065
FXUS65 KPUB 050959
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
359 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
- BEST CHANCE OF THE HEAVIES PRECIP ACROSS THE FCST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE PIKES
PEAK MASSIF EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS FREMONT COUNTY.
- MORE SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
ROUND ONE OF THE HEAVY PRECIP SHOULD START TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE POINTING TOWARDS
THE EAST SLOPE OF THE PIKES PEAK MASSIF EXTENDING BACK INTO FREMONT
COUNTY. ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF WILL BE
LIKELY, AND THIS WILL BE HEAVY SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
MAIN CONCERN I HAVE IS HOW MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE TELLER COUNTY REGION, I,E, WOODLAND PARK?
FOR NOW I HAVE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WOODLAND PARK AREA, BUT
THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH, AND THE DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THIS
CAREFULLY, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS AND THE HEAVY
PRECIP CONTINUES. I SHOULD NOTE EVEN IF HEAVY SNOW OCCURS IN THE
WOODLAND PARK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TEMPERATURES ARE
GOING TO REMAIN RATHER WARM, WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE WOODLAND PARK
AREA ONLY REACHING TO AROUND 32 TOWARDS SUNRISE TUESDAY.
HIGHER UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IT WILL BE A NO-BRAINER WITH RESPECT TO
HEAVY SNOW, WITH 6-12" LIKELY ACROSS THE WETS/SANGRES INTERFACE
ABOVE 10000 FEET.
AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION, WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN LIKELY TO
NEAR CERTAIN (70 - 100%) DURING THIS SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD.
LATER ON THIS EVENING, THE FIRST ROUND OF STEADIER PRECIP WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION, BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT "ROUND 2" OF THIS STORM
WILL START TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH PRIOR TO SUNRISE, WITH NORTH-
BOUND HEAVY PRECIP LIKELY ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER FROM THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES OUT TO THE OK/KS/CO BORDER AREA BY SUNRISE. \/HODANISH
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
MIDWEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATER
THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DEEP, MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER WAVE LIFTING
NORTH AROUND THE MAIN LOW TO THE SOUTH. MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SNOWFALL ALL OF TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
CURRENT MODEL PROGS ARE IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH QPF RANGE. DESI PROBS
HAVE 85 PERCENT OR GREATER CHANCES FOR 2.5 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL, AND SOME UPPER END GUIDANCE PUSHES 4 TO 5 INCHES FOR
TELLER COUNTY AND THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE WET MOUNTAINS, ALL OF
THIS OCCURRING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS ARE
LIKELY TO FALL TO NEAR 8500 FEET FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, WITH
1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE RAMPARTS,
PIKES PEAK, SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAIN RANGES. BY THE
TIME PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER MONUMENT HILL. FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS, FLOODING MAY BE AN ISSUE, ESPECIALLY IF THE
HIGHER END AMOUNTS FALL. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT COORDINATE WITH
THE HYDROLOGIST AND RIVER FORECAST CENTER TO DETERMINE FLOOD
POTENTIAL.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY, SHUTTING OFF THE DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW.
THAT BEING SAID, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIPITATION INTENSITIES TO WIND DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ENDING BY
MID DAY.
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL, WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S, WITH NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE BOTH NIGHTS. THOSE WITH
SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM,
MAINLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO DAILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LIGHTNING, OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
WOULD BE THE MAIN STORM RISKS. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
ALLOW FOR A STORM OR TWO TO MOVE INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OUT WEST
FORCING FLOW ALOFT TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY. CONTINUED DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE 60S AND INTO
THE 80S FOR THE PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. MOZLEY
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN WAVES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ONE WAVE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO ATTM. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT COS, PUB AND ALS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z MON. EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
LOWER CIGS TO MVFR AND IFR CIGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THE
TERMINALS, WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, AS ANOTHER WAVE
OF ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ060-066-
068.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR COZ072-074-079-081.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COZ073-075-080-082.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
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