683
FXUS65 KPUB 032048
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
248 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY, WITH ACTIVITY
SPREADING ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
- PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
- WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN STARTING
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER THE ERN SAN JUANS/LA GARITAS AND
SRN SANGRES AT MID-AFTERNOON, AS FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME WEAKLY
DIFFLUENT AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. STORM
STRENGTH AND PRECIPITATION WERE BEING LIMITED BY RATHER DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER, AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. FOR THIS EVENING, EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO
PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS/LIGHTNING
THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS. CONVECTION ENDS AFTER SUNSET, AS WEAK
DYNAMIC UPWARD MOTION DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN NEAR/BELOW
FREEZING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS, SLIGHTLY WARMER MINS ON THE
PLAINS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND WINDS STIR. TOWARD MORNING.
ON SUNDAY, UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA SHIFTS INTO AZ DURING THE DAY,
WITH FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CO BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LACKING, MID
LEVELS BEGIN TO MOISTEN, AND WITH STRONGER DYNAMIC UPWARD MOTION
EXPECTED, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT SOME WEAKER
CONVECTION TO MAKE IT ONTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR/PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON
AS WELL, WITH CAMS SUGGESTING SOME STRONGER ACTIVITY PUSHING
NORTHWARD OUT OF NM AND OVER THE RATON MESA BY 00Z AS PERSISTENT S-
SE SURFACE FLOW SLOWLY MOISTENS THE SURFACE LAYER ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TEMPS LOOKS TO STAY WITHIN A FEW DEGF OF SAT MAXES, AS INCREASING
AFTERNOON CLOUDS KEEP ANY WARMING LIMITED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
POTENT SPRING STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT NEW SNOW TO THE
MT PEAKS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AZ SUN NIGHT, THEN TRACK UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND
REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS WAS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL PROVIDE
THE SPARK FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AND STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN MTS THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN
THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT A MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND TRACKING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. CONSISTENT RAIN FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR THE MT PEAKS IS EXPECTED MON, WITH THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER
ACTIVITY SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE EASTERN MTS AND
SLOPES, THEN REACHING THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. SPC
HAS A SLIVER OF A MARGINAL AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER REACHING UP INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CO, AND NAM INDICATES AN INCREASE IN CAPE LATE IN THE
DAY. FEEL THE BEST SHOT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR LATE, MORE TOWARDS EL PASO, TELLER, NORTHERN PUEBLO AND
EASTERN FREMONT COUNTIES, IF AT ALL.
TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND
THE LOW, KICKING IT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS LOCALE ON TUE AND
QUICKLY TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NM INTO THE PANHANDLES TUE EVE.
THIS TRACK WILL MAKE TUE THE WETTEST DAY FOR THE EASTERN MTS AND
EASTERN PLAINS, WITH SIGNIFICANT NEW SNOWFALL FOR THE MTS ABOVE 11K
FEET. TOTAL NEW SNOW AMOUNTS MAY CLIMB TO 2 FEET THROUGH THE DAY
FOR SOME OF THE PEAKS, THOUGH BELOW 11K FEET SNOW WILL BE VERY
WET AND LIKELY MELTING UPON HITTING THE GROUND, SO TRAVEL SHOULD
NOT BE GREATLY AFFECTED. HOWEVER, 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN MAY
FALL THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS ALL OF THE EASTERN PLAINS, SO THESE
AMOUNTS ON TOP OF WHAT FALLS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR
SATURATED GROUNDS.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW TRACKS UP INTO EASTERN KS, WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY, THEN GREATLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING.
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM COMES IN AROUND 1.5 TO
2 INCHES OF LIQUID FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS, THOUGH
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER MAY SEE TOTALS OF
2.5 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER. THESE AMOUNTS DO SEEM HIGH, BUT KEEP IN
MIND THAT THIS IS OVER A 4 DAY TIMEFRAME. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP AND TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS AN AREA, RAPID ACCUMULATION WILL
BECOME A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY MON EVENING THROUGH TUE WHEN THE
GROUND WILL LIKELY BE MORE SATURATED.
AS FOR TEMPS, THIS WILL BE A MUCH COOLER PERIOD DUE TO THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPS EACH DAY
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F FOR MOST AREAS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE
WILL HELP INITIATE A DAILY SHOT OF ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED
CONVECTION, MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
REBOUND AS WELL, WARMING TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH 60S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS, AND 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE PLAINS.
SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SLIDE EAST, WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE
UPSWING, SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM, AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY SPILLING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MOORE
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. LOW RISK OF A -SHRA AT
KALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT CHANCE LOOKS TOO LOW (LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT) TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. WILL ALSO NEED TO
MONITOR WINDS AT KALS 22Z-04Z, AS CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
DISSIPATES AND PRODUCES GUSTY OUTFLOWS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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