532
FXUS65 KPUB 190538
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1138 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
- SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE MTNS, VALLEYS, AND I-25 CORRIDOR
REGION, WITH HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE GREATER WET MOUNTAIN
REGION, WITH SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 6000 FEET
AND ABOVE, ESPECIALLY AFTER 6 PM.
- SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN WARMING
AND DRYING TREND FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
NEXT 24 HOURS...
BENEFICIAL EASTER WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING A MIXED
BAG OF PRECIP TO THE REGION AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW THINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK PROMISING AS
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF COLD AIR WITH IT (SO CONFIDENCE
IN PRECIP TYPE IS HIGH), THE COLUMN IS DEEP AND SATURATED, AND THE
UPSLOPE, ALBEIT RELATIVELY WEAK, IS FAIRLY DEEP AND LASTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RANGE
TO OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER THE WET MTNS TO 0.20 TO 0.50 OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS ANTICIPATED PRECIP WILL HELP PUT A DAMPER OVER
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE UPPER ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY (BUENA VISTA/SALIDA REGIONS) MAY FARE FAIRLY WELL WITH
THIS EVENT ALONG WITH THE WET MTN VALLEY REGION. ADDITIONALLY, SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
SNOWFALL DEPTHS OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR, HOWEVER, MAY BE TRICKY AS IT
WILL FALL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW, WHICH MAY LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE VALLEY FLOOR. THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES WILL FALL OVER THE GRASSY AREAS, BUT IMPACTS ON THE
VALLEY FLOOR MAY BE MINIMAL DUE TO MELTING.
AS FOR EL PASO COUNTY, THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL
TONIGHT, AND THIS WILL FAVOR ACCUMULATING SLUSH ON THE ROADWAYS.
ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS FROM DOWNTOWN COS NORTHWARD TO MONUMENT.
WOULD NOT BE ALL THAT SURPRISED TO SEE 4 TO 8 INCH AMOUNTS OVER
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY, ESPECIALLY ON THE GRASSY AREA, PORCH
DECKS, ETC. ROAD TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE PLENTY WARM TO
KEEP THE PAVEMENT WET ALL ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE, BUT BY 6 PM
THOSE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP AND SLICK TRAVEL IS EXPECTED
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR TOMORROW OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, TEMPS TOMORROW WILL LIKELY
GET INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S MOST REGIONS, AND THIS SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE (BUT NOT ELIMINATE) ANY IMPACTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATING ON
ROADWAYS, ALTHOUGH GRASSY AREAS WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR REGION.
SURFACE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK MINIMAL, SO BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS
APPEAR TO BE QUITE LOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH
ACROSS COLORADO, WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING,
WITH A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT. AS
THIS TROUGH CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT, ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST,
LINGERING THE LATEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER AND ALONG THE
EASTERN BORDER. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO FILTER IN, ALLOWING OVERNIGHT
MINIMUM TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND
20S TO AROUND 30F FOR THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURE-SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY NEED TO BE PROTECTED FOR THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN ACROSS CO FOR SUNDAY, PROVIDING FOR
A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT FOR THE MOST PART CONDITIONS
WILL STABILIZE WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 50F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS
AND MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE PLAINS. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, PRODUCING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LEADING TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS, AND DRY ELSEWHERE WITH
MUCH WARMER TEMPS. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80F FOR THE PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONTINUED WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL SHIFT FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION,
WHILE STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL
DRAW GULF MOISTURE UP ACROSS TX AND OK. INCREASING WIND SHEAR,
COMBINED WITH DRYLINE INTERACTIONS, WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STARTING WED. AS FOR MAXIMUM TEMPS EACH
DAY, PLAN ON 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 60S TO MID 70S
FOR THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
FOR KCOS AND KPUB..MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SNOW
AND MIST ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT, AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF TOMORROW. THOUGH SNOW CHANCES TAPER OFF AFTER 12Z
AT KCOS, AND 18Z AT KPUB, LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER AS SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO KEEP MOIST
UPSLOPE OVER THE AREA. IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY AFTER 03Z, WHEN WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY SHOVES OFF
FURTHER TO OUR EAST.
FOR KALS..EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 22KT AND VICINITY SHOWERS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON STATION AFTER 12Z.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTER 19Z.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ058>061-
063>067.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ062-
076>078-081>083.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ068-
072>075-079-080-087-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ084-085.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...EHR
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