643  
FXUS65 KPUB 041723  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
1023 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- LIGHT PRECIP AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL KEEP  
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH  
AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS OUR PLAINS TODAY.  
 
- SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH  
THIS EVENING, WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH  
11AM.  
 
- A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND WAVES MAKE IT OVER  
SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING SNOW TO DIFFERENT  
PARTS OF THE AREA. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE  
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE HIGHLIGHTING  
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
 
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN  
LUIS VALLEY AND THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2025  
 
UPDATED FORECAST TO CANCEL SNOW ADVISORIES FOR AREAS IN WHICH  
THEY PREVIOUSLY WERE IN EFFECT FOR. TEMPS ARE WARMING UP OVER  
THE PLAINS, SO ANY SNOW DOWN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LAS ANIMAS  
COUNTY WILL NOT BE IMPACTFUL. OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SNOW  
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE, BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE  
LIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NORTHWEST SLOPES OF THE  
CENTRAL MTNS NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS MAY SEE 1-3" THROUGH EARLY  
THIS EVENING.  
 
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THE REST OF  
THIS AM, BUT SHOULD START TO DECREASE BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.  
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS, BUT MAY  
CANCEL THEM BY EARLY AFTERNOON IF THE WINDS DECREASE PER HIGH  
RES GUIDANCE. \/HODANISH  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 328 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2025  
 
CURRENTLY..  
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACES THE LOW IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS  
MORNING, WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE  
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. RADAR SHOWS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE  
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE  
DOWNSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP MINIMUM OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER  
VALLEY. SOME DRYING/CLEARING HAS ALSO BEGUN OVER FAR WESTERN  
PORTIONS OF EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES, WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY  
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN EL PASO AS OF 3AM. WE HAD LIGHTNING ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLIER TONIGHT, THOUGH AS OF 2AM ALL LIGHTNING  
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. WINDS HAVE BEEN  
NORTHERLY, WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE THROUGHOUT THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS. AS OF 2AM, TEMPERATURES  
ARE RANGING FROM MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS TO LOW 40S  
THROUGH THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.  
 
TODAY..  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE LOW EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING  
HOURS, DRAGGING THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION AND STRONGEST WINDS  
ALONG WITH IT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THOUGH LIGHT TO  
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE PIKES PEAK  
REGION, THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY PAST, WITH  
THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING IN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EL PASO  
COUNTY. NORTHERLY GUSTS OF UP TO 70 MPH ARE LIKELY (80% CHANCE)  
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF  
OF THE COUNTY. FOR THIS REASON, THE BLIZZARD WARNING WAS KEPT IN  
PLACE THROUGH 2PM THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF  
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW. EVEN LIGHT SNOW COULD LEAD  
TO NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN  
70MPH WINDS THIS MORNING. DANGEROUS CROSSWINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY  
FOR OUR EAST-WEST ORIENTED ROADWAYS, TO INCLUDE HIGHWAY 50,  
ESPECIALLY FOR LIGHT AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. BLOWING DUST WAS  
REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE DUE TO PRECIPITATION ON  
OUR PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND FORECAST MINIMUM  
RELATIVE VALUES IN THESE AREAS REMAINING IN +30% RANGE TODAY. THAT  
SAID, IT MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE (LESS THAN 30% CHANCE) TO LOFT DUST  
IN 70 MPH WINDS TODAY, DESPITE THE INCREASED MOISTURE ON OUR PLAINS.  
PLEASE USE CAUTION ON AREA ROADWAYS TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN LOW  
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS, WHETHER THAT BE IN BLOWING SNOW OR BLOWING  
DUST! THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SLIDES EAST AND SOUTH THROUGHOUT  
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH OUR STRONGEST GUSTS OF THE DAY PLACED  
OVER OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS BY AROUND 11AM THIS MORNING. WINDS LOOK  
TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AFTER AROUND 2PM, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING  
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN  
END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ALL AREAS  
MOSTLY DRY BY SUNSET.  
 
TONIGHT..  
 
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE TO  
WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MOST  
LOCATIONS KEEPING GUSTS UNDER 25 MPH BY AROUND 2AM OR SO AT THE  
LATEST. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR TONIGHT AS THE LOW ADVANCES EASTWARD  
AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVERHEAD.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 328 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2025  
 
WEDNESDAY:  
 
A SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND  
50S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WITH SNOW DEVELOPING  
LATER IN THE EVENING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  
 
THURSDAY:  
 
A TROPICAL JET MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE SOUTH AND REACHES SOUTHERN  
COLORADO ON THURSDAY, WHILE A CLOSED LOW PROPAGATES TOWARDS THE  
GREAT BASIN. THE TROPICAL JET STREAK WILL PUSH UP AGAINST THE JET  
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW, WHICH WILL CREATE GUSTY  
WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE PLAINS. DEPENDING ON  
WHAT THE FINAL PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION LOOKS LIKE FROM THE  
ONGOING WINTER STORM, A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY MAY BE  
POSSIBLE OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN PLAINS.  
CURRENTLY, THE RH VALUES ARE A LITTLE TOO HIGH OVER THE SAN LUIS  
VALLEY, BUT HWY 50 AND SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO HIT  
THE RH THRESHOLD FOR METEOROLOGICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NO  
PRODUCTS FOR ANYTHING TONIGHT, BUT KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THURSDAY  
BEING A POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.  
 
MEANWHILE, THE TROPICAL JET AND THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW  
PRESSURE CENTER IS BRINGING PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WITH THEM AS THE  
MOVE OVER COLORADO. SNOW WILL HAVE STARTED EARLIER IN THE MORNING ON  
THURSDAY, PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUANS, BUT THE HEAVIEST  
SNOW WON'T START UNTIL AROUND NOON AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY  
MORNING - THOSE HOURS LOOK TO HAVE EFFICIENT SNOWFALL MAKING WITH  
THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE MOISTURE, UPSLOPE FLOW, AND GENERAL DYNAMIC  
LIFT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS WE HAVE  
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW FALLING OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUANS AND 5 TO 6  
INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE.  
 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:  
 
TH FINAL PHASE OF THE CONGLOMERATION OF WAVES AND LOW PRESSURE  
CENTERS PASSES OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE TWO LOWS OVER  
THE AMERICAN WEST THAT ARE GOING TO INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND A  
WEAK 700MB LOW PASSING TO THE EAST THAT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT OVER  
THE PLAINS - ALL OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE INCREDIBLY DYNAMIC  
AND ALL INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER - I STATE THIS BECAUSE THERE IS A  
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS  
THE MAIN LOW PROPAGATING SOUTH OF COLORADO PLACING THE SNOWFALL  
SOUTH OF HWY 50. THERE IS SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY OF CYCLONE TRACK  
AND TIMING - SO KEEP THIS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN MIND WHEN  
PLANNING.  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY:  
 
AFTER THE SERIES OF WAVES PASS OVER THE REGION, IT WILL WARM AND  
DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO, INCLUDING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
HIGHS REACH THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE PLAINS AND THE 50S OVER THE  
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2025  
 
STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD AT  
KCOS AND KPUB, AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE REST OF THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS, KPUB AND KALS THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ084>089-  
093>099.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...HODANISH  
SHORT TERM...EHR  
LONG TERM...SKELLY  
AVIATION...HODANISH  
 
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