481
FXUS65 KPUB 170223
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
823 PM MDT WED APR 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY DUE TO VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
AND VERY STRONG WINDS.
- IMPACTFUL WINTRY SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN, WITH A
WARMUP EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 803 PM MDT WED APR 16 2025
UPDATED FORECASTS TO LET RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS EVENING
EXPIRE. REGARDING THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THU, HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW AREAS OF 50-55 KT GUSTS OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY (ALAMOSA TO BLANCA) AND FROM LA VETA PASS DOWNSTREAM
TO WALSENBURG. WHILE SITUATION IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL (HRRR TENDS
TO OVERFORECAST WINDS BY A FEW KTS), BEGINNING TO LEAN TOWARD AN
UPGRADE TO A WARNING, AS A GOOD DEAL OF 18Z STATISTICAL MODEL DATA
POINTS TOWARD WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL LOOK AT SOME 00Z DATA
BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL DECISION, BUT WILL PLAN ON MAKING THE
UPGRADE CALL BEFORE 10 PM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED APR 16 2025
CURRENTLY...WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW RADAR ECHOES ARE
SHOWING UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AND WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE
PALMER DIVIDE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING AND OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
HAVE BEEN PICKING UP ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND INTO THE PLAINS,
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 30 MPH. HOWEVER, HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL, AND ARE HOVERING AROUND 20 PERCENT. AS AN UPPER JET
MOVES OVERHEAD, ENHANCED MIXING SHOULD HELP HUMIDITY VALUES DRY OUT.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM, WITH 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE REGION.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT, AND THE EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET, WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WHERE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR.
ACROSS THE PLAINS, A SURFACE LOW WILL IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR
LAMAR, WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR COLORADO SPRINGS,
TO ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
40S NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, WESTERLY FLOW
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM, MAINLY IN THE 50S. AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 WILL WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE, WITH DRY AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY RECOVERIES POOR OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY...EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED! THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY JET
ACROSS COLORADO. AS IT DOES SO, WINDS WILL MIX DOWN EARLY IN THE
DAY, WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS GUSTING NEAR 50 MPH. ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR. THESE AREAS COULD SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH BEGINNING
MID MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG
WINDS COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE VALLEY AND
PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, VERY DRY AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION.
THOSE WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD POSTPONE THEM UNTIL
ANOTHER DAY. THE BLOWING DUST WILL REDUCED VISIBILITIES, AND STRONG
CROSS WINDS ON NORTH-SOUTH HIGHWAYS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE
REGION. MOZLEY
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED APR 16 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH OUR REGION
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, GIVING US A SHORT PERIOD OF
COOL AND ACTIVE WEATHER. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING ON TO
INCONSISTENCIES, SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW.
INITIALLY, A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE IN FROM THE NORTH, MOVING ACROSS
THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS OVER
THE PLAINS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY ONCE THE FRONT IS THROUGH, WHICH
WILL HELP INITIATE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE MOUNTAINS/PLAINS
INTERFACE BY LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE REMAIN INCONSISTENT WITH THE SPEED AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM OVERALL, WHICH COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON
HOW MUCH RAIN/SNOW WE RECEIVE ACROSS OUR DIFFERENT AREAS. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION A FEW HOURS,
SPREADING OVER THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PARTS OF THE
PALMER DIVIDE OVERNIGHT, WHILE ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING, POSSIBLY CLOSER TO MIDDAY, TO
SHOW OVER THE REST OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN BULK OF THE QPF IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE STARTING LATE FRIDAY
MORNING, LASTING INTO SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING OVER
THE REGION, ADVECTING MOISTURE AND GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE, PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ENHANCED SNOW FORMATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESOLVING MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE LOW. THIS APPEARS TO STILL
BE A SPLIT, MESSY SYSTEM, WITH SOME ENERGY PUSHING NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY WHILE A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS IS, HOWEVER, WHERE THE CONSISTENCY DECREASES. THE GFS AND EC
HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT, WITH A MORE OPEN WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS OUR CWA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WRAPPING UP A BIT SUNDAY
MORNING. THE CANADIAN, MEANWHILE, SENDS A STRONG CLOSED LOW 6-12
HOURS LATER, AND DOWN ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS SUCH, THERE'S
STILL PLENTY OF DETAIL TO RESOLVE, AS A STRONGER, MORE SOUTH-
TRENDING LOW COULD BRING MORE COLD AIR AN SNOW TO THE AREA, WHILE
THE PASSING WAVES MAY LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME AREAS.
