212
FXUS65 KPUB 031108
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
508 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT DRY PLAINS.
- PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
TODAY...
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON
AND THE DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST MOVES ONSHORE AND
STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST, WITH STORMS
AFFECTING THE SAN LUIS VALLEY BY LATER IN THE DAY.
OVER THE PLAINS TODAY, IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER THE PLAINS WITH TEMPS
AROUND 70 OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. 50S AND 60S MTNS.
TONIGHT...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE INTERIOR BUT IT WILL BE
STABLE. LIKEWISE EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE PLAINS. MINS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN TEH 40S PLAINS AND 30S VALLEYS. \/HODANISH
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN ALLOWING FOR AN UPPER LOW TO SPIN
ACROSS THE REGION AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL LIKELY. ONCE THIS
PATTERN BREAKS DOWN FOR LATE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WITH DAILY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS MENTIONED, AN UPPER LOW WILL
BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH MULTIPLE
LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW, REFORMING ACROSS
KANSAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EACH PIECE OF ENERGY WILL LEAD
TO PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO.
THE FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHWEST COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTHWARD, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUE AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WITH LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND PEA SIZE HAIL
ALL POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
A MORE ROBUST WAVE OF ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO THE PLAINS, WITH PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEEK,
WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG ALONG A MOISTURE AXIS NEAR THE
I-25 CORRIDOR, AND COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ENHANCED
RAINFALL AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A THIRD UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTH ON TUESDAY, WHICH
WILL HELP REFORM THE UPPER LOW ACROSS KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN EASTERLY AND KEEP MOISTURE
POOLED ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LOW
REFORMS OVER KANSAS, FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY
ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION IS STILL ANTICIPATED, BUT INTENSITY
LOOKS TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION TOTALS, MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY
WITH THE LATEST RUNS, BUT MOST SOLUTIONS ARE PUTTING TOTALS IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. DESI
PROBS OF 1.5 INCHES ARE IN THE 55-85% RANGE ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SO CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST AN
INCH OF LIQUID FROM EARLY TO MIDWEEK IS ON THE HIGHER SIDE.
SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS, BUT COULD SEE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS NEAR A FOOT, MAINLY ABOVE 11 KFT DURING THIS
PERIOD.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDING IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY AND SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAINS. DAILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE WARM, WITH 70S TO NEAR 80S ON THE
PLAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH 50S AND 60S FOR HIGHS. WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. MOZLEY
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS, NEAR 10 TO 12 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AT EACH SITE THIS AFTERNOON. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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