682
FXUS65 KPUB 071754
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1054 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY, WIND DRIVEN SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHERE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FROM 5 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
- WARMER AND DRIER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
CURRENTLY..
WINDS ARE GUSTING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR MOUNTAIN/PLAINS
INTERFACE. AS OF 2AM, GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED DOWN TO
AROUND 8,000FT FOR A COUPLE OF SITES IN WESTERN LAS ANIMAS AND
EXTREME WESTERN EL PASO COUNTIES. THESE GUSTS ARE A RESULT OF THE
TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH, AND THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST
LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY LAST MINUTE HIGHLIGHTS. RAMPART RESERVOIR,
USAFA, AND FORT CARSON HAVE ALL NOTED 50 MPH GUSTS SINCE MIDNIGHT AS
WELL, THOUGH WINDS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OUR DEPARTING
LEE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER JET SUPPORT PUSHING EAST OF US,
WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SKIES
ARE CLEAR FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 20S OVER HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WINDS ARE GUSTY OUT
OF THE WEST ACROSS MOST AREAS. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CO.
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
FOR THE PLAINS..MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS, WHICH LOOKS TO BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION AND WIND IMPACTS, AND LESS OF AN ACTUAL TEMPERATURE
DROP FOR MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS STILL LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S
AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS. STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT THIS MORNING, TURNING NORTHEASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
EASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EAST WINDS WILL HELP
TO DEEPEN OR UPSLOPE, AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
OUR PLAINS AS OUR NEXT LOW APPROACHES, INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND FLOW IN GENERAL. CLOUD COVER INCREASES FIRST AS UPSLOPE
DEVELOPS, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVENTUALLY FOLLOWING OVER AND
NEAR OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHEST AND
SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE HEAVIEST OVER THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES, ALONG WITH THE
RATON MESA, FOR 5 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 11 AM SATURDAY MORNING.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ON OUR PLAINS LOOK TO RANGE FROM GENERALLY LESS THAN
2 INCHES OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTY AND
AREAS ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND CANON CITY TO SPRINGFIELD. BACA
COUNTY HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS ITS SOUTHWEST CORNER. SOUTHWEST OF THAT
CANON CITY TO SPRINGFIELD LINE, SNOW INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AS
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE SITS OVER US. UPWARDS OF A FOOT OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES, WITH 18 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER THE RATON MESA. THE MAIN FORECAST WILD CARD WILL BE
THE PIKES PEAK REGION THIS TIME, AS AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY LOWER FURTHER NORTH. THAT SAID, WIND DRIVEN SNOW AND SLICK
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD IMPACT THIS EVENING'S
COMMUTE ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT ROAD CONDITIONS. SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO TOMORROW FOR MOST AREAS.
FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY..WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SAN JUANS, THE WETS, AND THE SOUTHERN SANGRES, WITH NEW WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SAN LUIS
VALLEY, AND THE NORTHERN SANGRES. ALL OF THESE ZONES ARE LIKELY TO
SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY WIND DRIVEN SNOW, WITH A FOCUS OVER EAST FACING
SLOPES. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL SEE MUCH HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ZONE THAN THE EASTERN HALF, THANKS
AGAIN TO UPSLOPE. GIVEN THE CHANCE FOR +40 MPH EAST WINDS SPILLING
INTO THE VALLEY TONIGHT, WENT AHEAD WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE SLV AS
WELL DESPITE LOWER TOTALS. HIGHEST MOUNTAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE SOUTHERN SANGRES, WHERE 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE, THEN THE
WETS AND THE SAN JUANS, WHERE 8 TO 11 INCHES LOOK LIKELY, THEN THE
NORTHERN SANGRES, WHERE 4 TO 8 APPEAR LIKELY. TOTALS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN THESE AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY,
THOUGH WIND DRIVEN SNOW AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD OVER OUR MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY FOR LA VETA
PASS. SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO TOMORROW
FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY, AND WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
CONTINUED SNOWFALL ALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS OVER TO THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES BY THE AFTERNOON, AND ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. ALL CURRENT
HIGHLIGHTS ARE SET TO END BY 11 AM, WITH DRIER BUT COOL NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW THEN SETTLING IN ACROSS THE STATE FOR THE EVENING.
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, BUT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40F, AND DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SNOWFALL
THOSE TEMPS MAY BE TOO WARM. OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND
AROUND 20F FOR THE PLAINS UNDER CLEARING SKIES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN US, PROVIDING FOR DRY AND WARMING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS BOTH DAYS, WHILE THE PLAINS WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
ON SUN, THEN MID 60S TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON MON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON RATHER BRISK WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ONE UPPER LOW TRACKING TO THE
SOUTH OF CO IN THE LATE TUE INTO WED TIME FRAME, THEN A PACIFIC
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND
DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW FOR THU. THIS THU SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MUCH
MORE SIGNIFICANT. THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE REINTRODUCES PCPN TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE STARTING TUE AFTERNOON, BUT FEEL THAT THIS IS A
BIT TOO EARLY CONSIDERING THE SOUTHERN LOW MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO
EVEN INITIATE ANYTHING. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE AS IS, BUT FEEL THAT
MORE ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE. AS FOR TEMPS, SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT
MILD AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND 60S FOR THE PLAINS EACH DAY. MOORE
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
AT KCOS, VFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LOWERING
TOWARD MVFR AROUND 00Z. MVFR CIGS/VIS 00Z-10Z WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS, AND SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE
UNDER ANY HEAVIER PRECIP. SNOW TAPERS OFF TO VCSH SAT MORNING,
THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH 18Z.
AT KPUB, VFR CIGS DEVELOP AND LOWER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VCSH
AFTER 00Z. IFR CONDITIONS START AROUND 02Z AS SNOW DEVELOPS,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED AFTER 15Z AS SNOW TRENDS BACK
TOWARD VCSH.
AT KALS, VFR THIS AFTERNOON, THEN QUICKLY BECOMING IFR THIS
EVENING AFTER 02Z AS SNOW DEVELOPS. IFR/SNOW CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING, THEN A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AFTER
15Z SAT. A PERIOD OF GUSTY (G30-35 KTS) EAST WINDS LIKELY
02Z-15Z, AS COLD AIR DEEPENS EAST OF THE SANGRES, THEN SPILLS
INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH MOSCA/LA VETA PASSES.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
COZ060.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ067-068-074-075-079-080-087-088-094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ070>073-099.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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