508
FXUS65 KPUB 060939
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
339 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR THE PLAINS, HEAVY SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
- SHARP SNOW GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER ANY SNOW
BANDS.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW COMES TO AN END
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- WARMER ON THE PLAINS AND MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A STRONG UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT, GIVING US WET AND IMPACTFUL WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DEEP, PERSISTENT, AND FAIRLY BREEZY EAST
WINDS (SOME MODELS SHOW 700MB FLOW OF 25-35 KNOTS OR SO) OVER THE
PLAINS, FUNNELING PLENTY OF MOIST UPSLOPE INTO THE MOUNTAINS/PLAINS
INTERFACE. AS A RESULT, PRECIPITATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE CWA, ALONG WITH LOW, THICK CLOUDS AND GENERALLY WET AND COLD
CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS AND IMPACTS WITH THIS PASSING
SYSTEM WILL MAINLY BE SPLIT INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
FOR THE PLAINS, LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECENT SPREAD, BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
IS FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TO GET AT LEAST A HALF-INCH TO AN
INCH OF PRECIPITATION BY TONIGHT, WHILE PORTIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS/PLAINS INTERFACE AND ADJACENT SLOPES MAY BE GETTING
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE, BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES. INCREASED LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON WHERE
ANY STRONGER, SHOWERY-TYPE PRECIP BANDS MANAGE TO SET UP. SOME HREF
MEMBERS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THOSE AREAS,
BUT EVEN THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WILL HAVE TROUBLE DISCERNING EXACT
PLACEMENTS. WHILE THE RAIN WILL BE GENERALLY STEADY AS WE MOVE
TOWARDS MID-WEEK, HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES WILL BE MID-MORNING TODAY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, LARGELY FOCUSED JUST WEST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR. LOW-LYING AREAS, AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE, AND AREAS CLOSE
BY TO ANY CREEKS OR RIVERS WILL BE AT AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLOODING
STARTING TODAY.
LOOKING AT THE MOUNTAINS, WINTER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN IN A BIG WAY
AT THE PEAKS. SNOW LEVELS NEAR AND EAST OF OUR SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW ABOUT 7500 FEET. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM IS FUNNELING INTO OUR AREA, PAIRED WITH
PERSISTENT, STRONG UPSLOPING WINDS, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HEAVY. THE
PEAKS OF THE SANGRES, WETS, PORTIONS OF THE SAWATCH RANGE, AND PIKES
PEAK, COULD ALL BE SEEING SEVERAL *FEET* OF WET, HEAVY SNOW.
MEANWHILE, THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE LESS PROLIFIC AMOUNTS,
THOUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES (SPECIFICALLY LA VETA, WOLF CREEK, AND
MONARCH PASSES) COULD ALL BE SEEING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE
TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT AND SNOW AMOUNTS. WIND GUSTS APPEAR
RELATIVELY WEAK AT THIS TIME, SO BLOWING SNOW IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL BE THE LESS CERTAIN
AREAS FOR SNOWFALL, NAMELY TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS
WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE HERE, AND WILL DRASTICALLY ALTER HOW MUCH
SNOW IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. TELLER COUNTY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY, IF NOT ENTIRELY, ABOVE THE SNOW LINE FOR THIS
EVENT, MAKING THINGS SLIGHTLY EASIER. HOWEVER, AMOUNTS WILL STILL
VARY BY AREA, DEPENDING ON THE TERRAIN. IN GENERAL, MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE COUNTY WILL BE SEEING 8-12 INCHES BY THE END OF TONIGHT,
THOUGH SOME AREAS EITHER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, OR THOSE AREAS WITH
EAST-FACING SLOPES, COULD BE SEEING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
OR MORE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MEANWHILE, EL PASO COUNTY IS MUCH MORE VULNERABLE TO CHANGES IN SNOW
LEVEL, AS FAR AS THIS EVENT IS CONCERNED. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE HIGH-30S TO LOW-40S, BUT THERE
ARE OTHER CONSIDERATIONS TO NOTE HERE. NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CHANCE
FOR SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PRIOR TO MIDDAY, NETTING US A FEW HOURS
OF POTENTIAL SNOW BANDING. IF ANY SNOW BANDS DO MANAGE TO SET UP,
THEY COULD EASILY OVERCOME ANY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DROP
IMPACTFUL SNOW AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TERRAIN.
