380
FXUS65 KPUB 080526
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1026 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY SNOW OVER THE WETS/SANGRES/ERN SAN JUANS AND SOUTHERN
I-25 CORRIDOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE OFFING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS BRINGS INCREASED FIRE DANGER MONDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTDVD FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER AZ THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE 4 CORNERS AS OF 2 PM. FARTHER EAST, SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN NEAR KTAD, WITH COLD FRONT AND GUSTY E-NE UPSLOPE WINDS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAVEN'T SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP SO
FAR TODAY, THOUGH INCREASING INSTABILITY WAS POPPING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION AT MID-AFTERNOON, AS CLOUDS SLOWLY
FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK DUE EAST OVER NM
TONIGHT, THEN EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OK ON
SAT. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE LOW WILL INCREASE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH STRONGEST LIFT/HEAVIEST SNOW IN
ROUGHLY THE 03Z-10Z TIME FRAME. STILL SOME LINGERING SNOW SATURDAY
MORNING, MAINLY NEAR THE NM/OK BORDER, THEN A GENERAL DOWNTREND IN
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW DEPARTS. AREAS
FAVORED FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE TO BE THE EASTERN SAN JUANS,
SOUTHERN SANGRES AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR FROM COLORADO CITY TO
RATON PASS, WHERE DYNAMIC LIFT AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE OF 15-25 KTS
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE 1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING STORM TOTALS OVER A FOOT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING CUCHARA AND RATON PASS), WITH 8-12
TRINIDAD/WALSENBURG. WET MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALSO DO WELL, THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A RATHER SHARP DROP-OFF IN SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN END
OF THE RANGE. PLAINS ALONG THE NM/OK BORDER FROM LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
EASTWARD TO THE KS LINE WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL INCHES AS WELL, AS
SNOW LINGERS HERE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FOR COLORADO
SPRING/TELLER COUNTY, ACCUMS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE EXPECTED, AS
BEST LIFT IS FARTHER SOUTH, THOUGH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE/CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT MAY NUDGE UP AMOUNTS AROUND PIKES PEAK/CHEYENNE
MOUNTAIN. PUEBLO METRO AREA SHOULD SEE 1-3 AS WELL, THOUGH RAIN
INITIALLY MAY LIMIT ROAD ACCUMS/IMPACTS. SHARP GRADIENT JUST SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF TOWN, WITH AMOUNTS APPROACHING A FOOT OVER THE
SOUTHERN WETS, 6-8 INCHES COLORADO CITY AREA.
REGARDING HIGHLIGHTS, HAVEN'T MADE MANY CHANGES, THOUGH DID DROP THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM THE ADVISORY AS BEST FORCING STAYS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50, AND ONLY A LOCAL INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS
FORECAST. REMAINING HIGHLIGHTS FARTHER SOUTH LEFT UNCHANGED IN BOTH
TIME AND AREAL COVERAGE.
NOT MUCH COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO ONCE CLOUDS BREAK AND PRECIP
ENDS SATURDAY, MOST LOCATIONS BELOW 8000 FEET WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE
FREEZING, AND EXPECT A FAIRLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN ROAD CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, AS A PASSING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. THE WARMEST
READINGS LOOK TO BE ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH TEMPERATURES IN 40S AND 50S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH DRY AIR AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN
PLACE ON MONDAY, THERE WILL BE PATCHY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES OF
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.
PASSING WAVES BRING ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES REGIONWIDE,
WITH VERY PATCHY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE WEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS THE CONTDVD, WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BRINGING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITONS TO MOST
OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON THURSDAY. WHERE THE SYSTEM GOES AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES REMAINS IN QUESTION, WITH MODELS DIFFERING
ON LOCATION OF THE STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM RUN TO RUN.
THE LATEST GEFS AND GEPS ENSEMBLE MEAN DATA FAVOR A FURTHER NORTH
TRACK KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WHERE
AS THE LATEST EPS TRACK IS FURTHER SOUTH, BRINGING THE BEST
PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. TIME
WILL TELL WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL GO, HOWEVER, STAY TUNED TO FORECAST
FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT STORM SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
KCOS AND KPUB...
LOW CIGS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS FCST. THE LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLY
SOME BR WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MID MORNING, THEN VFR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
KALS...
SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THE SNOW HAS HAD A HARD TIME REACHING KALS BUT
RADAR ECHOES WERE INCREASING OVER THE TAF SITE AT THE TIME OF
THIS DISCUSSION. BELIEVE KALS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING 1 TO
2 INCHES OF SNOW INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
LATE TOMORROW MORNING THEN, VFR REST OF FCST PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ067-068-
074-075-079-080-087-088-094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY FOR
COZ070>073-099.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH/PETERSEN
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