336
FXUS65 KPUB 071519
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
919 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS SLOWLY DECREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH A BIT MORE
RAIN FOR THE PLAINS AND A FEW EXTRA INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
- DAILY SHOT OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND STARTING THURSDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 916 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FALLING AS
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MELT AS IT FALLS, WITH LITTLE TO NO
CONTINUED TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM SNOW EXPECTED. FOR THIS REASON, THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AS A
SECONDARY LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH, AS
THE INITIAL LOW WOBBLES SLOWLY EAST OF US. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS I-25
WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE NORTHERLY, ALLOWING FOR SOME DRY
DOWNSLOPING TO CUT DOWN ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE, WITH ANOTHER HALF-INCH OR SO OF SLUSHY, MELTING SNOW
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO MIDDAY. OTHERWISE, RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE, FINALLY
STARTING TO FULLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
PLAINS WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, HELPING
THINGS ALONG, WITH 50S TO LOW-60S EXPECTED. MEANWHILE, SNOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS, PARTICULARLY OUR SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE WETS,
SOUTHERN SANGRES, AND PIKES PEAK. THE REST OF THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS
WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES ON AVERAGE.
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING, ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WILL DWINDLE
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH LAST
NIGHT, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR-40. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT, AND CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY START TO DECREASE,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM FINALLY
EXITS TO THE EAST ON THU, ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN, THEN ACROSS THE ROCKY MT REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO SETTLE IN FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, THOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WILL HELP
SPARK A DAILY CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED
TO LIKELY FOR THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS, WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY SPILLING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR ONTO THE PLAINS. LOOK FOR
HIGHS THU IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 60S TO
NEAR 70F FOR THE PLAINS, THEN FRI AND SAT WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE PLAINS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NW STARTING ON SUN, INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO CO. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALL THREE DAYS, AS WELL AS DRY
THINGS OUT SLIGHTLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL STILL BE A
DAILY CHANCE FOR SOME MT CONVECTION, BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AND
BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED. AS FOR TEMPS, WE JUMP
BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S FOR THE PLAINS.
MOORE
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 338 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH PATCHY MIST/FOG POSSIBLE, SLOWLY IMPROVING
TO MVFR AS SHOWERS IN THE AREA DWINDLE LATER THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS, BEFORE PRECIPITATION FINALLY WANES THIS EVENING TOWARDS
THE END OF THIS 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ058-061-
063-076-078.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ060-072>075-
079>082.
UPDATE...EHR
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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