CURRENT SNOW TOTALS ARE HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS COULD BE SEEING 8 TO 12 INCHES, ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF
TELLER AND FREMONT COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN SAN JUANS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RECEIVE OVER
A FOOT OF ACCUMULATION BY SUNDAY. THOUGH SNOW TOTALS WILL CERTAINLY
CHANGE AS THE MODELS CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION, AMOUNTS ARE HIGH ENOUGH
AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO POST WINTER STORM WATCHES IN THOSE
AREAS, EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
SNOW WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE RATE OF WHICH
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHICH PATH THE SYSTEM ENDS UP TAKING, ENDING
FASTER ON THE PLAINS AND LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS PEAKS THE
LONGEST.
LOOKING AT THE EASTERN PLAINS SPECIFICALLY, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
PARAMOUNT TO DETERMINING PRECIP MODE, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY EVENING, SNOW LEVELS
WILL QUICKLY DROP JUST ABOVE 5000 FEET, LOWERING A BIT FURTHER ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S-50S, ASIDE
FROM COLDER TEMPS OVER THE PALMER CLOSER TO FREEZING. SOME AREAS
ALONG I-25 MAY SEE A RAIN-SNOW MIX, PARTICULARLY DURING THE COLDER
HOURS OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD LEAD TO
SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS AND TRAVEL IMPACTS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE OVER THE PALMER. A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAD AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY LATE FRIDAY MORNING, SO WHILE THIS CHANCE IS RATHER LOW
(<15%) IT IS AN IMPACTFUL ENOUGH POSSIBILITY TO MENTION. OTHERWISE,
WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FURTHER SOUTH, AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
PUEBLO COUNTY AND THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR SHOULD BE SEEING MOSTLY
RAIN, IF NOT ALL RAIN.
CURRENT SNOW TOTALS FOR THE PALMER RANGE 4-6 INCHES AS OF NOW, BUT
THIS AREA IS THE MOST PRONE TO CHANGE WITH THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF
THE LOW. AREAS CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SIMILAR TOTALS,
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF UPSLOPING, BUT THE
GRADIENT COULD TIGHTEN AND KEEP HIGHER TOTALS MORE CONSTRAINED TO
THE SLOPES THEMSELVES. MEANWHILE, THE REST OF I-25 AND AREAS JUST
EAST OF IT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO GET UP TO AN INCH OR TWO, ALONG WITH
MOST OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
AGAIN, LATEST GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN
MODELS, WHICH COULD HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON THE AMOUNT OF SNOW WE
RECEIVE. EVEN MODELS THAT ARE CONSISTENT WITH ONE ANOTHER HAVE
CHANGED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WORTH OF RUNS, SO THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY PRESENT WITH THIS DYNAMIC BUT IMPACTFUL SYSTEM.
FINALLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FURTHER SATURDAY BENEATH THE
MAIN ENERGY OF THE PASSING SYSTEM, LARGELY 30S-40S ACROSS THE CWA.
THINGS WARM UP SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY, INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY 60S,
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW DEPARTS AND WHAT KIND OF CLOUD
COVER STICKS AROUND.
MONDAY ONWARDS...
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW SETS IN AROUND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS
WILL START TO DRY OUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO OR JUST ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER SOME
OF THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED APR 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS
(KALS, KCOS, KPUB). AN ISOLATE SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT KCOS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE. STRONG
WINDS WILL IMPACT ALL THREE TERMINALS ON THURSDAY, FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS AT KALS WILL APPROACH 40 TO 50 KTS,
AND 40 KTS AT KCOS AND KPUB. AREAS OF BLDU COULD REDUCED VIS TO
UNDER 6 SM. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-060-061-064-066-068.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ221-
222-224>231-234>236.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ070-071-087-088.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ072>076-079>082.
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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