445
FXUS65 KPUB 080448
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1048 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WE WARM UP AND CLEAR OUT FOR OUR THURSDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY,
MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
CURRENTLY..
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXITING LOW PULLING OFF FURTHER TO OUR
EAST OVER THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 1PM,
WINDS ARE MAINLY NORTHERLY AND NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FOR ALL LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. CEILINGS ARE LOW, AND MANY MOUNTAIN
PASSES ARE SHOWING FOG ON AREA WEBCAMS AND IN OBSERVATIONS. RADAR
SHOWS CONTINUED RAIN AND SNOW OVER TELLER AND WESTERN EL PASO
COUNTIES, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S ON THE PLAINS, WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS COMING IN OVER MONUMENT HILL AT 34F. EVEN PORTIONS
OF TELLER ARE ABOVE FREEZING, TO INCLUDE WOODLAND PARK (35F) AND
DIVIDE (39F) AS OF 1PM.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT..
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT OFF TO OUR EAST, SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND WEAKER THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DRY US OUT SLOWLY, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WHERE DOWNSLOPING WILL BE STRONGEST WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS. OUR FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE ANOMALOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THAT WE
RECEIVED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, AND WEAK WINDS IN PLACE, IT WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR FOG FORMATION IN SEVERAL AREAS ACROSS THE REGION BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ONE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS EL PASO COUNTY,
AS SOME HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTERLY AS EARLY AS 3AM. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAK, THAT WOULD
LEAD TO GENTLE UPSLOPING AND LIKELY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS DUE TO ALL
OF THE MOISTURE WE HAVE AROUND. POINTS ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS WILL ALSO BE ESPECIALLY SUBJECT TO
FOG TONIGHT.
TOMORROW..
MODELS KEEP US IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR WEST FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS, EL PASO COUNTY, AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR, AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAVERSING THE RIDGE PASSING THROUGH ON THURSDAY
WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, WITH LIGHT SNOW FOR PEAKS
ABOVE 10,000 FEET.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
RIDGING WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHERN CO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY, THOUGH A GENERAL DRYING TREND WILL
OCCUR FROM DAY TO DAY. NORTHERLY STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP
MOST ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND VALLEYS AND HAVE
TRIMMED THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF POPS OUT OF THE ADJACENT PLAINS
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL RETURN INTO THE
80S BY THE WEEKEND AND 60S AND 70S FOR THE MOUNTAIN/VALLEYS.
WINDS INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. WITH FUELS WET FROM RECENT PRECIPITATION
AND GREEN UP WELL IN FORCE, NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED EVEN THOUGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH LOOKS MORE AMPLIFIED AS IT LIFTS OUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST CO INTO WY TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. THIS WILL BRING
SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY. -KT
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
UPPER LOW WELL EAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SHOWERS WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AT THE
TERMINALS BEING AT ALS. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR
FOG AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT COS AND PUB DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, WITH DEVELOPING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS HELPING TO DEVELOP SCT-BKN040-060
CIGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AT THE
TERMINALS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE AT ALS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW
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