097
FXUS65 KPUB 181117
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
517 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG SPRING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION,
BRINGING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WINDING
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT.
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
CURRENTLY..
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS
WAY THROUGH ALL OF OUR PLAINS, WITH STOUT NORTHERLY WINDS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY BEHIND IT IN SOME
AREAS. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO FILLED IN WHERE NORTHEAST UPSLOPE IS
FAVORED, ALONG WITH THE PIKES PEAK REGION AS WELL. AREA WEBCAMS LOOK
WET ACROSS THE HIGHEST PARTS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE NEAR MONUMENT AS
OF 2AM, THOUGH NONE OF OUR OFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS IN EL PASO COUNTY
HAVE BEGUN TO CARRY PRECIPITATION AS OF YET. RADAR ALSO DOES NOT
SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT RETURNS QUITE YET EITHER. AREA OBSERVATIONS DO
REPORT QUICKLY LOWERING CLOUD DECKS AND RISING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES THOUGH, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE APPROACHING FREEZING
IN MANY AREAS. COLORADO SPRINGS IS ALREADY RIGHT AT 32F AS OF 2 AM,
WITH CEILINGS AT 1200 FT. LEADVILLE IS ALREADY SEEING MODERATE
SNOWFALL, WITH THE NEXT CLOSEST SNOW IN OBSERVATIONS COMING IN AT
BUCKLEY SPACE FORCE BASE JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
SOUTHEAST OF DENVER.
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER UTAH AND
EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER COLORADO. FOR TODAY, WE ARE IN
UPSLOPE FLOW UP TO 700 MB, THOUGH MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE
OF AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE RATHER THAN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS
HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN SNOW TOTALS OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY, WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY, PORTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY, AND
OUR SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. ALL OF THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
AND ARE NOW LOOKING AT GENERALLY 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW DEPENDING ON
THE LOCATION. TOTALS HAVE COME UP FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY
AS WELL, ALONG WITH SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY. FOR THE COLORADO
SPRINGS AREA, HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND WEST OF
I-25, AND ALONG AND NORTH OF WOODMEN ROAD. AT THIS TIME, THESE AREAS
ARE EXPECTED HAVE A LIKELY (70-80%) CHANCE TO SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW BY SATURDAY, WHILE AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THESE ROADWAYS
ARE LIKELY TO SEE GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 INCHES. FOR THE PUEBLO AREA,
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SEE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS RAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A TRANSITION TO
RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE THIS EVENING, AND EVENTUALLY FULL SNOW LATER
TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP OUR SNOW TOTALS LOWER, THOUGH WE ARE STILL
LIKELY TO SEE VERY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS THE
EXPECTED TREND FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS IN FACT, AS EVEN OUR
FAR EASTERN PLAINS, WHERE PRECIP WILL BE BE LIGHTEST, ARE LIKELY (70-
80% CHANCE) TO SEE AROUND 0.2 TO A QUARTER OR SO OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. WITH NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MANAGING TO STICK AROUND TODAY, MANY AREAS COULD SEE
MOSTLY RAIN, AND PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW MIX UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THOUGH, ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE.
FOR OUR MOUNTAINS THOUGH, MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS LIKELY
ACROSS ALL AREAS FROM NOW THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT. SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND BLOWING SNOW ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER AREA MOUNTAIN PASSES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY, WITH SECONDARY ENERGY DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH CONTINUES
TRANSLATE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, COMBINED
WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP MODEST SFC-H7 EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, WHICH BECOMES MORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID, WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL
BE ONGOING OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH THE FOCUS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
EXPECTED DEEP EASTERLY FLOW, WE HAVE ADDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE MID AND UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEYS, THE WET MTN VALLEY, AS WELL AS UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH
THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE. WE ALSO UPGRADED TELLER AND NORTHERN
FREMONT COUNTY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING, AS WELL AS ADDING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SOUTHERN EL PASO AND EASTERN FREMONT
COUNTIES, AND ADDED THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND MAINLY 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN THE
20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND IN THE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE PASSING SYSTEM
LEADS TO TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MAINLY 40S
AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST OF THE DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS, AND 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH SOME MELTING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...AT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH LATEST
MODEL DATA INDICATING MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS, COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS, WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND BACK INTO EASTERN COLORADO TOWARDS THE END
OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TIME WILL TELL, THOUGH THE PATTERN DOES SUGGEST
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS, BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
FOR KCOS..IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OFF AND ON
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WELL AS SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP CEILINGS IFR OR
BETTER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT LEAST, BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO
MOVE ON STATION AFTER 14Z. ONCE SNOW BEGINS, EXPECT WORSENING
CONDITIONS. WINDS ALSO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WORSENING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
NEXT TAF PERIOD DUE TO CONTINUED UPSLOPE.
FOR KPUB..MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, WITH IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 16Z. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
EASTERLY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO UPSLOPE AND WORSENING CEILINGS FOR
KPUB. RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY (80% CHANCE) BETWEEN AROUND 20Z AND
03Z, WITH A RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION COMING IN FROM AROUND 03Z UNTIL
AROUND 07Z. ALL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW
AFTER 07Z TONIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL, AS EASTERLY WINDS
PERSIST.
FOR KALS..VICINITY SHOWERS, VFR CONDITIONS, AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CLOUD DECKS ARE LIKELY FOR KALS TODAY, WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ON STATION WITH SNOW SHOWERS BY 04Z THIS EVENING. SNOW
IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ALONG WITH MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ058-060-
061-063-064-066.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ059-065-
067.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR COZ062-076>078-081>083.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ068.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ072>075-
079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
SATURDAY FOR COZ084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
SATURDAY FOR COZ085.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR COZ087-088.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...EHR
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