412
FXUS65 KPUB 041028
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
328 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY.
- VERY STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT, WITH
HEAVY, WIND DRIVEN SNOW AND RAIN SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO.
- A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND WAVES MAKE IT OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING SNOW TO DIFFERENT
PARTS OF THE AREA. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE HIGHLIGHTING
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY AND THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO INDICATING DISTINCT
DRYING AS SAID SHORT WAVE IS TRANSLATING INTO THE ROCKIES AT THIS
TIME. LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND DEW PTS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW STARTING TO MIX OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME.
LATEST MODEL CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE GREAT BASIN SYSTEM TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING HIGH IMPACTS IN THE FORM OF VERY
STRONG WINDS, HIGH FIRE DANGER, WELL AS HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXING OUT ACROSS
THE PLAINS LEADING TO DEVELOPING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS STILL LOOKING GOOD.
MODEL DATA HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTING
OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
UPPER LOW PIVOTING AND DEVELOPING A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH THAT SAID, THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DEFORMATION BANDED
PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION MONDAY EVENING AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH NOT A
LOT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, SNOW LEVELS LOOK
TO DROP TO BETWEEN 5000-6000 FEET OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO BIG
GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACROSS THE PLAINS, ESPECIALLY IN THE PIKES
PEAK REGION, WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000 FEET. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MODELS
CONTINUE TO VARY WITH SNOW LEVELS AND AMOUNTS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY, BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW AS THE TERRAIN
INCREASES AGAIN ALONG THE RATON MESA.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PRECIPITATION, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
STRONG GRADIENT WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PASSING
SYSTEM LATE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATING H7 WINDS
OF 60 TO 70 KTS SUPPORTING GUSTS OF 65 TO 75 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH THIS IN MIND, WE HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH
WIND WARNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN PLACE ACROSS
THE RAMPART RANGE AND NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY, WITH TIMING OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS NOT JUXTAPOSED ENOUGH WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO SUPPORT
A BLIZZARD WARNING AT THIS TIME. NEEDLESS TO STAY, TRAVEL WILL STILL BE
HAZARDOUS GOING NORTH ACROSS THE PALMER DVD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ROAD CLOSURES. WE HAVE KEPT WINTER
STORM WATCHES ACROSS CROWLEY AND KIOWA COUNTIES, AND HAVE ADDED LAS
ANIMAS COUNTY ALONG THE RATON MESA TO THE WATCH. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THE POTENTIAL AMOUNT OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL NEED TO WORKED OUT WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.
WITH UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING IN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS TO THE STRONG WINDS AND SNOWFALL, PLEASE
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HIGH IMPACT STORM SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
WEDNESDAY:
A SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
LATER IN THE EVENING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THURSDAY:
A TROPICAL JET MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE SOUTH AND REACHES SOUTHERN
COLORADO ON THURSDAY, WHILE A CLOSED LOW PROPAGATES TOWARDS THE
GREAT BASIN. THE TROPICAL JET STREAK WILL PUSH UP AGAINST THE JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW, WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PLAINS. DEPENDING ON
WHAT THE FINAL PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION LOOKS LIKE FROM THE
ONGOING WINTER STORM, A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN PLAINS.
CURRENTLY, THE RH VALUES ARE A LITTLE TOO HIGH OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY, BUT HWY 50 AND SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO HIT
THE RH THRESHOLD FOR METEOROLOGICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NO
PRODUCTS FOR ANYTHING TONIGHT, BUT KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THURSDAY
BEING A POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
MEANWHILE, THE TROPICAL JET AND THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS BRINGING PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WITH THEM AS THE
MOVE OVER COLORADO. SNOW WILL HAVE STARTED EARLIER IN THE MORNING ON
THURSDAY, PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUANS, BUT THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WON'T START UNTIL AROUND NOON AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING - THOSE HOURS LOOK TO HAVE EFFICIENT SNOWFALL MAKING WITH
THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE, UPSLOPE FLOW, AND GENERAL DYNAMIC
LIFT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS WE HAVE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND 5 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
TH FINAL PHASE OF THE CONGLOMERATION OF WAVES AND LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS PASSES OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE TWO LOWS OVER
THE AMERICAN WEST THAT ARE GOING TO INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND A
WEAK 700MB LOW PASSING TO THE EAST THAT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS - ALL OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE INCREDIBLY DYNAMIC
AND ALL INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER - I STATE THIS BECAUSE THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS
THE MAIN LOW PROPAGATING SOUTH OF COLORADO PLACING THE SNOWFALL
SOUTH OF HWY 50. THERE IS SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY OF CYCLONE TRACK
AND TIMING - SO KEEP THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN MIND WHEN
PLANNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY:
AFTER THE SERIES OF WAVES PASS OVER THE REGION, IT WILL WARM AND
DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO, INCLUDING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HIGHS REACH THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE PLAINS AND THE 50S OVER THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS 15-30KT EXPECTED AT COS, PUB AND ALS INTO THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE STRONG SPRING STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO COS AND PUB AT THE THE TAIL END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD, ALONG WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT COS,
AND RAIN AT PUB. ALS COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSING
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ058-089-095-096.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
COZ060-073-075-080-088-094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ068.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ081-
082.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ085.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ085>089-
093>099.
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...EHR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page