363
FXUS65 KPUB 062332
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
432 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS WILL LAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT, WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY.
- STEADY MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES
THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTNS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS/GREATEST IMPACTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRES INTO THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE OFFING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
CONTDVD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025
CURRENTLY...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, AND STRONGER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS, NOT ALL AREAS HAVE MIXED YET, WITH THE UN-
MIXED AREAS HANGING ON TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE, MRMS REFLECTIVITY SHOWS CONTINUING SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO COVER LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.
REST OF TODAY-FRIDAY...
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON, WANING AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND BRINGING
AN END TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE SE PLAINS. WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM OUR WEST, MOISTURE ADVECTION AND GOOD
OROGRAPHICS WILL CONTINUE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS, WITH LIGHTER SNOW OVER THE SANGRES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SINK INTO THE HIGH-20S TO LOW-30S OVER THE
PLAINS, AND TEENS-20S OVER THE VALLEYS.
LOOKING AT FRIDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN
STATES AS A LEE CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF US. AS IT PROGRESSES, A COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS OUR EASTERN PLAINS, LATE FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S-50S ACROSS THE
AREA. OUR GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN EAST-NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT, WITH BREEZY UPSLOPE WINDS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION OVER
OUR SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE JUST EAST OF THE TERRAIN, DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG AND
CONSISTENT THAT POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE IS. WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL
LULL A BIT DURING THE DAY, BOTH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, THE
INCOMING LOW WILL INCREASE FLOW, MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND PUSH IN
SOME EXTRA VORTICITY TO THE TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS COVER
WILL INCREASE, AND PRECIP CHANCES RISE QUICKLY AS WE MOVE TOWARDS
FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH HOW CONSISTENT THE SNOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE
LATEST MODELS, BEST CONFIDENCE FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER
THE PEAKS OF THE MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY THE SAN JUANS AND SOUTHERN
SANGRES, FOLLOWED BY THE MOSQUITOS AND THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE EASTERLY WINDS, SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE ALSO HAS POPS INCREASING A BIT EARLY OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE/PIKES PEAK REGION AS WELL AS SOUTHERN I-25, SO THOSE AREAS
MAY SEE SNOW AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THESE AREAS, THERE MAY BE SOME IMPACTS TO THE
EVENING COMMUTE CAUSED BY SLICK ROADS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THIS DEVELOPS BROAD EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NORTH TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THAT
SAID, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE FOCUS OF
HEAVIER SNOW SHIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTNS AND THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR, AS WELL AS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUANS AND LA GARITAS
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON
THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW, AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO, WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONGER/WEAKER EASTERLY UPSLOPE, WE HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND RATON MESA,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN SAN JUANS WITH AN
EXPECTED LULL IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE SNOW PICKS
UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, SNOW TAPPERS AND ENDS NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND
MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, SAVE FOR INTO THE
40S ACROSS THE HIGH MTN VALLEYS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY,
WITH SLOWLY INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, AHEAD
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL BRING GENERALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, WARMEST ON
MONDAY, WITH BREEZY WESTERLY AFTERNOON WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY,
LEADING TO SPOTTY CORTISOL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
ON TUESDAY, AS PASSING WAVE BRINGS CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CORTISOL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE OFFING FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH
INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING EASTERN PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD ONCE AGAIN. FOR LATE NEXT WEEK, MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES, THOUGH THE VARYING LOCATION OF DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
WILL DETERMINE THE IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 422 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS.
MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND WIND
SHIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL PASSAGE AND ACTUAL FROPA.
FOR KCOS AND KPUB, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
ABOUT 04-05Z THIS EVENING, THEN WINDS SHOULD SHIFT AROUND TO
WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER AND REMAIN GUSTY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THE TAF SITES DURING THE LATE MORNING TIME PERIOD (17UTC)
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AND BE A
BIT GUSTY.
FOR KALS, GUSTYSOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH ABOUT 04 UTC,
THEN DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ060.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ066>068.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ069>071-
087-088.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR COZ074-075-087-088-094.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ229-230-
232-233-235>237.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH
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