FRONT WILL BACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40 TO 50S BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. MOZLEY
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST THU JAN 30 2025
INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB
TODAY, GENERALLY LEAVING CONDITIONS IN THE IFR RANGE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE AT KALS PRIOR TO
MIDDAY, WHILE KCOS AND KPUB RETAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON,
THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR LONGER. UNDER PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW, IFR CONDITIONS (BOTH CIGS AND VIS) WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW-END CHANCE THAT LIFR CONDITIONS COULD
BRIEFLY POP UP AT KCOS DUE TO BANDING SNOW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS ROUND OF TAFS.
ONCE SNOW CLEARS OUT THIS EVENING, CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
OVERNIGHT, OUTSIDE OF THE CHANCE FOR ANY FOG FORMATION.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE GUSTY AND GENERALLY FROM THE NNW, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30-35 KNOTS DUE TO THE PASSING SYSTEM.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ067-068-072>075-079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ081-082-084>086.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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