172
FXUS65 KPUB 051750
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1050 AM MST WED MAR 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXCEPT FOR SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS, IT
WILL BE DRY TODAY ACROSS THE REGION.
- NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER THE PLAINS.
- SNOW MOVING INTO THE CONTDVD TONIGHT, WITH HEAVIEST SNOW AND
WINDIEST CONDITIONS OVER THE SAN JUANS; WATCH ISSUED FOR THE
SAN JUANS STARTING TONIGHT.
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS
ON THURSDAY.
- A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED MAR 5 2025
CURRENTLY...
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE PLAINS AND LARGER VALLEYS. WITH
SOME HIGH WAVE CLOUDS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN MTNS. OVER THE
CONTDVD REGION, CLOUDS WERE MORE PREVALENT. SOME LIGHT ECHOES WERE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS, AND THE FAA WEB CAMS AT KLXV WERE
INDICATING SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS.
TODAY...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS, WE SHOULD
SEE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION TODAY. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD, WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES (M50S) OVER THE PLAINS. M50S WILL
ALSO BE NOTED OVER THE LARGER VALLEYS.
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS BOTH WINDS AND RH
VALUES WILL NOT REACH CRITICAL VALUES. BREEZIEST CONDITIONS TODAY
WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. SFC WIND
FLOW OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
TONIGHT...
SNOW WILL PUSH INTO THE CONTDVD REGION. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS BY EARLY EVENING AND THE SAN JUANS BY LATER
THIS EVENING. WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED OVER THE SAN
JUANS STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL
MTNS ARE FCST TO BE LIGHTER, AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THIS REGION LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL BE PICKING
UP OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS STARTING THIS EVENING, AND IT WILL BECOME
QUITE WINDY OVER THE SAN JUANS TOWARDS MORNING. \/HODANISH
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED MAR 5 2025
THURSDAY..
MODELS BRING OUR NEXT TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING..
FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY..THIS TROUGH BRINGS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TO OUR
AREA FOR A FEW DAYS, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME MUCH NEEDED
SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY, TO INCLUDE THE SAN
JUANS, WHERE WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED THIS MORNING.
SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE WATCH BEGINNING
AT 11PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THOUGH LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
STRAIGHT THROUGH THE END OF SATURDAY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
DISTINCT LULL BETWEEN WAVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE
CHOSEN AN ENDING TIME OF 5AM FRIDAY MORNING FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF
SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 18 OR SO INCHES OVER
THE SAN JUANS, TO AROUND 8 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES OVER THE LA GARITAS AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WITH WIND
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH, WIND DRIVEN SNOW AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER AREA
MOUNTAIN PASSES. WOLF CREEK PASS LOOKS TO BE ESPECIALLY DICEY ON
THURSDAY.
FOR PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS..MODELS BRING THE UPPER JET WITH A
140KT JET CORE OVER US ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO DRY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS.
HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH SOME
70S POSSIBLE ON OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS. VALLEYS LOOK TO WARM INTO
THE 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE HOWLING EVERYWHERE, BUT THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY IS LIKELY TO BE PARTICULARLY WINDY ON THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 50-70% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 11AM THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY. HUERFANO COUNTY WILL
ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY, AS
THIS AREA IS COMING IN QUITE CLOSE TO MEETING THRESHOLDS WITH THIS
MORNING'S RUN. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (60% CHANCE)
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND WINDS GUSTING HIGHER THAN 25MPH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR PROWERS, BACA, AND EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES. ANY
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD SNEAK OFF THE TERRAIN AND INTO
THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA THAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY..
MODELS STILL SHOW DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND TRACK WITH THIS TROUGH
AS IT PUSHES EAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS LEAVES THE
TROUGH OPEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, AND IS SOMEWHAT MORE
PROGRESSIVE. THE EC CLOSES OFF A LOW SOUTH OF OUR BORDER WITH NM,
AND MOVES IT SLOWLY INTO TEXAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN EITHER
SITUATION, OUR MOUNTAINS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS IN PLACE THROUGH BOTH DAYS. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL CHANCES TO OUR PLAINS THAN THE CURRENT EC
RUN. EITHER WAY, MOST AREAS HAVE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN
OR SNOW BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WINDS LOOK TO STAY BREEZY ON FRIDAY, THOUGH
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RECOVER, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SUNDAY ONWARDS..
MODELS PLACE US ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW SIDE OF THE RIDGE FOR SUNDAY,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S
ACROSS OUR PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EASILY SLIDING BACK INTO THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS
AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH
DAYS. WINDS LOOK TO STAY FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THOUGH, WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER CONTROL.
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING IN AROUND THE TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME. DEPENDING ON ITS TIMING, WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND/OR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST WED MAR 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH 24 HOURS.
STARTING THIS EVENING, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SET IN ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW, WITH
KALS STARTING TO GUST TOMORROW MORNING AS CIGS LOWER. WINDS AT KCOS
AND KPUB SHOULD START INCREASING CLOSER TO THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THOUGH TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THIS ROUND OF TAFS,
WILL MONITOR DATA LATER TODAY FOR ANY CHANCE OF LLWS TOMORROW
MORNING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ067-068.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ069>071.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ233-236-237.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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