349
FXUS65 KPUB 042032
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
232 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT, WHILE MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
- A WAVE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MON MORNING, THEN
A STRONGER WAVE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. SNOW FOR
AREAS ABOVE 10K FEET.
- WARMING TREND RETURNS STARTING THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DIFFLUENT SLY FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS/INTERIOR VALLEYS AT MID-
AFTERNOON, THOUGH STORMS HAVE YET TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS PAST I-25
ONTO THE PLAINS IS CURRENTLY PROMOTING A N-NW STORM MOTION. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEST FORCING FOR CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS, WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALONG I-25 AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS, CAMS SUGGEST AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE, WITH LEAST CHANCE
FOR STORMS FATHER EAST TOWARD THE KS BORDER. AFTER MIDNIGHT, MAIN
FOCUS FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH ALONG THE NM BORDER,
THOUGH EXPECT AT LEAST OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO SPILL NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA INTO MON MORNING. SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT WILL STAY IN THE 9K-
10K FOOT RANGE, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ERN SAN JUANS BY SUNRISE.
ON MONDAY, UPPER LOW TRUDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH AZ, AS VERY
BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES. HRRR AND NAM SUGGEST AN INITIAL
WAVE OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MORNING,
BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE LOW IN THE AFTERNOON,
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WOULD APPEAR TO FOCUSED ON THE SRN SLOPES OF PIKES
PEAK WHERE OROGRAPHIC FLOW IS MOST FAVORABLE, WITH SOME POCKETS OF
HEAVY PRECIP ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN SANGRES/WETS AND FREMONT
COUNTY. GIVEN THIS IS THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN AND THE FACT
THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY (15-25 KTS),
WON'T BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS POINT, AS STREAMS AND
SOIL ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE THE CAPACITY TO ABSORB A GOOD DEAL OF
RAINFALL. WHILE SWODY1 HAS MARGINAL RISK NOSING INTO LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY, SUSPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY AND STORM
STRENGTH THROUGH THE DAY, KEEPING ANY SEVERE THREAT LOW-END AND
BRIEF. SNOW LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO HANG OUT IN THE 9K-10KT FOOT
RANGE, AND WITH CURRENT QPF SUPPORTING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OVER MANY MOUNTAIN PEAKS, WILL START A LONG-RUNNING WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR PIKES PEAK AND THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE SANGRES/WETS
AT 18Z. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS COOL, WITH MAINLY 50S
LOWER ELEVATIONS, 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
MODELS ARE DOUBLING DOWN ON A POTENT SPRING STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SIGNIFICANT NEW SNOW TO THE MT PEAKS.
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO NORTHERN
NM MONDAY EVENING, WITH PERSISTENT RAIN AND STORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SPC KEPT THE MARGINAL AREA
FOR SEVERE STORMS UP ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR, AND ACCORDING TO THE
NAM BEST CAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 5 PM TO 8 PM TIMEFRAME. FEEL
THAT THERE MAY BE STRONGER STORMS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD, PRODUCING
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SUB-SEVERE HAIL. MODELS AS WELL
AS WPC HAVE REALLY HIT THE QPF HARD, AND EVEN WITH SOME MODERATION
ON THIS END TOTAL STORM QPF AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SNOWFALL HAS RAMPED
UP. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
PEAKS OF THE EASTERN MTS SINCE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL ACCUMULATE FROM 10K FEET UP.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE LOW AS IT EDGES
NORTH TO THE CO AND NM STATE LINE. TUE STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST
DAY FOR THE EASTERN MTS AND EASTERN PLAINS, WITH SIGNIFICANT NEW
SNOWFALL FOR THE MTS ADDING UP AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS ALL
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS, AND SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRETY OF CO UNDER
THE GENERAL THUNDER AREA. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS, IF THEY
DEVELOP, WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TUE FOR POTENTIAL
FLOODING THREAT.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW FINALLY STARTS TO PUSH EAST, MOVING INTO KS BY
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY, THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM COMES IN AROUND 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES OF LIQUID FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS, BUT THE EASTERN SLOPES
MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF LIQUID THROUGH THIS 4 DAY TIMEFRAME.
IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP AND TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS AN AREA,
RAPID ACCUMULATION WILL BECOME A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY ON TUE WHEN THE
GROUND WILL BE MORE SATURATED FROM PCPN ON PREVIOUS DAYS.
AS FOR TEMPS, PLAN ON DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND FREEZING FOR
THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR THE PLAINS. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST POCKETS TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN WED
NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION
AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE WILL HELP INITIATE A DAILY SHOT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING MT
CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE REBOUND AS WELL, WARMING INTO THE
60S FOR MOST AREAS ON THU, THEN FOR FRI AND SAT THE 60S TO NEAR 70F
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE PLAINS.
SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SLIDE EAST, WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE
UPSWING, WITH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION LIKELY WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
SPILLING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WARMING,
NEARING 70F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS AND NEARING 80F ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MOORE
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT SUN MAY 4 2025
AT KCOS AND KPUB, RISK OF VCSH BEGINS AROUND 21Z-23Z,
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, CIGS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR BY 05Z, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING AS WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z MON.
AT KALS, VCSH DEVELOPS FROM 20Z ONWARD, WITH A CHANCE FOR A TSRA
AND MVFR CIGS/VIS 21Z-03. OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
PREVAILING CONDITIONS BECOME MVFR, WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT
TUESDAY FOR COZ060-066-068.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR COZ073-075-080-082.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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