640
FXUS65 KPUB 171723 RRB
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 AM MDT THU APR 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, DAMAGING WINDS, AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLOWING DUST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
- A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT
- MUCH COLDER WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT THU APR 17 2025
CURRENTLY..
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION, AS BROAD TOUGHING APPROACHES FROM OUR WEST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE PLAINS, WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES ARE UNSEASONABLY WARM, AND ARE STILL IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS AS OF 2 AM. DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING
STEADILY, WITH ALAMOSA ALREADY DOWN TO AROUND 20F. MOISTURE
RECOVERIES ARE NOT AS TERRIBLE AS EXPECTED, BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MOUNTAIN ADJACENT AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE IN THE 30% TO
40% RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
TODAY..
AS THE APPROACHING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE OUT WEST, WE ARE
LEFT TO DEAL WITH VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
JET SUPPORT AS IT APPROACHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL
MEAN DAMAGING WINDS, EXTREME FIRE DANGER, SNOW CHANCES FOR PORTIONS
OF THE HIGH COUNTRY, AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT ON THE PLAINS
LATER TONIGHT..
SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP IN EARNEST THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.
THESE TWO AREAS ARE WHERE WE WILL SEE BOTH THE EARLIEST ONSET OF
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS, AND THE STRONGEST MAGNITUDES OF WINDS AS
WELL. FOR THIS REASON, HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY, HUERFANO, AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES FROM 10
AM THROUGH 5 PM. IN THE WARNED AREAS, EXPECT GUSTS TO 60 MPH, ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES. TRAVEL
MAY ALSO BE DANGEROUS TO IMPOSSIBLE ON ROADWAYS IN THESE AREAS,
ESPECIALLY FOR LIGHT AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ELSEWHERE ON OUR
PLAINS, WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACROSS ALL LOWER
ELEVATIONS, BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY (60% CHANCE), WHICH
COULD LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
WITH HIGH WINDS THIS TIME OF YEAR, EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS ALSO
EXPECTED (90% CHANCE) FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, FREMONT
COUNTY, AND ALL OUR PLAINS THAT HAVE BEEN DEEMED CRITICAL FOR FUELS
BY OUR FUELS PARTNERS. TO BE CLEAR, THE ONLY PLAINS ZONES THAT HAVE
BEEN LEFT OUT OF TODAY'S RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXCLUDED FOR
NON-CRITICAL FUELS. ALL PLAINS AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE STRONG
WINDS AND EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. PLEASE AVOID ALL
ACTIVITIES THAT COULD SPARK A FIRE TODAY, NO MATTER YOUR LOCATION!
ANY NEW START COULD QUICKLY TURN INTO A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION ON
A DAY LIKE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN, WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ON THE PLAINS, BUT THAT
ALL CHANGES SOON.. LIGHT SNOW BEGINS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING INTO THE PIKES PEAK REGION LATER ON THIS
EVENING...
TONIGHT..
MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR PLAINS SOMETIME LATE THIS
EVENING OR BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AT THE LATEST. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
BEGINNING OF A BIG PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL USHER IN A FEW DAYS OF
MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE, AND SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. FOR
TONIGHT THOUGH, EXPECT AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WITH SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN BEHIND
IT. SHOWERS LOOK TO START AS SNOW OVER TELLER COUNTY, AND RAIN FOR
MOST OF EL PASO, THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE
COULD START RIGHT INTO SNOW AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE'LL
SEE A FEW HOURS OF TRANSITIONAL RAIN TO SNOW TYPE PRECIPITATION,
BEFORE A FULL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION. THAT SAID, OVERNIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT, WITH JUST A 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE SAN JUANS, GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF
INCH OVER TELLER COUNTY, AND TRACE AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT THU APR 17 2025
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WHILE DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON THE STRENGTH OF
TRAILING ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A SPRING STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES, THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN DATA
TO SUPPORT A STRONGER CLOSED LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TO BRING ENHANCED UVV AND UPSLOPE FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.
WITH THAT SAID, WILL CONTINUE TO PRECIPITATION INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE FOCUS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AS THE SECONDARY ENERGY
MOVES EAST. PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
SECONDARY ENERGY CONTINUES INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ALL MODELS DO INDICATE ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM TO SUPPORT
SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING, AND WITH THAT SAID, WE HAVE UPGRADED THE EASTERN
SAN JUANS, THE SANGRES AND THE WET MTNS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
WITH 8 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. FURTHER NORTH, ALONG THE
CONTDVD INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND TELLER COUNTY, WENT WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH 4 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW. WILL LIKELY NEED
TO ADD MORE ADVISORIES FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, INTO
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. ALSO, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS, ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S TO 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND MAINLY 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE 30S AND 40S ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S
AND 30S, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY..WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE PASSING SYSTEM
LEADS TO TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT THU APR 17 2025
KALS...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH
EARLY EVENING, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 50 KTS. AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST COULD REDUCE VIS AT TIMES GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. WINDS
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY. A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
KCOS...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AROUND 3-4Z
THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS SWITCHING NORTHERLY. CIGS WILL LOWER
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT TO NEAR 1.5 KFT, AND SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 25 TO 30 KTS THROUGH MORNING.
KPUB...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE BY 06Z WITH WIND SWITCHING
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER BEHIND THE
FRONT TO NEAR 1.5-2 KFT. SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-063-064-066.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR COZ068.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ221-222-
224>231-234>236.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ070-071-
087-088.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
COZ072>075-079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM MDT SATURDAY
FOR COZ076-081-082.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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