093
FXUS65 KPUB 060716
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1216 AM MST THU MAR 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN, STEADY SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY THE SAWATCH RANGE AND THE EASTERN
SAN JUANS.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS BLANKET THE AREA TOMORROW. HIGH WIND WARNING
ISSUED OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, WHILE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
- LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE
PLAINS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY (80%
CHANCE) FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO THE HIGH COUNTRY MID-WEEK, WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST WED MAR 5 2025
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT, JUST AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PUSH INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LOOKING AT THE WIND
ORIENTATION, STRONG WSW FLOW WILL FAVOR OROGRAPHICS INTO THE SAN
JUANS AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WHICH WILL NET US THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE UPGRADED THE SAN JUANS
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING, CONSIDERING THE CONSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW AND THE STRONG WINDS, AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SAWATCH RANGE AS WELL. AMOUNTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LESS THERE THAN THE SAN JUANS, BUT STILL IMPACTFUL. HOWEVER, THE
SNOW WILL FALL SLOWER, LASTING INTO THE LONG-TERM PERIOD.
REGARDLESS, LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOME OF
THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS, AND BLOWING SNOW WILL STILL RESULT IN TRAVEL
IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY IN/AROUND MOUNTAIN PASSES.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
INCLUDING A FEW INCHES ACROSS THE PEAKS OF THE SANGRES.
INTERESTINGLY, THE WET MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY, AS WILL
MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THURSDAY...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN OVER THE WESTERN STATES ON
THURSDAY, WITH STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS FUNNELING INTO OUR
REGION OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOWNSLOPE INTO THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY, WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS APPROACHING 50 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BRING IN SPOTTY BLOWING
DUST, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT REMAIN DRY AND SNOW EXPANDS ACROSS
THE NEARBY TERRAIN. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE VALLEY, AND AS A RESULT WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME STRONG WINDS
THROUGH LA VETA PASS AND INTO HUERFANO COUNTY. HOWEVER, ONLY ABOUT
30% OF NBM MEMBERS CURRENTLY SHOW HUERFANO COUNTY MEETING HIGH WIND
CRITERIA TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND EVEN FEWER OF THE HREF MEMBERS, SO
CHOSE NOT TO EXPAND THE WIND HIGHLIGHT, THOUGH WE DID UPGRADE THE
VALLEY ITSELF TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. HOWEVER, GUSTY GAP FLOW WINDS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS HUERFANO, AND TRAVEL COULD BE
HAZARDOUS ON N-S ORIENTED ROADS, INCLUDING I-25.
LOOKING OUT OVER THE PLAINS, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF OUR CWA BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING, THOUGH NO
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HIT WARNING CRITERIA. VISIBILITY MAY BE
LOWERED IN PLACES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON DUE TO BLOWING DUST, AND
CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN TRAVELING. MEANWHILE, RH VALUES OVER OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL DIP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT, AND WITH THE WINDS
COMING IN CONSISTENTLY STRONG HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE YESTERDAY'S
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING, FOR THE SAME ZONES/TIMES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE AREA, IN THE
40S-50S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND IN THE 60S TO NEAR-70 OVER THE
PLAINS. AS SUCH, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MANAGES TO ESCAPE THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SHOULD JUST FALL AS RAIN, IF IT HITS THE GROUND AT ALL.
THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW, BUT THE SNOW SHOULD STICK CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS,
UNLESS A FEW SHOWERS BLOW OFF TOWARDS THE EAST. FOR THE PLAINS, BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WOULD BE AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. HOWEVER, MOST CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE, BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE, AS WELL AS THE
GRAND MAJORITY OF NBM MEMBERS, KEEP EVERYTHING LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS
DRY THROUGH TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM MST THU MAR 6 2025
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY..
FRIDAY MORNING WILL MARK A LULL IN RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES FOR MOST
AREAS, AS WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MODELS
TRACK OUR NEXT LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY,
BRINGING IT INTO NEW MEXICO BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, WITH MOST OTHER AREAS REMAINING CLEAR FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS
BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY THROUGHOUT FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVER AND NEAR OUR
EASTERN MOUNTAINS, WITH RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
EVENING FURTHER EAST OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE
LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FULL TRANSITION TO SNOW BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
OR SO AT THE LATEST. THIS TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER
IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON OUR PLAINS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT FROM THE TIME SNOW DEVELOPS ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF SNOW CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING, MOST
AREAS EAST OF I-25 ARE LIKELY TO SEE LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF NEW
SNOW, THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE WITH A QUICK TRANSITION OUT OF LIQUID
PRECIP. LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 COULD SEE CLOSER TO
1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION,
THE RATON MESA, THE SANGRES, AND THE WETS, ALL SEEING TOTALS OF
AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES. LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 30S ALL DAY, WITH 40S PERSISTING
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50,
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S ARE LIKELY, WITH 40S ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY. MODELS BRING THE LOW INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT AN END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS, AND AROUND 5 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL. THIS WILL
MEAN HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND FOR MUCH OF THE
PLAINS, WITH A FEW LOW 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER
BASIN.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY..
ON SUNDAY, MODELS PLACE US ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW SIDE OF THE RIDGE,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S
ACROSS OUR PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EASILY SLIDING BACK INTO THE 70S. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW ARE EXPECTED
FOR BOTH DAYS. WINDS LOOK TO STAY FAIRLY WEAK FOR SUNDAY UNDER THE
RIDGE, BUT THEY WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER AS WE TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY. THIS COULD MEAN PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR PLAINS.
TUESDAY ONWARDS..
MODELS ARE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT ANOTHER
SYSTEM COMING IN AROUND THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
DEPENDING ON ITS TIMING, A SECOND AND MORE WIDESPREAD DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR OUR PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE BACK IN FOR THE HIGH
COUNTRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
THIS MID-WEEK SYSTEM LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, KEEPING VERY
LOW POPS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. MODELS HINT AT A
SECOND, MORE POTENT SYSTEM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK THOUGH,
WHICH COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES BACK INTO THE
PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MST WED MAR 5 2025
STRONG WINDS ARE GOING TO BE MAIN ISSUE STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON
AND MAY LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF FCST PERIOD FOR ALL 3
TAF SITES, KPUB, KCOS AND KALS. VFR IS LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD BUT BLOWING DUST MAY BE AN ISSUE AT TIMES ONCE THE
WINDS GET CRANKED UP.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ060.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ067-068.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ069>071.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ233-236-237.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...HODANISH
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