915
FXUS65 KPUB 050520
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1020 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TOMORROW.
- SNOW RETURNS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, THEN PRECIPITATION EXPANDS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 503 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
THE SPRING STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. WHILE IT DOES SO, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION, AS THE SUN SETS,
DIURNAL MIXING WILL LESSEN. GIVEN ALL OF THIS, STRONG WINDS
OVER THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE PLAINS, WILL STEADILY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING, AND GIVEN THIS, THE HIGH WIND
WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
CURRENTLY...
WINDS WERE STILL STRONG OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THEY HAVE COME DOWN A BIT FOR THE WIND SPEEDS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WERE STILL NOTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GREATER SOUTHERN SANGRES AND UP IN
LAKE COUNTY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED OVER NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY.
AS FOR TEMPS, OVER SNOWPACKED AREAS OF THE PLAINS, TEMPS WERE IN THE
30S AND 40S, WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS WERE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. THE WARMEST TEMPS WERE IN THE PUEBLO/CANON CITY AREAS WHERE
TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WAS IN THE MID 40S.
MOUNTAINS WERE IN THE 10S AND 20S.
THROUGH TONIGHT...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE
ACTIVITY RAPIDLY DECREASING BY EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL QUICKLY DECREASE
BY THE EVENING HOURS. WE STILL MAY SEE A 58 MPH GUSTS OR TWO OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THE WINDS SHOULD GO
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA BY MID AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND MAY CANCEL THE WARNING EARLY.
FOR LATER TONIGHT, PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END AND WINDS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN BECOME (RELATIVELY) LIGHT, AND MIN TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO
THE LOWER 20S OVER THE PLAINS AND TENS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. MTNS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
TOMORROW...
BESIDE A FLURRY OR TWO OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS, IT SHOULD BE DRY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE AROUND SEASONABLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, WITH 50S OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS WITH 40S
OVER NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY, AND 50S ACROSS THE SLV. WINDS SHOULD BE
MUCH LESS TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE SOME BREEZES OVER
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PACIFIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WED NIGHT, WHILE THE UPPER JET WITH A
140 KT CORE DIGS OUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AND ADVECTS
MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO WESTERN CO. SNOW
RETURNS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN STARTING WED NIGHT, WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS BEING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AND TOTAL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR THE PEAKS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COULD RANGE FROM 5 TO 10
INCHES. MEANWHILE, THE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR
THE EASTERN SLOPES AND PLAINS SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY WARM DAY THU,
AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS AND PUSHES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH
TEMPS FOR THU ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70F
FOR THE PLAINS, WHILE THE HIGH VALLEYS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
SUBDUED, MID 40S TO AROUND 50F, DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
ALSO TO NOTE, THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. AT THIS
TIME, IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO WARRANT
MORE THAN A MENTION, BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. BY THU
NIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH SPLITS INTO TWO DISTINCT LOW CORES, ONE
CONTINUING ACROSS ID INTO WY AND MT, WHILE THE OTHER FOLLOWS THE
CA COASTLINE SOUTH.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE NORTHERN LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NE ON FRI,
PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE SOMETIME LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, USHERING IN COOLER AIR AS WELL AS SPARKING SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL PUSH INTO AZ, CONTINUING MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CO.
THIS LOW WILL CROSS NM ON SAT, AND AT THIS TIME THE PATH LOOKS A
LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST
AREA SAVE FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER, BUT THERE ARE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF 50 TO 100 MILES FURTHER NORTH
WOULD DICTATE BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. STAY TUNED AS FRI AND SAT
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR UPDATES, BUT CURRENTLY THE SOUTHERN MTS
WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF SOME NEW SNOWPACK. AS FOR TEMPS, MUCH
COOLER BOTH DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO
THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN US, PROVIDING FOR DRY AND WARMING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS BOTH DAYS, WHILE THE PLAINS WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
ON SUN, THEN MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MON. MOORE
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MST TUE MAR 4 2025
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. AT KALS, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SELY BY 18Z, BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SW AND INCREASING INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE
AFTER 22Z. AT KCOS, LIGHT E-NE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SELY
BY 16Z, CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO WED EVENING. AT
KPUB, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME E-SE BY 15Z, TRENDING
TOWARD MORE ELY AFTER 23Z.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SIMCOE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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