656
FXUS65 KPUB 031202
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
502 AM MST MON MAR 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY.
- VERY STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT, WITH
HEAVY, WIND DRIVEN SNOW AND RAIN SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO.
- DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL
IMPACTS WITH DANGEROUS CROSSWINDS AND LOW VISIBILITIES IN
BLOWING SNOW AND/OR BLOWING DUST ACROSS OUR PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
- DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A LATE WEEK SYSTEM
BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST MON MAR 3 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING DISTINCT
DRYING AS SAID SHORT WAVE IS TRANSLATING INTO THE ROCKIES AT THIS
TIME. LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND DEW PTS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW STARTING TO MIX OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME.
LATEST MODEL CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE GREAT BASIN SYSTEM TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING HIGH IMPACTS IN THE FORM OF VERY
STRONG WINDS, HIGH FIRE DANGER, WELL AS HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXING OUT ACROSS
THE PLAINS LEADING TO DEVELOPING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS STILL LOOKING GOOD.
MODEL DATA HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTING
OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
UPPER LOW PIVOTING AND DEVELOPING A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH THAT SAID, THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DEFORMATION BANDED
PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION MONDAY EVENING AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH NOT A
LOT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, SNOW LEVELS LOOK
TO DROP TO BETWEEN 5000-6000 FEET OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO BIG
GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACROSS THE PLAINS, ESPECIALLY IN THE PIKES
PEAK REGION, WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FEET. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY WITH SNOW LEVELS AND AMOUNTS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY, BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW AS THE TERRAIN
INCREASES AGAIN ALONG THE RATON MESA.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PRECIPITATION, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
STRONG GRADIENT WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PASSING
SYSTEM LATE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATING H7 WINDS
OF 60 TO 70 KTS SUPPORTING GUSTS OF 65 TO 75 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH THIS IN MIND, WE HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH
WIND WARNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN PLACE ACROSS
THE RAMPART RANGE AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY, WITH TIMING OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS NOT JUXTAPOSED ENOUGH WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO SUPPORT
A BLIZZARD WARNING AT THIS TIME. NEEDLESS TO STAY, TRAVEL WILL STILL BE
HAZARDOUS GOING NORTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ROAD CLOSURES. WE HAVE KEPT WINTER
STORM WATCHES ACROSS CROWLEY AND KIOWA COUNTIES, AND HAVE ADDED LAS
ANIMAS COUNTY ALONG THE RATON MESA TO THE WATCH. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THE POTENTIAL AMOUNT OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO WORKED OUT WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.
WITH UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING IN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS TO THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOWFALL, PLEASE
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HIGH IMPACT STORM SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST MON MAR 3 2025
TUESDAY..
FOR THE PLAINS..MODELS HAVE PUSHED THE MONDAY/TUESDAY SYSTEM A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THE PAST RUN OR TWO, AND HAVE DEEPENED IT AS
WELL. THESE SUBTLE CHANGES HAVE INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT ACROSS
THE RATON MESA AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTY IN GENERAL, AND HAVE ALSO
INCREASED EXPECTED WIND GUSTS. FOR THIS REASON, OUR WIND HIGHLIGHTS
HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR ALL THE SAME TIMES AND
ZONES, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS COMING IN OVER EL PASO COUNTY FIRST
THING TUESDAY MORNING, AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS OUR PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF TUESDAY. GUSTS TO 65MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITIES IN AREAS THAT AREA COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. FOR NOW,
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW LIE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EL
PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES, WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE
THROUGH 5 PM TUESDAY EVENING. RAIN AND LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPING
CREATING A PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN EL PASO/PUEBLO
DOUGHNUT HOLE. WHERE THE TERRAIN STARTS TO SLOPE UPHILL AGAIN OVER
LAS ANIMAS, SNOW AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY, THOUGH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS REMAIN UP NORTH ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CROWLEY AND
KIOWA COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY IF THE SOUTHWARD TRACK TREND CONTINUES.
NO MATTER WHAT COMES OF THE SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST, DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WITH THIS EVENT, AND THEY ARE LIKELY TO
RESIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY ACROSS OUR PLAINS. STRONG
WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO CAUSE BLOWING DUST ON TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN PLAINS AND OVER AREAS THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPING WINDS. NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY
IN DUST COULD ALSO LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS. DANGEROUS CROSS WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON WEST/EAST ORIENTED ROADWAYS, TO INCLUDE HIGHWAY
50. WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY. TUESDAY'S
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE PRECIPITATION
MANAGES TO FORM, BUT IN GENERAL, EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION
AND THE RATON MESA, WITH MID 30S TO 40S FOR THE REST OF EL PASO
COUNTY. 40S ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF OUR PLAINS AND
OUR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WITH A FEW LOW 50S POSSIBLE WHERE
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE STRONGEST.
FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY..SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FOR MOST OF OUR
MOUNTAINS AS THE LOW TREKS EASTWARDS ON TUESDAY. OUR CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ARE LIKELY TO PICK UP ANOTHER INCH OR TWO ON TUESDAY,
WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS, BUT GUSTS TO 50MPH
ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS MANY OF OUR HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..
OUR FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS A QUICK RIDGE PASSES WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM QUICK ON ITS HEELS. FOR WEDNESDAY, EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 50S FOR MOST PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS, WITH 40S FOR
THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE RATON. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH *FAIRLY* CLAM WINDS, AT LEAST BY COLORADO IN
MARCH STANDARDS. BY THURSDAY MORNING, SOUTHWEST FLOW AND OUR NEXT
SYSTEM BRING SNOW CHANCES BACK TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. THIS LATE WEEK
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING BENEFICIAL SNOWFALL TO OUR SAN JUANS, WHERE A
FOOT OR SO OF NEW SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. THE REST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LOOKS TO SEE SNOW AS
WELL, WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES POTENTIALLY PUSHING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS BY THURSDAY EVENING. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM, SNOW CHANCES COULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS GO FROM 60S ON
ON THURSDAY TO 40S ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY ONWARDS..
WE'RE IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR SATURDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS, SUNNY
SKIES, AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. WE WARM UP ON SUNDAY AS MODELS BRING
ANOTHER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MANY LOCATIONS LIKELY WARMING TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO HINT AT
ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH, AT THIS TIME, LOOKS TO BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ON MONDAY WITH PRECIP
CHANCES ARRIVING BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST MON MAR 3 2025
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS 15-30KT EXPECTED AT COS, PUB AND ALS INTO THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE STRONG SPRING STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO COS AND PUB AT THE THE TAIL END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD, ALONG WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT COS,
AND RAIN AT PUB. ALS COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSING
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ060.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR COZ081-082-084.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ227>237.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ085>089-
093>099.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR COZ088-094.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ089-095-096.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MW
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