926
FXUS65 KPUB 141719
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1119 AM MDT MON APR 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS.
- WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE HELPS TO DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.
- INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON APR 14 2025
COOL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH ANY MORNING SHOWERS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS QUICKLY DIMINISHING
THIS MORNING. SURFACE T/TD SPREADS HAVE REMAINED RATHER HIGH
OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS LIMITED SATURATION AND PRECIPITATION SO FAR, AND
HIGH RES MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH THE SHOWER POTENTIAL
THIS MORNING. UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION WILL STAND THE
BEST SHOT OF SOME LIGHT MORNING SPRINKLES/FLURRIES BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION WITH SPOTTY TRACE TO 0.01
LIQUID EQUIVALENTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, IT WILL REMAIN DRY FOR OUR WESTERN AREAS,
WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND FEELING LITTLE/NO
EFFECT FROM THE COLD FRONT BANKED UP ALONG THE EAST SIDE. THERE
COULD BE SOME SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY TODAY, BUT WITH WINDS
DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE NUDGES INTO
WESTERN CO, DON'T THINK THE DURATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR LONG
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. GREATEST AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY (SOUTH
OF KALS). OTHERWISE, WE COULD SEE SOME CUMULUS BUILD UPS ALONG
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY
AND THE MOISTURE LAYER HIGH BASED AND SHALLOW, SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THESE VERY ISOLATED OCCURRENCES.
OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT AS CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
SURFACE DEW POINTS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS
THE PLAINS, AND A MIX OF 20S TO LOWER 30S AND EVEN SOME HIGH TEENS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS LATE AS THE NEXT DAMPENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT MON APR 14 2025
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL DATA IS IN AGREEMENT OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SAID DISTURBANCE TO
HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
WITH A FEW SHOWERS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DESI
DATA DOES SUPPORT A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ACROSS THE REGION,
THOUGH SOUNDING DATA INDICATES A SLOW INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH INVERTED V PROFILES SUPPORTING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND MAINLY VIRGA AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE ALOFT TO SUPPORT TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY,
WITH MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, SAVE FOR 60S
ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO STAY MILD, WITH MAINLY
40S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IN THE 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODEL DATA INDICATES AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES. WHILE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS, INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND EMBEDDED DRY
AIR TO BRING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION, MAINLY ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY, AND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES RESPOND IN KIND, WITH HIGHS ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS IN 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND IN THE 40S
TO 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
IN THE OFFING FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE
OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION
AND STRENGTH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SYSTEM, ENSEMBLE MEAN DATA
FROM THE EPS, GEFS AND GEPS INDICATE A SPLITTING SYSTEM LEADING TO
A WEAK TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS THE MAIN NORTHERN PIECE
OF THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER, AND THE SECONDARY
SOUTHERN PIECE OF THE SYSTEM DIGS AN UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO BEFORE LIFTING OUT ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FOR AREAS AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
BACK TO AT AND EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. LATEST NBM DATA SUPPORTS THIS PATTERN FAIRLY
WELL, THOUGH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR WHERE THIS POTENTIAL
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DOES EVENTUALLY DEVELOP AND MOVE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT MON APR 14 2025
KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS POSSIBLE.
KCOS...CIGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AND WILL BECOME VFR THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWERED CIGS TONIGHT, NEAR 5 KFT.
KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO
BRING CIGS NEAR 7 KFT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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