060
FXUS65 KPUB 130911
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
311 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY.
- WARM AGAIN TODAY, BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY.
- COOL FRONT CROSSES THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING.
- SOME (SNOW) SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT GENERALLY NORTH OF US-50.
- COOLER FOR MONDAY THEN WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WED AND THU.
- UPPER LOW COULD BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
CURRENTLY...
A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE
MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 30S AND 40S IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS. MTN TOPS WERE EVEN WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, A COOL FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NE W-SW
TO SOUTH CENTRAL WY. A SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS OF COLORADO.
TODAY...
IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD OVER MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. I HAVE ADDED TELLER AND
NORTHERN EL PASO AND CROWLEY COUNTIES TO THE CURRENT RED FLAG
WARNING WHICH WAS ALREADY IN EFFECT. A COOL FRONT WILL MAKE
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TODAY, AND WILL LIKELY GET INTO OUT EASTERN
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE MORNING, BUT WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE ALL OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR REGION IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT
COULD GET RATHER WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR, WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE VALLEYS AND MTNS.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S MOST OF THE
PLAINS WITH 70S OVER EL PASO COUNTY. TEMPS AROUND 70 WILL OCCUR IN
THE LARGER VALLEYS.
TONIGHT...
BY THIS EVENING, A STRONGER SURGE IS LIKELY TO PUSH SOUTH AND THIS
WILL PUSH THE FRONT DOWN TOWARDS NEW MEXICO BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT WITH
EASTERLIES GETTING INTO THE VALLEY FLOOR.
MORE IMPORTANTLY, WE SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TELLER AND
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. THE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN TELLER WILL LIKELY
BE SNOW, AND AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW COULD OCCUR. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY EVEN REACH THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WET MTNS, AND CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS. IT IS LIKELY
THAT ALL OF THE PLAINS WILL BECOME CLOUDY BY LATE TONIGHT WITH
RH VALUES RECOVERING TO RESPECTABLE VALUES TOWARDS SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING.
MIN TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD DECREASE INTO THE 30S AND L40S
TONIGHT PLAINS, WITH SOME TEMPS AROUND FREEZING IN NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY. TEMPS AROUND FREEZING WILL OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS
TONIGHT WITH 20S MTNS. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATION IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND PIKES PEAK. \/HODANISH
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER FOR MONDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF ONLY MARGINALLY SO ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WITH A DROP BACK OF ONLY AROUND 3-5
DEGREES. MORNING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS BANKED UP
ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS WILL
GRADUALLY BURN OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS REDEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. QUITE A BIT OF STABILITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL KEEP THESE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET. LITTLE APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED, BUT AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME HUMIDITY
RECOVERY AFTER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY HOWEVER COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON,
BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TOO LOCALIZED (MAINLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE VALLEY) AND TOO BRIEF FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE IN FOR TUESDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS BRINGING MIXING AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH
AFTERNOON READINGS BACK IN THE 70S. TEMPERATURES DON'T REALLY CHANGE
MUCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER OVER THOSE
OF MONDAY. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE THROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS, MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHICH CONTINUES INTO THE
EVENING. A FEW MAY DRIFT OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS, BUT WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THEIR COVERAGE AS THEY PROGRESS
EASTWARD. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NOT
MUCH HELP FROM THE RECENT DRYNESS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RAMPING UP AGAIN AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WHICH DROPS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE DESERT SW BEFORE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OR
CENTRAL ROCKIES SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
IF THE UPPER LOW STALLS ACROSS THE DESERT SW LONG ENOUGH, WE
COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN IN UPSLOPE FLOW FOR SOME
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MEANS
WEAKEN/OPEN THE SYSTEM AS IT CROSS CO/NM OVER THE WEEKEND VS
THEIR DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS. IT'S STILL A LONG WAY OUT AND
THE FORECAST IS PRONE TO CHANGE, BUT IT IS NICE TO SEE AT LEAST
A CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE IN THE EXTENDED. -KT
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2025
GUSTY WINDS ARE GOING TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR ALL OF THE TAF
SITES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FCST PERIOD AT KCOS AND KPUB.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT THE 3 TAF SITES, KCOS,
KPUB AND KALS.
BY TOMORROW MORNING, GUSTY WINDS FROM A WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL
BE LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE KCOS AND KPUB ROUGHLY AROUND SUNSET TOMORROW
EVENING. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR THEREAFTER AT
KCOS AND KPUB.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ221-222-224>231.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...
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