692
FXUS65 KPUB 140527 CCA
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT THIS EVENING TO BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS, THEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
- LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY,
WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
- UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK, WITH
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT STARTS PUSHING OVER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 808 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
QUICK UPDATE TO THE DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE FOR EXPIRATION OF
THE RED FLAG WARNING, AND TO BRING IN LATEST OBS DATA.
RELATIVELY STOUT COLD FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING, PRODUCING E-NE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS MT AND
INTO ND, WHILE AN INITIAL COOL FRONT THIS MORNING WAS PRODUCING
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. HOWEVER,
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTS, AND AREAS WEST, GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS WERE BEING REPORTED. TEMPS AS OF 1 PM HAD RISEN INTO
THE 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 70S TO AROUND 80F
FOR THE PLAINS. MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA TODAY FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WERE MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA.
TONIGHT...THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRES AT 8 PM TONIGHT AND
THAT SEEMS TO BE A GOOD ENDING TIME. HI-RES MODELS POINT TO A MORE
ROBUST, REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE PLAINS BY 6 PM,
RUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ROUGHLY 3-4 HRS. THIS FRONT
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS POURING OVER LA VETA PASS AND INTO THE VALLEY. THIS
WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OFF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WHILE
BRINGING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
EVENING ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WET
MTS AS WELL TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST ACROSS KIOWA COUNTY, A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION UNTIL AROUND 9 PM. OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATION SPOTS THIS EVENING, THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FOR A BIT ONCE THE SUN
SETS AND TEMPS RAPIDLY COOL - THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND UNDER AN INCH. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH THE HIGH VALLEYS,
TELLER COUNTY AND MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY MOST LIKELY DROPPING TO
FREEZING TONIGHT.
MONDAY...LOOK FOR A COOL AND CLOUDY MORNING ACROSS THE REGION, AS
POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW KEEPS COOL AND RELATIVELY MORE
MOIST AIR IN PLACE. MEANWHILE, UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND BRISK WESTERLY FLOW
REDEVELOPS FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND HIGH VALLEYS. THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY IS FORECAST TO BE WARMER TOMORROW THAN ANY SPOT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS, AND SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY. AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY SORT OF
HIGHLIGHT THERE, HOWEVER. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME ISOLATED
PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE WET MTS IN THE MORNING, AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SANGRES THROUGH MIDDAY. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE
PLAINS. MOORE
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY: SOME ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. OVERALL, A RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA, AND GIVEN THIS DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY TUESDAY AND LATE WEDNESDAY. DURING LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, A WEAKENING WAVE WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OVER THE
REGION. DESPITE WEAKENING, THIS WAVE WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN FORCING
AND MOISTURE. WITH THE UPTICK IN FORCING AND MOISTURE, SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
REMAINING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ANY FORCING WILL BE GREATEST.
SHOWERS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SNOW, WITH
SHOWER ELSEWHERE REMAINING ALL RAIN. OTHERWISE, BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT TUESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY AFTER THE WAVE
PASSAGE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL START TO WARM
BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES FOR MID APRIL, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY - SATURDAY: FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND, ACTIVE WEATHER MAKES A MORE PROMINENT RETURN AS A
PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE. TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN US, WITH BOTH FLOW/FORCING AND MOISTURE
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO THIS. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THOUGH WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES STAYING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WHERE FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
ALONG WITH ALL OF THAT, AS FLOW AND WINDS START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
A CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY AND HUMIDITY
VALUES DROP. OTHERWISE, BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THURSDAY TURNING INTO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
TROUGHING STARTS PUSHING OVER THE REGION. LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES,
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN THIS STRETCH OF DAYS, WITH ABOVE
SEASONAL VALUES, AS DOWNSLOPING WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
THEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO COOL BACK DOWN TO AROUND
AND BELOW SEASONAL VALUES AS THE UNSETTLED PATTERN STARTS PUSHING
OVER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
IT IS LIKELY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. WITH THAT SAID,
LOWER CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING AS UPSLOPE DEVELOPS AT
KCOS AND KPUB, AND BKN060 CIGS WERE NOTED AT KCOS AND KPUB.
LOWER CIGS ARE LIKELY AND CAN'T RULE OUT BKN030, ESPECIALLY AT
KCOS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CIGS WILL DISSIPATE AT
KCOS AND KPUB BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
AT KALS, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OVER THE SANGRES TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME GUSTY EASTERLIES PUSHING INTO THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY (AND INTO KALS). THESE EASTERLIES SHOULD LAST FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW BEFORE
WEAKENING AROUND SUNSET.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...HODANISH
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