118
FXUS65 KPUB 192331
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
531 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW DECREASING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
- COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IN AREAS.
- COLD TONIGHT - FOLKS WHO TURNED ON SPRINKLER SYSTEMS MAY WANT
TO COVER ANY EXPOSED PIPES!!
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
THE SPRING STORM SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT BENEFICIAL MOISTURE TO
MUCH OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY SITTING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES, SUCH AS
THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, THROUGH EARLY TO
MID EVENING. WITH THAT SAID THOUGH, SNOWFALL RATES HAVE DROPPED
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT PERSIST. WITH LOWER
SNOWFALL RATES, AND THE POWER OF THE APRIL SUN, SNOW HAS
STRUGGLED TO ACCUMULATE ON ANY ROAD WAYS, OR COMPLETELY MELTED
WITH THE AFTERNOON SUN, WHICH IS SUPPORTED ON LOCAL CDOT
WEBCAMS. GIVEN THIS, ALL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THAT WERE IN
PLACE HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OR BEEN CANCELLED EARLY, AS
ANY IMPACTS AT THIS POINT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL, WITH
OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF SLUSHY ROADS STILL POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
CURRENTLY...
UPPER LOW WHICH BROUGHT ALL THE BENEFICIAL PRECIP TO A GOOD PART OF
THE REGION WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND WAS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WITH THIS LOW WAS OVER
CENTRAL NM AND EXTENDED NORTH INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. NEARLY ALL
OF THE FCST AREA WAS CLOUDY. TEMPS WERE COOL AT 2 PM WITH 30S ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR, 40S FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND 20S AND 30S OVER THE
MTNS AND VALLEYS.
REST OF TODAY...
HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AS GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIP OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER
HRRR WANTS TO KEEP SHOWERS ONGOING OVER THE MTNS AND VALLEYS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND PLAN TO KEEP HIGHTLIGHTS "AS IS" FOR NOW
AND LET INCOMING SHIFT MODIFY HIGHTLIGHTS AT NECESSARY. OVERALL BEST
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE CONTDVD AND NORTHERN
SANGRES. SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY BUT MOST OF IT
WILL LIKELY NOT ACCUMULATE GIVEN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN IS WILL GET COLD TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY
IT WILL CLEAR OUT MOST AREAS TONIGHT WE SHOULD RADIATE WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW OVER THE GRASSY AREAS. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S OVER THE POPULATED AREAS TONIGHT AND FROZEN
SPRINKLER SYSTEMS/SWAMP COOLER SYSTEMS WILL BE A REAL POSSIBILITY AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS IT WILL BE WARMER
AS CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND LONGER AND EXPECT LOWS IN THE U20S TO
AROUND 30F. MTNS AND VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE 10S.
TOMORROW...
SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. SURFACE FLOW TONIGHT
WILL BE LIGHT ALL AREAS AND WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR LOW T/TD SPREADS AND CANT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY FOG ANY AREA TONIGHT. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. OTHERWISE TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH NICER THAN
TODAY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL BY MID TO LATE MORNING
LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY 60S TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 50S LARGER VALLEYS. \/HODANISH
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MORE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY, PRODUCING A WARMING
AND, FOR THE MOST PART, A DRYING TREND INTO THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH DAYS, AS WELL AS
ENHANCED SURFACE WINDS FOR THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME
VERY SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS MON AFTERNOON, BUT NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80F FOR THE PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY...WED WILL BE A TRICKY DAY AS LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. IF THIS
FEATURE DOES CROSS MT AND WY EARLY WED, THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CO PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY. IF THE SHORTWAVE LAGS BACK TO THE WEST FOR THE DAY, THEN
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DELAYED A DAY. REGARDLESS, THE EXTENDED
PROCEDURE LEANED TOWARDS THE SOLUTION WITH EARLIER MOVEMENT OF THE
SHORTWAVE, AFFECTING FORECASTED WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
VERY WARM DAY AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH HIGH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR
TO THOSE ON MON AND TUE, SO HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS,
AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80F FOR THE PLAINS. ISOLATED TO LOW-END
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR
THU AND FRI DUE TO POST FRONTAL EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW, THEN WARMING
BACK UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT AS SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION,
WITH THU HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DRYLINE INTERACTION WILL BECOME MORE OF A
PLAYER STARTING FRIDAY. MOORE
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
KALS: MFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST HALF OF THIS
TAF PERIOD, EITHER DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND/OR LOW VISIBILITY. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY INTO MID TO LATE
EVENING. IF THE TERMINAL SITE WAS IMPACTED BY ONE OF THESE SHOWERS,
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS WOULD BE EXPECTED TO DROP. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
THIS EVENING AS WINDS LESSEN AND SKIES CLEAR. IT IS POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPS WITHIN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND COULD
DROP THE TERMINAL SITE TO LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MID
TO LATE TOMORROW MORNINGS AS ANY LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
KCOS AND KPUB: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES
THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING GIVEN LOW CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE
LATE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT SAID, MVFR, TO POSSIBLY
IFR, CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING GIVEN POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL, WITH WINDS REMAINING
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SIMCOE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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