094
FXUS65 KPUB 152029
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
229 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, NORTHEAST TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- HIGH FIRE DANGER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND
LOW HUMIDITY.
- HIGH FIRE DANGER AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY, LASTING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A NEW SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TOP OF RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. THIS HAS SPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS EVEN
BEEN A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES NORTH OF WOLF CREEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE MILD ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE PLAINS IN THE 60S AND 70S, AND
60S ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BREEZY, MAINLY
SOUTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, AND INTO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN RISKS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 45 MPH GIVEN THE DRY LOW
LEVELS. HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PEAKS ABOVE 11 KFT. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS UPPER WAVE, CLEARING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID TO
LATE EVENING, WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE, FLOW WILL TRANSITION WESTERLY AND INCREASE
THROUGH MORNING. ELEVATED WINDS WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THE MILD SIDE WITH 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND 30S OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY...WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH
FIRE DANGER FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, EAST INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. THOSE
WITH OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD POSTPONE THEM UNTIL ANOTHER
DAY. GIVEN THE ENHANCED MIXING, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM NICELY,
WITH MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND 60S FOR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY. WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AGAIN, ANY SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST PEAKS AND NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. MOZLEY
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
THURSDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST ON
THURSDAY, PLACING INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER OUR
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WARM AND DRY DOWNSLOPING WINDS, COUPLED
WITH DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS AND RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WILL
PRESENT US WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
[HIGHLIGHTS]
THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS HAS BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT IN THE
MODEL DATA, THOUGH THERE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
UPPER BOUNDS OF GUSTS WE CAN EXPECT DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT
CONSENSUS SHOWS CONSISTENT SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, 25-30
KNOTS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, AND A GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH
HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HOWEVER, THESE STRONGER GUSTS APPEAR TO BE SHORT-
LIVED, WITH ONLY ABOUT HALF OF NBM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EXCEEDING THE 50
KNOT THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
INCONSISTENCY IN THE SPEED AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE INCOMING
SYNOPTIC WAVE, SO HAVE HELD OFF AN ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS UNTIL A
BETTER CONSENSUS IS REACHED, AND MORE DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.
FINALLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM ACROSS OUR AREA,
WITH LOW-MID 80S OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND 60S-70S OVER THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND HIGHER-ELEVATED PORTIONS OF I-25.
THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARDS...
AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, BUT A FEW
CONSISTENCIES SHINE THROUGH. A SOMEWHAT MESSY SPLIT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH ONE
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER, WHILE A CLOSED
LOW DIVES SOUTH AND MOVES INTO OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING A RAPID
DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS OUR CWA. THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THIS INCOMING LOW ARE
STILL BEING DETERMINED AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT A FEW THINGS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.
FIRST, LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER OUR MOUNTAINS.
ACCUMULATION TOTALS WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED CLOSER TO DATE, BUT
GENERALLY THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS,
WET MOUNTAINS, AND THE RAMPARTS, INCLUDING PIKES PEAK. THIS WILL BE
DUE TO PERSISTENT, BREEZY NORTHEAST UPSLOPING BEHIND THE PASSING
FRONT, COUPLED WITH AN INFLUX OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE FROM THE PASSING
WAVE. FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS, RAIN WILL FALL INITIALLY, SPREADING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE FRONT. AS TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY COOL IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING, A
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE PALMER AND SOME MOUNTAIN-
ADJACENT AREAS, THOUGH AT THIS TIME ONLY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. PRECIP WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY RISING BACK ABOVE 6000
FEET OVER THE PLAINS. FOR OUR NON-MOUNTAIN AREAS, SPECIFICALLY THE I-
25 CORRIDOR, LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED, WITH PARTS
OF THE PALMER DIVIDE SEEING SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, BUT NOTHING
WARRANTING WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY, PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR SECOND CONSISTENT POINT WILL BE TEMPERATURES. WHILE MODEL
SPREADS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY-SATURDAY ARE STILL RATHER LARGE, IN GENERAL
WE CAN EXPECT A COOLDOWN OF AT LEAST 15-20 DEGREES BETWEEN HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY VS FRIDAY. THESE COOLER CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODELS, PARTICULARLY WITH THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
PUSHES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS, FOR EXAMPLE, IS SHOWING A
FAST-MOVING CLOSED LOW EJECTING EAST AND NORTH FROM THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER INTO KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY, WHILE CANADIAN SENDS THE LOW INTO
THE OK PANHANDLE. THE EC IS SHOWING MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE, WITH A
MESSY TROUGH MOVING INTO NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS COULD MEAN NOTABLE CHANGES TO OUR
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS, WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE
LARGE SPREAD AMONGST THE DATA. CURRENT GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A
DRY AND WARM TREND TO SET BACK IN RIGHT AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM, BUT THE TIMING FOR BOTH THE END OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM AND ONSET OF THE SECOND STILL NEEDS TO BE RESOLVED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AT EACH TERMINAL, WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, LOW CIGS AND VIS
POSSIBLE AS THEY PASS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THESE OCCURRING AT THE
TERMINALS IS LOW. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL THREE
TERMINALS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. KALS MAY SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
30 KTS AND AREAS OF BLDU WHICH COULD LOWER VIS. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ222-
224-228>230.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ221-222-224-226>231-234>236.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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