418
FXUS65 KPUB 091726
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1126 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
- DRY AND WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
- SPRING STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 20S TO AROUND 30F FOR THE PLAINS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, PROVIDING FOR PLENTY OF
SUN, GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VERY MILD SPRING-LIKE TEMPS. PLAN ON
HIGHS TODAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 60S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO
COOL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 20S TO AROUND
30F FOR THE PLAINS. MOORE
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
MONDAY - TUESDAY: THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BRING RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. SYNOPTICALLY, A
RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY, AND WHILE IT WILL FLATTEN SOME
TUESDAY, WILL BE IN PLACE THEN AS WELL. WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION. OTHERWISE,
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED. WITH THAT ALL SAID THOUGH, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TYPICAL GAP FLOW PRONE AREAS
BOTH DAYS GIVEN BREEZIER WINDS IN THESE MORE LOCALIZED AREAS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK GIVEN MODEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
WITH WELL ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES FOR MOST. TUESDAY WILL SEE A
COOL DOWN FOR MANY THANKS TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO
THE REGION, THOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES.
WEDNESDAY: FOR MIDWEEK, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. AN
OPEN SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA, THOUGH THE CORE OF THE WAVE
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF COLORADO. STILL THOUGH, A MINOR UPTICK IN
FORCING AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO BLOSSOM
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. BEYOND ALL OF THAT, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
ANTICIPATED, ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING, THOUGH
WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES, WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE COOLER TREND FROM TUESDAY,
THOUGH WILL REMAIN STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES FOR MID
MARCH.
THURSDAY - SATURDAY: FOR THE END OF THE NEW WEEK, ACTIVE, AND
POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT, WEATHER RETURNS TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A LARGE TROUGH WILL START TO SWING TOWARDS
THE AREA THURSDAY, PUSH OVER THE REGION FRIDAY, AND EXIT THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. FOR THURSDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE WAVE APPROACHES, AND THEN FRIDAY, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE MORE AREA WIDE, WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION REMAINING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE
FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST, BOTH OF THESE DAYS. FOR SATURDAY, ANY
PRECIPITATION STILL PRESENT WILL STEADILY LESSEN IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST.
ALONG WITH ALL OF THAT, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER STRONG LEE
CYCLONE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AS THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONGER JET SWING
OVER THE AREA. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW DEVELOPING EARLY
FRIDAY AND THEN QUICKLY EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
THIS LEE CYCLONE COULD BRING WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY, WIND DRIVEN PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS. WITH DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (70%) IN
THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING. WITH THAT SAID THOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) IN EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE
CYCLONE, WHICH WILL PLAY HUGE ROLES IN THE ULTIMATE IMPACTS THE
REGION EXPERIENCES. OUTSIDE OF ALL OF THAT, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER, WITH SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING OUT
SATURDAY, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FOR ALL THREE DAYS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE THREE, WITH THE
MAIN STORM SYSTEM BEING TOO FAR WEST TO SHOVE ANY COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD. THEN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, COLDER AIR RETURNS AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD, DROPPING MUCH OF THE AREA TO
BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS, WITH DIURNAL WIND CYCLE
UNDER 12 KTS CONTINUING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ220>222-227>229-231-
234.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page