031
FXUS65 KPUB 142324
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
524 PM MDT MON APR 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE AND RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
- INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING INCREASED FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
- A NEW SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON APR 14 2025
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS FILLED IN ACROSS COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
ARE COOLER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS, AND MID 60S ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. SPOTTY, CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO PRESENT ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY VALUES, AND WINDS GUSTING NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH.
LIGHT WINDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S. A FEW AREAS NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER MAY FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S, AND THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM. THE UPPER WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, SPREADING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. A COUPLE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY
MORNING ACROSS THE SAN JUAN RANGE.
TUESDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE THE UPPER RIDGE EAST INTO
KANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES SO, FLOW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WAVE WILL SPREAD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE 10 KFT. SNOW AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 3 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON AREAS PEAKS. IN ADDITION TO
THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL, WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. CAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME IF IT
MAKES IT INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
WARM UP FOR TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE REGION. MOZLEY
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON APR 14 2025
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DIG DOWN OVER THE WEST COAST, A BROAD TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THAT
REGION. OVER OUR AREA, FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE US
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS, LEADING TO NOTICEABLY DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES, LATEST NBM SPREADS SHOW
PARTS OF THE PLAINS CREEPING INTO THE MID-80S BOTH WEDS AND THURS,
WHILE THE REST OF THE VALLEYS AND SOME ELEVATED AREAS REMAIN IN THE
60S-70S. ENSEMBLE SPREADS AS WELL AS DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BOTH
RESEMBLE THIS SOLUTION, THOUGH A DECENT PORTION OF THE DATA HINTS AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR THINGS TO GET EVEN WARMER. THIS WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON ANY CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.
MEANWHILE, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE,
LEADING TO DRY DOWNSLOPING OFF OF THE TERRAIN AS WELL AS INCREASING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY, MOST OF OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND PARTS OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR, PARTICULARLY OUR SOUTHERN GAP FLOW AREAS FROM HUERFANO
COUNTY DOWN TOWARDS THE RATON MESA. WITH RH DIPPING DOWN CLOSE TO 10
PERCENT, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE
AREAS FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY, THE FLOW INCREASES OVER THE ENTIRE REGION, MEANING
THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP TO BE MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD AND CONSISTENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY, AND OVER MOST IF
NOT ALL OF OUR CWA.
CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS AS FOLLOWS:
- WEDNESDAY, SAN LUIS VALLEY, SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR: POSSIBLE (40-
60%)
- WEDNESDAY, OTHER AREAS IN SE COLORADO: UNLIKELY (20-40%)
- THURSDAY, ALL OF SE COLORADO: LIKELY TO VERY LIKELY (60-90%)
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES, BUT AS OF
TODAY, MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR
BOTH DAYS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND INTENSIFICATION, SO PLEASE AVOID
ANY ACTIONS THAT COULD SPARK A FIRE.
THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARDS...
THE NEXT SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL START LATE THURSDAY
AND LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS
THIS MORNING HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A MESSY SPLIT IN THE JETS
ALOFT, WITH ONE LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING FURTHER SOUTH WHILE A SECOND,
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL US.
THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY THIS WEEKEND.
AS THE LOW MOVES AND THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS, A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA SOMETIME AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT. TIMING
WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS, BUT CURRENT CONSENSUS
IS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS SOMETIME VERY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS FRONT ARRIVES, IT WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANGES
TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. FIRST, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY, CLOSER TO OR EVEN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS SHOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY IN THE 50S-60S OVER
MOST OF THE AREA, A SOLID 15-20 DEGREE DROP FROM THURSDAY. CURRENT
NBM CONSENSUS IS RIDING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE DATA, PERHAPS EVEN
A TAD WARMER, THOUGH SOME DATA SHOWS HIGHS AS COOL AS THE LOW-50S.
THIS WILL BE DETERMINED BY A FEW CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN FACTORS, SUCH
AS THE STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, AS WELL AS
CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL GO FROM A GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION, BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE KICKS IN ON
FRIDAY AND INCREASES CLOUD COVER OVER THE PLAINS. FINALLY, THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WHILE THE EASTERN PLAINS RECEIVE MOSTLY RAIN, THOUGH A FEW HIGHER
SPOTS OVER AND NEAR THE PALMER COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS WELL
RIGHT AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH IN THE MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST AND WANE AS THE LOW PUSHES PAST,
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE MOSTLY
DISSIPATING BY THE END OF THE DAY. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DISAGREE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INCOMING SYSTEM. CURRENT
CONSENSUS IS FOR A DAY OR TWO OF DRIER, WARMER CONDITIONS AROUND THE
START OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT MON APR 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3
TAF SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...HODANISH
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