702
FXUS65 KPUB 081001
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
301 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGHOUT OUR SATURDAY, GIVING WAY TO COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS.
- SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS MONDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
- SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT COLORADO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
CURRENTLY..
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES UNDER
BANDED SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON THE
PLAINS, AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS AND WESTERN
EDGES OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. AREA WEBCAMS SHOW SLICK AND SNOW
COVERED ROADS IN ALL OF THESE AREAS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS SHOWING
VISIBILITIES UNDER 1/2 MILE. THOUGH SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEGAN TO
DECREASE IN SEVERAL AREAS, HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO DEGRADED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AND SLICK SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THROUGH OBSERVATIONS. AS OF 2 AM, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S
AND LOW 30S ACROSS OUR PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WINDS ARE STILL
MAINLY EASTERLY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE PULLS THE LOW INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON, EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF OUR SNOW
CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. OUR SOUTHERNMOST PLAINS LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE CLEAR OF SNOW CHANCES BY AROUND 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON OR SO, WITH A
FEW FLURRIES REMAINING POSSIBLE OVER OUT SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN THROUGH
THIS EVENING. OVERALL, ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FAIRLY LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER THE RATON MESA, 2 TO 4 POSSIBLE OVER OUR SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS, AND LESS THAN 2 INCHES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. THOUGH SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY DECREASE EARLIER
FOR PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA, WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN SET TO PERSIST THROUGH 11 AM. AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 ARE LIKELY DONE WITH MEASURABLE SNOWFALL CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF TODAY. TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM THIS MORNING
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MODELS CLEAR US OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING THOUGH, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST MOUNTAIN
VALLEY AND PLAINS LOCATIONS TO WARM INTO THE 40S. WARMEST SPOTS WILL
BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS, WHERE A FEW LOW 50S MAY BE POSSIBLE.
COOLEST SPOTS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR, WHERE
EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT WARMING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEY
AND PLAINS LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY,
PROVIDING FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE HOTTEST DAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE MONDAY, AND AS THE RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS COLORADO, SPOTTY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS MON AFTERNOON. FOR BOTH SUN AND TUE, PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE PLAINS. ON
MON, TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS, AND MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE PLAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
BRINGING AN OPEN UPPER WAVE ACROSS AZ AND NM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED,
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL
AS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE FAST-MOVING AND CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE
EFFECTS TO AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOW FOR MAINLY THE PEAKS OF THE
SOUTHERN MTS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY WARM ACROSS
THE PLAINS DUE TO THE CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE, WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S, WHILE THE HIGH VALLEYS WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN
INTO THE 50S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A LONGWAVE
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST EARLY THU,
PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF CO AS WELL AS
IMPRESSIVE DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR EASTERN CO. AS THIS TROUGH STRENGTHENS,
THE LOW WRAPS UP AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD AND BY FRI IT WILL BECOME A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US. THEREFORE, FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE FOR
THU THE MTS WILL START RECEIVING A ROUND OF NEW SNOW BY THE
AFTERNOON, WHILE THE EASTERN PLAINS WARMS UP WITH POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. EARLY FRI A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
CO AS THE LOW DEEPENS DIRECTLY TO OUR EAST, AND PRECIPITATION
SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THU AND FRI WILL GIVE THE AREA SOME
TEMPERATURE WHIPLASH, WITH HIGHS ON THU IN THE 50S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE PLAINS. FOR FRI, PLAN ON HIGHS
IN THE 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 40S AND 50S FOR THE PLAINS.
MOORE
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
KCOS AND KPUB...
LOW CIGS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS FCST. THE LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLY
SOME BR WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MID MORNING, THEN VFR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
KALS...
SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THE SNOW HAS HAD A HARD TIME REACHING KALS BUT
RADAR ECHOES WERE INCREASING OVER THE TAF SITE AT THE TIME OF
THIS DISCUSSION. BELIEVE KALS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING 1 TO
2 INCHES OF SNOW INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
LATE TOMORROW MORNING THEN, VFR REST OF FCST PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ067-
068-074-075-079-080-087-088-094.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
COZ070>073-099.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH
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