075
FXUS65 KPUB 060455
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1055 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, THEN HEAVIER BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ROTATES NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO TUESDAY
MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY, WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 8500 FEET.
- HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST, ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY MOTHER'S DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
UPPER LOW OVER AZ WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH NM TONIGHT AND TUE,
WITH DEEP LAYERED EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SRN CO. FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WAS ROTATING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH CAMS/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING A BREAK IN THE
HEAVIER/STEADIER RAINFALL LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, THOUGH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT MANY
LOCATIONS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. UPWARD MOTION INCREASES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS LOW MOVES INTO PRIME POSITION OVER CENTRAL NM, WITH
EASTERLY FLOW OF 20-40 KTS FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 500 MB ACROSS
THE AREA. BAND OF PRECIP ALONG THE NM BORDER BEFORE SUNRISE WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD AND EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MUCH OF THE DAY. HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS, WHERE UPSLOPE AND DYNAMIC LIFT ARE
MAXIMIZED. EXPECT QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS (12Z-00Z) TUE
TO RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS/I-25
CORRIDOR/ERN PLAINS, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH FARTHER WEST OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
REGARDING SNOWFALL, WE'LL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST OCCASIONAL SNOW DOWN
TO 7000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUE, AND WHILE SEVERAL
INCHES OF WET SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 7000-8500 FEET, SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 FEET ARE LIKELY ABOVE 8500 FEET, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES OF PIKES PEAK AND THE
WETS/SANGRES. HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR
THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE SANGRES/WETS/PIKES PEAK, AND ADDED AN
ADVISORY TO NRN FREMONT AND ERN LAKE COUNTIES AS WELL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HEAVY PRECIP COULD EVEN DRAG THE SNOW LEVEL DOWN
BELOW 7000 FEET FOR SEVERAL HOURS TUE AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD
PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF HEAVY WET SNOW, ACCUMULATING
MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES, FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS MONUMENT/BLACK
FOREST, THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY, MANITOU SPRINGS, CHEYENNE MOUNTAIN
VICINITY AND AROUND RYE/BEULAH. NOT CONVINCED YET THIS WILL
HAPPEN AS A GOOD DEAL OF STATISTICAL AND BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST WE MAY STAY TOO WARM, THOUGH SITUATION NEEDS TO BE MONITORED
FOR POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF WINTER HIGHLIGHTS, ESPECIALLY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TUE.
HYDRO-WISE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN LIGHT TO
MODERATE (LESS THAN A HALF INCH), AND WITH OVERNIGHT PRECIP LOOKING
FAIRLY LIGHT (QUARTER INCH OR LESS), SOILS AND CREEKS/STREAMS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE INITIAL ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN OF TUESDAY, THOUGH
RISES TO NEAR BANKFULL ARE POSSIBLE AS RUN-OFF INCREASES BY LATE
DAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY..
MODELS BRING THE UPPER LOW INTO THE OKLAHOMA-TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, LEADING TO
DEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN
ADJACENT PLAINS. FOR NOW, HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING LOOK TO BE FAVORED ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
RAMPARTS, THE WETS, AND THE SANGRES, WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7,000FT. A COUPLE INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND THE
RATON MESA AS WELL, ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF COLORADO SPRINGS ALONG
AND WEST OF I-25. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO FREEZING FOR ELEVATIONS AROUND 6500-7000FT, AND HAVE TRENDED
COLDER WITH THIS NEWEST MODEL RUN. THESE SLIGHTLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE. IF THIS TREND TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES, WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE PALMER MAY BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRECIP RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE
LOW WEAKENS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH IT OUT INTO
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW WEAKENS, POPS
WILL DECREASE, THOUGH MODELS DO KEEP AT LEAST NUMEROUS POPS OVER ALL
OF OUR PLAINS THROUGH 6PM. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REMAIN
IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY..
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY, AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAVERSE THROUGH THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY, AS
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE WEAK AND SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ALL THREE DAYS. BY SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN JUANS.
SUNDAY ONWARDS..
BY SUNDAY, MODELS BEGIN TO BRING OUR NEXT UPPER LOW ONSHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL INCREASE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
COLORADO TO START OUT NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, THIS LOOKS TO BRING HIGHS
IN THE 80S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO MUCH OF OUR PLAINS, CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS FOR MID-
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT COS AND PUB THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WILL SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING, WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEADING TO LOW CIGS AND FOG THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEXT, MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE, WILL LIFT
OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
DEVELOPING AT PUB AND COS BETWEEN 10Z-14Z, WITH IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT ALS WITH SHOWERS ROTATING UP ACROSS
THE SLV THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO NOON MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ060-066-
068.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO NOON MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR COZ072-074-079-081.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ073-075-
080-082.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MW
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