880
FXUS65 KPUB 052147
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
247 PM MST WED MAR 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN, STEADY SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY THE SAWATCH RANGE AND THE EASTERN
SAN JUANS.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS BLANKET THE AREA TOMORROW. HIGH WIND
WARNING ISSUED OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, WHILE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
- PERIOD OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST WED MAR 5 2025
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT, JUST AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PUSH INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LOOKING AT THE WIND
ORIENTATION, STRONG WSW FLOW WILL FAVOR OROGRAPHICS INTO THE SAN
JUANS AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WHICH WILL NET US THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE UPGRADED THE SAN JUANS
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING, CONSIDERING THE CONSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND THE STRONG WINDS, AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SAWATCH RANGE AS WELL. AMOUNTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LESS THERE THAN THE SAN JUANS, BUT STILL IMPACTFUL. HOWEVER, THE
SNOW WILL FALL SLOWER, LASTING INTO THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
REGARDLESS, LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS, AND BLOWING SNOW WILL STILL RESULT IN TRAVEL
IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY IN/AROUND MOUNTAIN PASSES.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
INCLUDING A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE PEAKS OF THE SANGRES.
INTERESTINGLY, THE WET MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY, AS WILL
MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THURSDAY...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN OVER THE WESTERN STATES ON
THURSDAY, WITH STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS FUNNELING INTO OUR
REGION OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOWNSLOPE INTO THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY, WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS APPROACHING 50 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BRING IN SPOTTY BLOWING
DUST, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT REMAIN DRY AND SNOW EXPANDS ACROSS
THE NEARBY TERRAIN. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE VALLEY, AND AS A RESULT WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG WINDS
THROUGH LA VETA PASS AND INTO HUERFANO COUNTY. HOWEVER, ONLY ABOUT
30% OF NBM MEMBERS CURRENTLY SHOW HUERFANO COUNTY MEETING HIGH WIND
CRITERIA TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND EVEN FEWER OF THE HREF MEMBERS, SO
CHOSE NOT TO EXPAND THE WIND HIGHLIGHT, THOUGH WE DID UPGRADE THE
VALLEY ITSELF TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. HOWEVER, GUSTY GAP FLOW WINDS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS HUERFANO, AND TRAVEL COULD BE
HAZARDOUS ON N-S ORIENTED ROADS, INCLUDING I-25.
LOOKING OUT OVER THE PLAINS, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR CWA BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING, THOUGH NO
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HIT WARNING CRITERIA. VISIBILITY MAY BE
LOWERED IN PLACES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON DUE TO BLOWING DUST, AND
CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN TRAVELING. MEANWHILE, RH VALUES OVER OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL DIP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT, AND WITH THE WINDS
COMING IN CONSISTENTLY STRONG HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE YESTERDAY'S
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING, FOR THE SAME ZONES/TIMES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE AREA, IN THE
40S-50S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND IN THE 60S TO NEAR-70 OVER THE
PLAINS. AS SUCH, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MANAGES TO ESCAPE THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SHOULD JUST FALL AS RAIN, IF IT HITS THE GROUND AT ALL.
THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW, BUT THE SNOW SHOULD STICK CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS,
UNLESS A FEW SHOWERS BLOW OFF TOWARDS THE EAST. FOR THE PLAINS, BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WOULD BE AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. HOWEVER, MOST CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE, AS WELL AS THE
GRAND MAJORITY OF NBM MEMBERS, KEEP EVERYTHING LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST WED MAR 5 2025
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES INTO NEXT WEEK. AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO
REMAIN ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH A LULL
IN ACTIVITY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TWO UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE FIRST WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT, WHILE THE SECOND MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
CONTINUED MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL, ALONG WITH WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM. SNOW LOOKS TO BE HEAVIEST ACROSS
THE SAN JUAN RANGE, WHERE 3 TO 7 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY MORNING. FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. AS FOR WIND, STRONG WINDS WILL BE PRESENT THURSDAY
EVENING, AND WILL DECREASE FOR MUCH OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, AND
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE WILL REMAIN
GUSTY, WITH WINDS NEAR 60 TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS ARIZONA AND TRACK EAST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WIND TURNING
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. UPSLOPE,
MOISTURE AND DECENT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM PASSING TO
THE SOUTH WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AND RAIN LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES. AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 5 KFT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE A QUICK BURST OF PRECIPITATION, WITH UP TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. IF RAIN CAN CHANGE
TO SNOW QUICKLY, TOTALS MAY NEED TO BE BROUGHT UP SLIGHTLY.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. NEAR
CONTINUOUS LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. ALL TOLD, SNOW AMOUNTS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE SAN JUAN RANGE, WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES FORECAST OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO
TEXAS ON SATURDAY. EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TO COME TO AN END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
AWAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE COOL, WITH
40S AND 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS COLORADO LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
NICELY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AS FOR SHIFTS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY, ENHANCED
MIXING WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 60S INTO THE
LOWER 70S. SPOTTY, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. CURRENTLY, STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS ALONG WITH LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MOZLEY
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST WED MAR 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH 24 HOURS.
STARTING THIS EVENING, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SET IN ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW, WITH
KALS STARTING TO GUST TOMORROW MORNING AS CIGS LOWER. WINDS AT KCOS
AND KPUB SHOULD START INCREASING CLOSER TO THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THOUGH TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THIS ROUND OF TAFS,
WILL MONITOR DATA LATER TODAY FOR ANY CHANCE OF LLWS TOMORROW
MORNING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 11 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR COZ060.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
FRIDAY FOR COZ067-068.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
COZ069>071.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ233-
236-237.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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