702
FXUS65 KPUB 081705
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1105 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TODAY, WITH SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- MUCH WARMER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WE WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY AS UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. OUR REGION WILL BE IN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, LEADING TO DRIER AND
RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, THANKS TO LINGERING AMBIENT MOISTURE AND
INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY OR SHEAR FOR ANY STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS.
OVER THE PLAINS, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY, THOUGH WITH
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH A MEASLY FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL, MOST LIKELY JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S-60S, WITH A FEW SPOTS OUT EAST HITTING 70 DEGREES OR SO.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS, WITH
40S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
VALLEYS. LIGHT SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS ABOVE 10,000 FEET.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODEL ENSEMBLES.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US ON FRI WILL
SLIDE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ON SAT, MOVING INTO THE ROCKY MT REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO SETTLE IN FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE A DAILY SHOT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED
TO LIKELY FOR THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS, WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
SPILLING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR ONTO THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE
GRADUALLY INCREASING EXPECTED HIGHS AS WELL, SO LOOK FOR HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80F
FOR THE PLAINS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
NW COAST ON SUN WILL DIG SOUTH AND MOVE INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN
ON MON AND TUE. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS AND CO, WHICH IN TURN INCREASES DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
DRYING CONDITIONS ALL THREE DAYS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL
STILL BE A DAILY CHANCE FOR SOME MT CONVECTION, BUT COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED. AS FOR
TEMPS, PLAN ON A MARKED JUMP IN THE MERCURY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS ON SUN WILL WARM TO AROUND
70F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 70S TO MID 80S FOR THE PLAINS. MON
AND TUE ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 70F ONCE AGAIN FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS, BUT UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90F FOR THE PLAINS. THOUGH WEATHER
PARAMETERS SHOULD BE THERE WITH RESPECT TO ENHANCED FIRE DANGER, THE
FUELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AT A POINT WHERE THEY COULD CARRY FIRE,
SO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EJECT TO
THE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO WY AND MT. THIS MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WILL CONTINUE STRONGER WINDS FOR THE FORECAST AREA,
LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND ABOUT A 10
DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPS. MOORE
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES, KCOS, KPUB, AND
KALS, FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT,
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS ARE LIKELY AT ALL THREE STATIONS. AT KALS,
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF STATION, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE TERMINAL. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS
TO COME WITHIN THE VICINITY WILL BE FROM 22Z TO 01Z THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN RISKS WITH STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45KT. IF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS NEAR KALS,
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASED RISK FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...EHR
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