451
FXUS65 KPUB 191122
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
522 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW, RAIN, AND OVERALL MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE CONTINUE TODAY,
THOUGH TOTALS HAVE DECREASED FOR SOME AREAS. TRAVEL IMPACTS
FROM SNOW AND BLACK ICE ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO OUR EASTER MORNING.
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
CURRENTLY..
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OUR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA AS OF 2
AM THIS MORNING, WITH VERY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN THE LOW
LEVELS ACROSS THE PLAINS, MODEST EASTERLY UPSLOPE IN ONGOING, WHICH
HAS HELPED TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS THRIVING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, ALONG WITH OUR
MOUNTAIN ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE IS FAVORED. SNOWFALL
TOTALS OF GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES HAVE BEEN MEASURED BY AREA STORM
SPOTTERS IN EL PASO, TELLER, FREMONT, AND PUEBLO COUNTIES, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS RECORDED OVER LAKE COUNTY FOR YESTERDAY. AS ALWAYS,
BUT ESPECIALLY THIS LATE IN THE SEASON, WE WANT TO THANK OUR
SPOTTERS FOR THEIR SNOW REPORTS!!
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARDS
ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE ALSO
BROUGHT ITS TRACK A TOUCH FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH HAS FURTHER
DIMINISHED TODAY'S ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL CHANCES FOR AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. FOR THIS REASON, TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES WERE
DROPPED FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THESE COUNTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 2
INCHES. DAYTIME HIGHS IN EL PASO ARE ALSO LIKELY TO WARM BACK ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE CITY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF WOODMEN ROAD AND
EAST OF I-25, WHICH WILL ALLOW ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL TO MELT
OFF OF ROADWAYS. OVERALL, ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES FOR THE PIKES PEAK
REGION TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL.
FOR THE REST OF THE PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WARMING
TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO PRECIPITATION TYPES CHANGING BACK TO
MIXED PRECIPITATION, AND EVEN RAIN, LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY, AND ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS,
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST. THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND
FREMONT COUNTY WILL REMAIN IN THEIR RESPECTIVE WINTER STORM WARNINGS
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR NOW, THOUGH THESE AREAS MAY END UP
BEING EXPIRED EARLY. FOR NOW, THESE AREAS STILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF SEEING ADDITIONAL, IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL, AND WILL REMAIN IN THEIR RESPECTIVE WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.
HIGHEST ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS, WHERE UPWARDS OF ANOTHER FOOT OR SO OF NEW
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE
CHILLIEST WE'VE SEEN IN QUITE AWHILE AS WE CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM, WITH MANY OF US GETTING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES OR SO
BELOW NORMAL. LOWS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S ON THE
PLAINS, WITH TEENS FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THIS WILL CAUSE MANY WET
AREAS TO REFREEZE AFTER ALL THE PRECIPITATION WE'VE RECEIVED AND
WILL STILL RECEIVE TODAY. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND BLACK ICE ARE LIKELY
TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO OUR EASTER MORNING. PLEASE
USE CAUTION ON AREA ROADWAYS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO!!
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
SUNDAY-MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE PASSING SPRING STORM SYSTEM
ON SUNDAY, WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY,
AS MORE EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY TRANSLATES THROUGH THE STRONGER ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY,
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, SAVE FOR 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS.
CLOUDS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PARTING SYSTEM, THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MTNS. WARMER AIR ALOFT WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WESTERLY
FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK TO AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INCREASING
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EMBEDDED NORTHER TIER WAVE WILL TO
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM,
AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PROGGED
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, AS MORE
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRANSLATE THROUGH THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS WILL KEEP AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND BACK INTO EASTERN
COLORADO. TIME WILL TELL, THOUGH THE PATTERN DOES SUGGEST CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, AS SAID EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
FOR KCOS AND KPUB..MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SNOW
AND MIST ARE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING,
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LIKELY AFTER 03Z AT KCOS AND 20Z AT KPUB.
BEST CHANCES FOR MORE LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE THIS MORNING, MAINLY
BEFORE 17Z.
FOR KALS..EASTERLY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS
MORNING, WITH PREDOMINANTLY IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH 19Z.
OFF AND ON LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM 12Z THROUGH
15Z, WHEN SNOW AND FOG WILL LIKELY BE MOST DENSE. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY AROUND 01Z THIS EVENING, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING BY 06Z.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ058>061-063>067.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ062-
076>078-083.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ068-
072>075-079-080-087-088.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...EHR
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