THE PALMER DIVIDE, SINCE IT IS NOT AS SENSITIVE TO EASTERLY
UPSLOPING, SHOULDN'T SEE TOO MUCH SNOW FROM THIS EITHER WAY,
PARTICULARLY THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE COUNTY. HREF MEMBERS SHOW,
ON AVERAGE, A TRACE OF SNOW TO AROUND 2 INCHES. A FEW LOCALIZED
SPOTS, IF SNOW BANDS FORM, COULD GET UP TO 4 INCHES. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES TODAY, THAT ACCUMULATION WOULD LARGELY BE
ON GRASSY OR SHADED AREAS, AND GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS
THE LOWER AMOUNTS.
WHERE THINGS BECOME EVEN MORE DIFFICULT IS WESTERN EL PASO,
SPECIFICALLY AREAS BORDERING TELLER COUNTY. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
UPSLOPE, THE SNOW GRADIENT WILL BE EXTREMELY NARROW, WITH SEVERAL
FEET OF ACCUMULATION ON THE SLOPES AND, POSSIBLY, NEXT TO NOTHING
JUST A FEW MILES EAST. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THAT GRADIENT. IF SNOW BANDS MANAGE TO SET UP, SNOW
LEVELS JUST EAST OF THE SLOPES WILL DROP, AND FAR-WESTERN EL PASO
COULD BE SEEING A FEW MILES WORTH OF AREA WITH SNOW AMOUNTS SIMILAR
TO THOSE IN THE MOUNTAINS, POSSIBLY A FOOT OR MORE. AS OF THIS
MOMENT, MODELS ARE VERY SPLIT ON WHERE TO PUT THE GRADIENT, GIVEN
VARIOUS RESOLUTION ISSUES, TERRAIN ISSUES, INCONSISTENCIES IN THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES, AND TEMPERATURES/SNOW LEVELS IN GENERAL.
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE NATURE OF THIS SNOW GRADIENT, AM NOT
PLANNING ON ISSUING ANY WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR EL PASO AS OF NOW.
WILL MESSAGE THOROUGHLY FOR ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES AS NEW MODEL DATA
BECOMES AVAILABLE.
OVERALL, AN INCREDIBLY WET, COOL, IMPACTFUL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE IN
OUR AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND EDGES INTO COLORADO FROM
LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO ON WEDNESDAY, AS IT DRIFTS INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. AN EMBEDDED UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OVER
EASTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY, WITH CONTINUED RAIN ON THE PLAINS,
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. ACROSS THE PLAINS, LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY, WITH LESS UPSLOPE FLOW TO AID IN
PRECIPITATION GENERATION. THAT BEING SAID, EXPECTED CONTINUED
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH LESS INTENSITY, ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED MOSTLY ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE IT
WILL CONTINUE TO PILE UP, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, PRECIPITATION WILL START TO WIND DOWN,
AND LOOKS TO COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO COLORADO, AND THE UPPER
LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
THE PALMER DIVIDE, AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE
PLAINS. THOSE WITH SENSITIVE PLANTS NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL
LIKELY WANT TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEM.
ONE THING WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ARE RIVER LEVELS ON THE
PLAINS. IT MAY TAKE A DAY OR TWO FOR RIVERS TO RESPOND TO THE
PRECIPITATION, AND SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RIVER TRENDS, AND
KEEP AN EYE ON ANY UPDATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MENTIONED
ABOVE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO COLORADO
FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL HELP
DEVELOP DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED OT THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD, AND DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY, WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS, WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL TURN FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO SOUTHWESTERLY, AND PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, WITH A FEW POSSIBLY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE PALMER
DIVIDE AREA. WINDS COULD ALSO INCREASE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR,
ESPECIALLY IN GAP WIND PRONE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO WARM, WITH MID 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE PLAINS. MOZLEY
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,
BLANKETING ALL THREE TAF SITES KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS, MIST, AND SOME FOG. CONDITIONS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN IFR, WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR POSSIBLE UNDER ANY
STRONG SHOWERS THAT FORM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON, EARLY EVENING, WHERE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
BACK TOWARDS MVFR CIGS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ058-
076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ060.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ060.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COZ066-068.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ072-074-
079-081.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ073-075-
080-082.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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