191
FXUS65 KPUB 082130
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
230 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD SPRING WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY.
- WARM, BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS BRINGS INCREASED FIRE DANGER
MONDAY.
- AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- WARM AND WINDY THURSDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HIGH
IMPACT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIPPING EASTWARD FROM NM INTO WRN TX THIS
AFTERNOON, AND MAIN PRECIP SHIELD HAS DROPPED SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CO INTO TX AND OK. IN GENERAL, STORM UNDERPERFORMED IN CO, WITH
HEAVIEST REPORTED SNOWFALL SO FAR OF ABOUT 6 INCHES IN/AROUND
TRINIDAD, WHILE 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS WERE NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY (DEL NORTE/MONTE VISTA), WETS/SANGRES AND ACROSS LAS
ANIMAS/BACA COUNTIES. FOR TONIGHT, UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PULL
AWAY, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
ACROSS SRN CO. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING AT ALL
LOCATIONS, WITH TEENS/SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS. LOW CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY WERE MOISTURE FROM MELTING SNOW MAY HELP MOISTEN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. ON SUNDAY, UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE STATE, BRINGING WARMER AIR AND GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND NICELY AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH 50S/60S WIDESPREAD AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. DID CUT BACK
MAXES JUST A FEW DEGF TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME RESIDUAL SNOW COVER OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES, THOUGH EVEN HERE, STRONG MARCH SUN WILL MELT MUCH OF
THE SNOWPACK BY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
ON SUNDAY, FLATTENS OVERHEAD LEADING TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY, AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ON MONDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE, ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS, THERE WILL BE SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE GAP PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES OF
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY ALONG THE CONTDVD.
PASSING WAVES WILL ONLY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES REGIONWIDE,
WITH PATCHY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE WEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS THE CONTDVD, WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BRINGING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITONS TO MOST
OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
WHERE THE SYSTEM GOES AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY REMAINS IN QUESTION, WITH OPERATIONAL MODELS DIFFERING ON
THE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL CYCLONE AS WELL AS ITS
SURFACE REFLECTION. THE LATEST EPS AND GEPS ENSEMBLE MEAN DATA FAVOR
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE FRIDAY
MORNING, WHICH QUICKLY LIFTS NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE GEFS MEAN JUST A TAD FASTER AND FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW FRIDAY MORNING. THE FURTHER NORTH GEFS
SOLUTION KEEPS THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WHERE
AS THE FURTHER SOUTH EPS AND GEPS WOULD BRING BETTER PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. LOCATION AND TIMING, ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL STILL NEED TO DETERMINED TO SEE WHERE
THE HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM SNOW VS RAIN WILL BE ACROSS REGION, ALONG
WITH ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATING STRONG, AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING,
NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. THOSE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO LATER THIS WEEK SHOULD STAY
ABREAST OF THE FORECAST FOR ANOTHER POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT STORM
SYSTEM.
BEYOND FRIDAY, MODEL DATA SUPPORT NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG ON SATURDAY,
WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS, WITH CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
AT KCOS, VFR THE NEXT 24 HRS, WITH GENERALLY NORTH WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
AT KPUB, STUBBORN MVFR STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR 19Z-20Z, WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON ONWARD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL TREND TOWARD LIGHT NELY AFTER 22Z, BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO
W-NW DRAINAGE FLOWS AFTER 04Z.
AT KALS, ONE LAST ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS 18Z-19Z WILL PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR, THEN CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR
FROM 19Z ONWARD. WINDS WILL TREND TOWARD MORE N-NW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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