807
FXUS65 KPUB 161616
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1016 AM MDT WED APR 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR, AND FREMONT COUNTY TODAY,
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TOMORROW.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
- MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR FRIDAY, WHICH CONTINUES
INTO EASTER WEEKEND.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL POTENTIAL OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MDT WED APR 16 2025
EMBEDDED ENERGY IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH-RES CAM GUIDANCE IS GENERATING
WEAK INSTABILITY OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPDATED TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN RISK FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING. MOZLEY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT WED APR 16 2025
CURRENTLY..
SATELLITE IMAGERY IMAGERY REVEALS BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPING TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, WHILE COLORADO SITS AT THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE
UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PUSH IN FROM OUR SOUTHWEST, WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CURRENTLY THOUGH, TEMPERATURES REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS, WITH MOST LOCATIONS STILL IN THE 40S AND 50S THIS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS HAVE MANAGED TO REMAIN MAINLY WESTERLY, AND
ARE EVEN STILL A BIT BREEZY AT THE COLORADO SPRINGS AIRPORT, WHERE
25 MPH GUSTS ARE BEING REPORTED AS OF 1 AM. THESE GUSTS ARE
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES OF NEARLY 60 DEGREES. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS
AND DRYING CONDITIONS ARE LEADING TO POOR OVERNIGHT MOISTURE
RECOVERIES IN MANY AREAS THOUGH. THE COLORADO SPRINGS AIRPORT IS
ALSO STILL AT 25% RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND FORT CARSON IS ONLY AT 20%
AS OF 1 AM.
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TODAY AS THE TROUGH OUT WEST CONTINUES TO
TRY TO PUSH EAST AND DEEPEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME SPARSE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY, MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH CHANCES FOR ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE WILL BE
LITTLE TO NONE. MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL COME IN THE FORMS OF
HIGH FIRE DANGER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (95% CHANCE) FOR ALL AREAS BELOW 10,000 FEET,
AND AREAS THAT HAVE THE HIGH CHANCES OF SEEING BOTH GUSTY WINDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS COINCIDING WILL BE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN
I-25 CORRIDOR, AND FREMONT COUNTY. THESE AREAS ARE UNDER A RED FLAG
WARNING FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM TODAY. PLEASE AVOID ACTIVITIES THAT
COULD START A FIRE IN THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY!! DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
LIKELY (80% CHANCE) TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE PLAINS, UPPER 70S FOR EL PASO COUNTY, THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY, THE MIDDLE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY, AND THE RATON, AND 60S FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE AROUND 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ON TOP OF CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WINDS, A SECOND NIGHT OF POOR OVERNIGHT MOISTURE RECOVERIES
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT, WITH MANY AREAS ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE
20% RANGE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
WIDESPREAD AND VERY HIGH END FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 358 AM MDT WED APR 16 2025
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SPRING STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY,
WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS A STRONG JET
CORE TRANSLATES ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS PROGGED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY,
WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 60 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIXING DOWN
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. WITH THAT SAID, WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. WE ALSO ADDED FIRE WEATHER ZONE 225 TO THE RED FLAG WARNING
ON THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL
NEED FOR HIGH WIND WARNINGS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
TIER CLOSEST TO THE TRANSLATING JET CORE. THE MAIN MID LEVEL FRONT
STAYS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY, TO
THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, SAVE FOR 30S AND 40S AT
THE PEAKS. THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND CONTDVD
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION OVERNIGHT, AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
SOME HIGHER RES MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE PIKES PEAK
REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS TO THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...STILL A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE ON HOW THIS STORM
SYSTEM EVOLVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES, WITH THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
TRAILING ENERGY NEEDING TO BE RESOLVED IN ORDER TO DETERMINE THE
STRENGTH OF UPSLOPE AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE LATEST GFS HAS MORE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, WHILE THE CANADIAN HAS
A CLOSED UPPER LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO, WITH
THE ECMWF IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS. ALL MODELS DO INDICATE ENOUGH
COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM TO SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN 4000
AND 5000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, WITH NBM SUPPORTING
SNOW FALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO, ALONG WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR, WITH AN 1 OR 2 POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT
ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND MAINLY
30S AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL
LEVELS IN THE 30S AND 40S ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S AND 30S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN, DEPENDING ON
HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES, COULD SEE PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR EASTER SUNDAY, THOUGH MAINLY IN THE
40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE PASSING WEEKEND SYSTEM
LEADS TO TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MDT WED APR 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 17Z, WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25KT AT KCOS AND KPUB, AND GUSTS TO 35KT AT KALS. REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLDU WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KALS ON THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED OFF
AND ON THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222-224-
228>230.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ221-
222-224>231-234>236.
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...EHR
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