448
FXUS65 KPUB 061117
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
417 AM MST THU MAR 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY, WIND DRIVEN, SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.
- DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 TO 65 MPH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BLOWING DUST BECOMING A CONCERN IN THESE
AREAS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS, ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
- LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE
PLAINS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
(80% CHANCE) FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO THE HIGH COUNTRY MID-WEEK, WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST THU MAR 6 2025
WHILE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, MOST OF THE SNOW HAS BEEN FOCUSED OVER
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO BACKING MID/UPPER FLOW, OUT AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SIMILAR TRENDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH AGAIN, MOST OF THE SNOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. BY MID TO LATE
MORNING, THIS SNOW DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REALLY RAMP UP AS
VORTICITY MAXIMA SWINGING AROUND THIS LARGE TROUGH PUSH
OVERHEAD, AND AS AN UPPER JET PUSHES OVERHEAD. THIS SHOULD
ASSIST WITH EXPANDING SNOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AS WELL, DESPITE SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE.
THIS VERY ENERGETIC MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON, AS THE 700MB TROUGH ALSO SWINGS THROUGH. THIS WILL
LIKELY ASSIST WITH INCREASES IN SNOW INTENSITY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WITH EVEN SOME OF THIS DEVELOPMENT MOVING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PERIOD AND
FOR THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WHERE STRONG FORCING AND WEAK
INSTABILITY IN PLACE COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED HEAVIER
BURSTS OF SNOW. SOME GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THESE SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO PORTION OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IF THEY
DO, THEY WILL LIKELY BE RAIN.
BY THIS EVENING, FOCUS REMAINS ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
INITIAL VEERING WINDS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL
INITIALLY HELP TO DIMINISH THIS SNOW, BUT WILL THEN SEE FLOW
REALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME DISORGANIZED TONIGHT. ULTIMATELY,
DIMINISHING THE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE MAINTAINED SIMILAR SNOW TOTALS THIS
PERIOD, WITH THE HEAVIEST STILL ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN SAN
JUANS. DID EXPAND THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO INCLUDE THE LA
GARITA MOUNTAINS, MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR BOTH THE SNOW AND THE
STRONG WINDS/GUSTS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, THOUGH
DID DEBATE UPGRADING TO A WARNING. AGAIN, THE WINDS/GUSTS ARE A
CONCERN, BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT.
REGARDING THE HIGH WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY, DID
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO BOTH THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND RED FLAG
WARNING. WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE TRICKY THIS PERIOD, MAINLY
LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER, GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR
THE JET AXIS TO SWING THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE
WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASING OVER FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CO AND NM BORDER. STILL ANTICIPATE
WINDS UP TO 60 TO 65 OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, BUT IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE TRENDS, DID EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WARNING
TO INCLUDE HUERFANO AND W. LAS ANIMAS. COULD SEE THESE HIGHER
GUSTS SPREAD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER TODAY AS WELL,
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. DURING THIS TIME,
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH FALLING RH VALUES WILL SUPPORT
AN INCREASED RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. RH VALUES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO STILL FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT, BUT WITH THE
MAIN CONCERN THE STRONGER WINDS/GUSTS. SO, DID EXPAND THE RED
FLAG WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS. BY THIS EVENING,
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS DIMINISHING,
BUT WITH 700MB FLOW REALLY RAMPING TONIGHT, AM CONCERNED WINDS
COULD STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN. THIS WOULD BE FOR ALL AREAS LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WILL LET THE DAY
SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT, LOOKING INTO THE POSSIBLE
EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM MST THU MAR 6 2025
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY..
FRIDAY MORNING WILL MARK A LULL IN RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES FOR MOST
AREAS, AS WE REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. MODELS
TRACK OUR NEXT LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY,
BRINGING IT INTO NEW MEXICO BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, WITH MOST OTHER AREAS REMAINING CLEAR FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS
BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY THROUGHOUT FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO UPSLOPE ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVER AND NEAR OUR
EASTERN MOUNTAINS, WITH RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
EVENING FURTHER EAST OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE
LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FULL TRANSITION TO SNOW BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
OR SO AT THE LATEST. THIS TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER
IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON OUR PLAINS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-25. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT FROM THE TIME SNOW DEVELOPS ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF SNOW CHANCES ON SATURDAY MORNING, MOST
AREAS EAST OF I-25 ARE LIKELY TO SEE LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF NEW
SNOW, THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE WITH A QUICK TRANSITION OUT OF LIQUID
PRECIP. LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 COULD SEE CLOSER TO
1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION,
THE RATON MESA, THE SANGRES, AND THE WETS, ALL SEEING TOTALS OF
AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES. LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 30S ALL DAY, WITH 40S PERSISTING
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50,
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S ARE LIKELY, WITH 40S ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY. MODELS BRING THE LOW INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT AN END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT SATURDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS, AND AROUND 5 OR SO
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS AS WELL. THIS WILL
MEAN HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND FOR MUCH OF THE
PLAINS, WITH A FEW LOW 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER
BASIN.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY..
ON SUNDAY, MODELS PLACE US ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW SIDE OF THE RIDGE,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S
ACROSS OUR PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS EASILY SLIDING BACK INTO THE 70S. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW ARE EXPECTED
FOR BOTH DAYS. WINDS LOOK TO STAY FAIRLY WEAK FOR SUNDAY UNDER THE
RIDGE, BUT THEY WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER AS WE TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY. THIS COULD MEAN PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR PLAINS.
TUESDAY ONWARDS..
MODELS ARE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT ANOTHER
SYSTEM COMING IN AROUND THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
DEPENDING ON ITS TIMING, A SECOND AND MORE WIDESPREAD DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR OUR PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE BACK IN FOR THE HIGH
COUNTRY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
THIS MID-WEEK SYSTEM LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, KEEPING VERY
LOW POPS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. MODELS HINT AT A
SECOND, MORE POTENT SYSTEM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK THOUGH,
WHICH COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES BACK INTO THE
PLAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 417 AM MST THU MAR 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES, KCOS, KPUB, AND
KALS, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN FORECAST IMPACT FOR TODAY, WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KT AT
KCOS AND KPUB, AND GUSTS TO 50KT POSSIBLE FOR KALS. VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNRESTRICTED, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST COULD LEAD TO TEMPORARILY DEGRADED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY AT KALS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IS LIKELY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, WITH CLEARING
MOVING IN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ060.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ066>068.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ069>071-087-088.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR COZ229-230-232-233-235>237.
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...EHR
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