060
FXUS65 KPUB 040504
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1004 PM MST MON MAR 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT, WITH HEAVY, WIND
DRIVEN SNOW AND RAIN SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
- DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL
IMPACTS WITH DANGEROUS CROSSWINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
TUESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY.
- ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES FOR BOTH THE LOWER AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 946 PM MST MON MAR 3 2025
PRIMARY CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO DECREASE SNOW TOTALS A
BIT FOR PORTIONS OF TELLER, EL PASO, CROWLEY, AND KIOWA
COUNTIES. THE WRAPPED UP LOW OVER THE REGION IS THOUGHT TO HAVE
INGESTED DRIER AIR THROUGHOUT THE DAY THAN MODELS WERE
ORIGINALLY FORECASTING, STUNTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THESE LOCALIZED AREAS. LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE, AND
RUNS THEREAFTER, SUPPORT THIS THINKING. WITH THAT ALL SAID,
DROPPED TOTALS ON AN AVERAGE OF 2-3 INCHES WITH THIS UPDATE.
REGARDLESS, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED
FOR TELLER COUNTY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST MON MAR 3 2025
CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER UT AND THE FOUR CORNERS WAS
PRODUCING A BRISK BUT DRYING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME, A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AND COULD COVER WAS ADVECTING INTO WESTERN CO, WITH HEAVY
SNOW BEING REPORTED AT WOLF CREEK. TEMPS AS OF 1 PM HAD CLIMBED INTO
THE 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR THE PLAINS.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW VERY QUICKLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE STATE
THIS EVENING, REACHING THE EASTERN BORDER BY MIDNIGHT, THEN LINGERS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH 6 AM. WHAT IS INTERESTING WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT JUST THE RAPID MOVEMENT GIVING WAY TO THE PAUSE, BUT
THAT ONCE IT REACHES THE EASTERN CO BORDER IT STRENGTHENS WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD EVEN THOUGH THE MOISTURE
TAP IS DECENT, SO IF THIS SYSTEM ACTS AS MODELS DEPICT, SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT MEAGER. HOWEVER,
STRONG DAMAGING NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HIGH
WIND WARNING AREA, AND THOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
THIS EVENING, CAUSING ISSUES WHERE SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL
FALL, THE TRULY STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RAMP UP IN THE
2-4 AM TIME FRAME, THEN CONTINUE INTO THE DAY.
WITH A MYRIAD OF HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE, THIS FORECAST IS A CHALLENGING
ONE THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE PICTURE IS A LITTLE CLEARER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. DECIDED TO CONVERT THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY TO A BLIZZARD WARNING, WITH A START TIME AT 7 PM.
THOUGH THE STRONGER WINDS WILL COME LATER, THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH AT THAT POINT AND WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, TRAVEL
CONDITIONS FOR THAT AREA WILL BE TREACHEROUS, AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TELLER COUNTY
CONTINUES, WITH HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED BUT JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS.
ADJUSTED THE START TIME THERE FOR 7 PM AS WELL. THE WINTER STORM
WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS WERE CONVERTED TO WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND CREATING HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS, EVEN THOUGH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS
WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. FINALLY, ISSUED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR THE PEAKS OF THE WETS AND SANGRES STARTING AT 7 PM
TONIGHT, WITH 5-9 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FORECAST THROUGH MIDDAY
TOMORROW.
IT NEEDS TO BE STATED, ALL TRAVEL THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
BE POTENTIALLY DIFFICULT, AND TRAVEL ALONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED ROADS
WILL LIKELY BE HAZARDOUS ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
AS FOR TEMPS, CHALLENGING ONCE AGAIN AS THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD
KEEP READINGS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO LOW. PLAN ON 20S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS, AND UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPS RIGHT ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
TUESDAY...UPPER LOW THEN BEGINS PUSHING EAST ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION FOR CO MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE KS BORDER THROUGH MIDDAY, THEN
GRADUALLY LESSENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS FOR THE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST AS WELL, WITH NORTH SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 30-45 MPH AND GUSTS OF 60 TO EVEN 70 MPH LINGERING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE
SCHEDULED TO END SLIGHTLY LATE, BUT CAN ALWAYS BE CANCELLED EARLY IF
NEED BE. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS, 30S FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY, AND 40S TO EVEN
AROUND 50F FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS. MOORE
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 PM MST MON MAR 3 2025
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SETTLING INTO THE REGION.
THIS MAY KEEP SOME SHOWERY DEVELOPMENT GOING TUESDAY EVENING,
THOUGH ADDITIONAL DRYING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WILL LIKELY SEE STRONGER WINDS
THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING, HOWEVER, STRONGEST FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST AS SURFACE GRADIENT REALLY RELAXES. THE RISK OF ANY
STRONGER/DAMAGING WINDS TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS IS
LOW AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGING RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO BY THURSDAY. WITH THE WARMER TEMPS, DRIER AIR, AND
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DO RETURN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN
FAIRLY ACTIVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST
WAVE WITHIN THIS FLOW DOES PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK DOES LOOK TO
OCCUR, HELPING TO KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT TIED TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH COULD IMPACT
SOUTHERN COLORADO ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE A SYSTEM AND PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON, AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. IF TRENDS CONTINUE, THIS
COULD BRING IMPACTFUL SNOWS TO BOTH THE HIGHER AND LOWER
TERRAIN. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TRACK AND TIMING WITH
THAT SYSTEM, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT. WILL
SEE RIDGING RETURNING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS RETURNING ESPECIALLY VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 504 PM MST MON MAR 3 2025
AT KCOS, COLD FRONT WITH PRONOUNCED SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS (G30-40
KTS) WILL ARRIVE 02Z-03Z, WITH VCSH FILLING IN CLOSE BEHIND. PERIODS
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS
06Z-13Z, BEFORE SHOWERS END AND VFR RETURNS AFTER 13Z. NORTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG (G40-50 KTS) THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN
INCREASE AFTER 13Z, WITH GUSTS NEAR/OVER 50 KTS UNTIL 19Z,
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT KPUB, GUSTY (G25KTS) W-SW WINDS UNTIL 03Z, THEN A PRONOUNCED
SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
QUICKLY SOUTH. VCSH FROM 04Z-06Z, THEN PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS 06Z-13Z, BEFORE SHOWERS
END AND VFR RETURNS AFTER 13Z. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
(G40 KTS) THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN INCREASE AFTER 13Z, WITH GUSTS
IN THE 40-50 KT UNTIL 19Z, BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
AT KALS, VFR THE NEXT 24 HRS, WITH VCSH AND GUSTY W-SW WINDS
UNTIL AROUND 04Z, THEN DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME
NWLY AND PICK UP AGAIN AGAIN AFTER 16Z TUE, WITH GUSTS 35-30
KTS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ060-073-
075-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ068.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ081-082.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ085.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ085>089-
093>099.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ088-094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ089-095-
096.
UPDATE...SIMCOE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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