252
FXUS65 KPUB 041128
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
528 AM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH ABOUT NOONTIME, THEN STORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
MTNS AND EVENTUALLY PUSH OUT ONTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING.
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS, ACROSS THE PLAINS.
- SNOW FOR AREAS ABOVE 10 TO 11 KFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
AN IMPRESSIVE 500 MB TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND THIS SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING THE REGION
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH ABOUT NOONTIME TODAY, THEN MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH, WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CONTDVD
LATER THIS MORNING, AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MTNS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH ONTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, BUT IT IS LIKELY THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL
NOT MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.
MANY AREAS WILL SEE THEIR FIRST CHANCE OF THUNDER LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. NO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE PRECIP STARTING LATER TODAY WILL LIKELY BE SNOW AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS INITIALLY (11K), BUT WILL GRADUALLY DROP DOWN TO
~9000 FEET BY SUNRISE MONDAY. SOME ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY,
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES LATE
TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER THE REGION WILL BE WARM, WITH 70S TO L80S
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS, AND M60S OVER THE VALLEYS. MIN TEMPS BY
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S PLAINS, 30S VALLEYS AND 20S MTNS.
\/HODANISH
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING, WITH A PERIOD
OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, INCLUDING HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DAILY DIURNAL
CONVECTION.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND REFORM ACROSS KANSAS BY
MIDWEEK. SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AROUND THE SYSTEM,
LEADING TO PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
PLAINS, AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL.
THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY,
WITH MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODEST INSTABILITY,
AROUND 500 J/KG WILL HELP AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID
MORNING, AND PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ON THE PLAINS, BUT HAVE A FEELING STORMS
WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND COOL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME, 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 INCH HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURING IS AROUND 20
PERCENT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, SNOW WILL CONTINUE, WITH GENERALLY 4 TO 8 INCHES ABOVE
10 KFT, AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 12 KFT. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE COOL, WITH 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL ROUND THE LOW AS IT MOVE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO ON TUESDAY. DEEP UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE
POOLED ON THE PLAINS, AND LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING POSSIBLE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS,
AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. AREAS ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE EVENING, AS PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SEE AMOUNTS
FALL OFF TUESDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, AND WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO, WET AND
RAMPART RANGES. DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS, WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON. STILL
EXPECTING AT LEAST PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON WEDNESDAY, WITH 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. SNOW WILL ALSO BE DISSIPATING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION TOTALS, QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ON THE PLAINS, WITH THE
MAIN FOCUS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER. AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COULD
SEE STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS (INCLUDING PERIODS BEYOND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TIME FRAME) OF NEARLY A FOOT. THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE 1 TO 2 FEET, ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 12 KFT, AND WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED WITH FUTURE SHIFTS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND
STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
COLORADO. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMING CONDITIONS, WITH 70S TO NEAR
80 BY THE WEEKEND. RESIDUAL MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP CONVECTION TIED TO
THE TERRAIN, HOWEVER, A FEW CELLS COULD DRIFT INTO THE ADJACENT
PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. MOZLEY
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 5 KFT. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, REDUCED VIS AND CIGS POSSIBLE. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH
TERMINALS. RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO KPUB LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
TUESDAY FOR COZ060-066-068.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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