847
FXUS65 KPUB 041323
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
623 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT PRECIP AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS OUR PLAINS TODAY.
- SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS EVENING, WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH
11AM.
- A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND WAVES MAKE IT OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING SNOW TO DIFFERENT
PARTS OF THE AREA. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE HIGHLIGHTING
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY AND THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 614 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
UPDATE TO ALLOW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THE SAN JUANS
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED DUE TO DIMINISHING SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE
AREA.
THIS UPDATE ALSO MADE MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THIS MORNING'S
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. IMPACTS HAVE TRANSITIONED FROM BEING
PRECIPITATION BASED TO DAMAGING WINDS BASED AS PRECIPITATION
FOCUS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST, AND NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO
STRENGHTEN. THE BLIZZARD WARNING OVER NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY
WAS TRANSITIONED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING, AS PRECIPITATION HAS
DECREASED, AND VISIBILITY VALUES HAVE INCREASED FAR ABOVE
BLIZZARD CRITERIA ACCORDING TO AREA OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER TELLER COUNTY WAS CANCELLED EARLY
DUE TO DECREASING SNOWFALL RATES, AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
PUSH EASTWARDS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER SOUTHERN EL
PASO, CROWLEY, AND KIOWA COUNTIES WERE ALSO CANCELLED EARLY AS
SNOWFALL RATES HAVE MOSTLY COME TO A HALT IN THESE AREAS, AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN. TODAY'S WEATHER IMPACTS HAVE
SHIFTED TO A DAMAGING WINDS FOCUS, WITH HIGH WIND WARNINGS
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE PLAINS THROUGH 5 PM.
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO 70 MPH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, DUE TO
DANGEROUS CROSSWINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEFLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST OR BLOWING SNOW. CROSSWINDS WILL
BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS ON EAST- WEST ORIENTED ROADWAYS AND
FOR LIGHT HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES!
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 328 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
CURRENTLY..
SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACES THE LOW IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. RADAR SHOWS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
DOWNSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP MINIMUM OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY. SOME DRYING/CLEARING HAS ALSO BEGUN OVER FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES, WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN EL PASO AS OF 3AM. WE HAD LIGHTNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLIER TONIGHT, THOUGH AS OF 2AM ALL LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. WINDS HAVE BEEN
NORTHERLY, WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS. AS OF 2AM, TEMPERATURES
ARE RANGING FROM MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS TO LOW 40S
THROUGH THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
TODAY..
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE LOW EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS, DRAGGING THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG WITH IT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THOUGH LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE PIKES PEAK
REGION, THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY PAST, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING IN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EL PASO
COUNTY. NORTHERLY GUSTS OF UP TO 70 MPH ARE LIKELY (80% CHANCE)
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTY. FOR THIS REASON, THE BLIZZARD WARNING WAS KEPT IN
PLACE THROUGH 2PM THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW. EVEN LIGHT SNOW COULD LEAD
TO NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN
70MPH WINDS THIS MORNING. DANGEROUS CROSSWINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
FOR OUR EAST-WEST ORIENTED ROADWAYS, TO INCLUDE HIGHWAY 50,
ESPECIALLY FOR LIGHT AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BLOWING DUST WAS
REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE DUE TO PRECIPITATION ON
OUR PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND FORECAST MINIMUM
RELATIVE VALUES IN THESE AREAS REMAINING IN +30% RANGE TODAY. THAT
SAID, IT MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE (LESS THAN 30% CHANCE) TO LOFT DUST
IN 70 MPH WINDS TODAY, DESPITE THE INCREASED MOISTURE ON OUR PLAINS.
PLEASE USE CAUTION ON AREA ROADWAYS TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN LOW
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS, WHETHER THAT BE IN BLOWING SNOW OR BLOWING
DUST! THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SLIDES EAST AND SOUTH THROUGHOUT
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH OUR STRONGEST GUSTS OF THE DAY PLACED
OVER OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS BY AROUND 11AM THIS MORNING. WINDS LOOK
TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AFTER AROUND 2PM, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ALL AREAS
MOSTLY DRY BY SUNSET.
TONIGHT..
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS KEEPING GUSTS UNDER 25 MPH BY AROUND 2AM OR SO AT THE
LATEST. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR TONIGHT AS THE LOW ADVANCES EASTWARD
AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
WEDNESDAY:
A SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WITH SNOW DEVELOPING
LATER IN THE EVENING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THURSDAY:
A TROPICAL JET MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE SOUTH AND REACHES SOUTHERN
COLORADO ON THURSDAY, WHILE A CLOSED LOW PROPAGATES TOWARDS THE
GREAT BASIN. THE TROPICAL JET STREAK WILL PUSH UP AGAINST THE JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW, WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PLAINS. DEPENDING ON
WHAT THE FINAL PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION LOOKS LIKE FROM THE
ONGOING WINTER STORM, A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN PLAINS.
CURRENTLY, THE RH VALUES ARE A LITTLE TOO HIGH OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY, BUT HWY 50 AND SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO HIT
THE RH THRESHOLD FOR METEOROLOGICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NO
PRODUCTS FOR ANYTHING TONIGHT, BUT KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THURSDAY
BEING A POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
MEANWHILE, THE TROPICAL JET AND THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS BRINGING PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WITH THEM AS THE
MOVE OVER COLORADO. SNOW WILL HAVE STARTED EARLIER IN THE MORNING ON
THURSDAY, PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUANS, BUT THE HEAVIEST
SNOW WON'T START UNTIL AROUND NOON AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING - THOSE HOURS LOOK TO HAVE EFFICIENT SNOWFALL MAKING WITH
THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE, UPSLOPE FLOW, AND GENERAL DYNAMIC
LIFT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS WE HAVE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND 5 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
TH FINAL PHASE OF THE CONGLOMERATION OF WAVES AND LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS PASSES OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE TWO LOWS OVER
THE AMERICAN WEST THAT ARE GOING TO INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND A
WEAK 700MB LOW PASSING TO THE EAST THAT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS - ALL OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE INCREDIBLY DYNAMIC
AND ALL INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER - I STATE THIS BECAUSE THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS
THE MAIN LOW PROPAGATING SOUTH OF COLORADO PLACING THE SNOWFALL
SOUTH OF HWY 50. THERE IS SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY OF CYCLONE TRACK
AND TIMING - SO KEEP THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN MIND WHEN
PLANNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY:
AFTER THE SERIES OF WAVES PASS OVER THE REGION, IT WILL WARM AND
DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO, INCLUDING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HIGHS REACH THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE PLAINS AND THE 50S OVER THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 328 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
FOR KCOS..MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, WITH IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS AS FOCUS FOR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EASTWARD AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS
STRENGTHEN. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS THIS MORNING,
WITH GUSTS TO 55KT EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 19Z. WINDS GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
AFTER THIS MORNING IS NOT EXPECTED.
FOR KPUB..MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR KPUB, AS RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BRIEF MFVR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ANY SHOWERS MANAGE TO PUSH OVER
STATION, THOUGH THAT REMAINS UNLIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPUB THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO 50KT
EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 19Z. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KALS..VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY, WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECKS.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED ON STATION.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
COZ060-073-075-080-088-094.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ084>089-
093>099.
UPDATE...EHR
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...EHR
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