200
FXUS65 KPUB 151720
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1120 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE.
- HIGH FIRE DANGER RETURNS MID-WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
- A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND, BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN AND SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES MODEST
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO
INDICATING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADARS
INDICATING INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF EARLY THIS
MORNING.
FOR TODAY...LATEST MODEL DATA REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SAID WEAK
DISTURBANCE FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SAID DISTURBANCE
TO HELP DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
WITH A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE BEING PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION.
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. SOUNDING DATA INDICATES AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH INVERTED V PROFILES SUPPORTING GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND MAINLY VIRGA AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MODEST DCAPE BEING IN
PLACE. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE ALOFT TO SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT
AND ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS,
WITH MAINLY 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, SAVE FOR 60S ACROSS
THE HIGH VALLEYS. WITH THAT SAID, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS.
INTO TONIGHT...MODEST WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING BEHIND THE PASSING
WAVE. WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE, WITH MAINLY 40S
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND IN THE 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
MODELS BRING BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MID-WEEK, WHICH WILL LEAD TO STRONG SOUTHWEST OVER
OUR AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY..
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR TO AROUND 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, FREMONT COUNTY, AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. THESE AREAS ARE UNDER A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY. OVERNIGHT MOISTURE RECOVERIES WILL ALSO BE
VERY POOR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WHICH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY..
VERY HIGH END FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST FIRE
ZONES, WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY, AND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THOUGH HIGHLIGHTS HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED
YET, CONFIDENCE OF ISSUANCE IS AROUND 80-90% FOR ALL PLAINS AND
VALLEY ZONES WITH CRITICAL FUELS, AND 60 TO 70% CHANCE FOR HIGH
ELEVATION ZONES. ANY NEW FIRE STARTS COULD TURN INTO A DANGEROUS
SITUATION VERY QUICKLY ON THURSDAY. PLEASE AVOID AND ANY ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD START A WILDFIRE ON THURSDAY!! BLOWING DUST COULD ALSO
LEAD TO DEGRADED VISIBILITIES ON AREA ROADWAYS ON THURSDAY FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY, THE I-25 CORRIDOR, AND ACROSS OUR PLAINS. PLEASE
USE CAUTION IF YOU MUST DRIVE IN DUSTY CONDITIONS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS..
FRIDAY ONWARDS..
A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND LOOKS TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO RESOLVE SOME SORT OF MERGER BETWEEN TWO
TROUGHS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WE LOOK TO SEE A SHARP DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY, ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL AREAS. PRECIP CHANCES LINGER WELL INTO
SATURDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS SUGGESTS ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR FRIDAY TOP OUT MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL (WHICH WILL PROBABLY FEEL QUITE CHILLY AFTER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS WE'VE HAD!) MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S ON FRIDAY, WITH 40S AND LOW 50S ON SATURDAY! WE BEGIN TO WARM
BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION PUSHING EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN'T
SHOW MUCH CONSENSUS, BUT IT DOES SEEM MOST LIKELY THAT WE'LL SEE A
COUPLE DAYS OF DRY WEATHER TO START OUT NEXT WEEK, BEFORE OUR NEXT
POTENTIAL SYSTEM MIGHT COME THROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AT
THE TERMINAL WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS IS LOW.
KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH
TERMINALS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINALS, ALONG
WITH BRIEFLY REDUCED VIS AND CIGS. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ222-224-228>230.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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