720
FXUS65 KPUB 172037
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
237 PM MDT THU APR 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, DAMAGING WINDS, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- A POTENT COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT, WITH SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE ON
FRIDAY, AND RAIN FOR THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
- IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A BRIEF WARMING AND DRYING PERIOD WILL OCCUR AROUND THE START
OF NEXT WEEK, BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU APR 17 2025
CURRENTLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET HAS SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MIXING DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE OCCURRING,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE ALSO SEEN, REDUCING
VISIBILITIES ON AREA HIGHWAYS. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH
TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED NICELY, WITH 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE IN THE 5 PERCENT RANGE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE PRESENT. DO NOT BURN THROUGH THIS EVENING!
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. GUSTS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN INTO THE
35 TO 45 MPH RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BEING WORKING SOUTH OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING, AND QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS, REACHING HIGHWAY 50 BY MIDNIGHT, AND CLEARING THE PLAINS BY
DAYBREAK. LOW STRATUS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MORNING.
EXPECT SNOW TO FILL IN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVERNIGHT, WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, THEN SPREADING
SOUTH INTO THE SAN JUANS BY MORNING. ACROSS THE PLAINS, COLD AIR
WILL SPREAD SOUTH ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO FILL IN LATE TONIGHT, WITH SNOW LEVELS
FALLING TO NEAR 5500 FEET. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON
GRASSY SURFACES BY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S ACROSS NORTH EL PASO COUNTY, AND LOWER 40S BY THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER.
FRIDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
UTAH AND ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO. LOW LEVEL
SURFACE FLOW IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION SOUTH OFF THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND FILL IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE UPSLOPE WILL FAVOR
AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN PRETTY STEADY, WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50S, AND WARM INTO THE 50S NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY RISE TO ABOVE 6 KFT ACROSS
EL PASO COUNTY, AND HIGHER TO THE SOUTH. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES, AND SLUSH ON
ROADWAYS. OVERALL, EXPECT A COOL, CLOUDY AND RAW DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO. MOZLEY
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU APR 17 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
BEHAVIOR OF THE PASSING STORM SYSTEM LASTING THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEKEND. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WHEN THE POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE GIVES US
OUR HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS, AND WHEN PRECIP
WILL SPREAD OVER AREAS ADJACENT TO THE TERRAIN, INCLUDING THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE,
LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SATURDAY, THE SECONDARY CLOSED LOW IN
THIS SPLIT SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL FOCUS THE MAJORITY OF SNOWFALL BACK OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING WANE AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOKING AT LATEST SNOW TOTALS FOR THIS SYSTEM, NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE
FROM YESTERDAY. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 4-5 THOUSAND FEET,
BOTTOMING OUT EARLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY RISING AGAIN. COUPLED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S, SNOW WILL QUICKLY
ACCUMULATE ACROSS AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL HIGHEST ACROSS THE PEAKS OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH ALL OF OUR
VARIOUS PEAKS ABOVE 10KFT SEEING OVER A FOOT BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
PEAKS OF OUR SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SAN JUANS,
MAY VERY WELL SEE 15-20 INCHES IN TOTAL IN SOME PLACES. THE PALMER
DIVIDE IS LOOKING MORE CONSISTENT IN THE DATA, WITH 3-7 INCHES
EXPECTED, HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE TERRAIN.
HEADING WEST TOWARDS TELLER COUNTY, AMOUNTS MAY INCREASE
TOWARDS THE 7-10 RANGE THE CLOSER TO THE SLOPES YOU GET.
CONSIDERING THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TOTALS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN EL
PASO COUNTY, LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
THOUGH SOME OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MELT, IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS
AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS SYSTEM REMAIN COOL AMONGST THE GUIDANCE, WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 40S OVER MOST LOW
AREAS, REMAINING IN THE 30S OVER THE PALMER AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN-
ADJACENT AREAS.
SUNDAY...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
SECONDARY LOW'S DEPARTURE, MOVING THINGS OUT OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT, WITH
50S-60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL START LIGHTENING ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL.
MONDAY ONWARDS...
AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS SHOWN SWINGING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER, TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON OUR
AREA. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET IN OVER THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. WE WILL WARM UP AND DRY OUT, WITH TEMPS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY RISING BACK INTO THE 60S-70S, WARMEST OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT THU APR 17 2025
KALS...VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 KTS AND AREAS OF BLDU. BLDU WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE REDUCED VIS. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT, BUT REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
KCOS...GUSTY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GUSTS
NEAR 40 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE 03-04Z AND SWITCH FLOW
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY. LOW STRATUS
WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW CIGS NEAR 1.5 KFT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINAL BY FRIDAY MID
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KPUB...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BLDU
REDUCING VIS. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE 06-07Z AND SWITCH WINDS
NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY BY MORNING. LOW STRATUS WILL FILL
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH CIGS NEAR 1.5-2KFT. PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH MIDDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-061-063-064-066.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR COZ068.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ221-222-
224>231-234>236.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ070-071-
087-088.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR
COZ072>075-079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM MDT SATURDAY
FOR COZ076-081-082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO NOON MDT SATURDAY
FOR COZ084.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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