783
FXUS65 KPUB 082254
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
454 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TOMORROW AND
SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
CURRENTLY..
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY,
WITH A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS PUSHING FROM SOUTHERN LINCOLN INTO
KIOWA AND CROWLEY COUNTIES. A FEW OF THESE CELLS HAVE PRODUCED
A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING, THOUGH ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE WEAK
IN NATURE ACROSS THE REGION. POPCORN CU CAN BE OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO, WITH MOSTLY NORTH WINDS
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT..
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE
THE RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP WITH GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH MOTIONS.
OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
RISKS WITH CONVECTION TODAY. SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER
THE HIGH COUNTRY, WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP DOWN INTO 40S
OVER THE PLAINS AND 30S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WHICH IS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TOMORROW..
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TOMORROW, WHICH WILL KEEP CONVECTION
EVEN MORE WIDELY SCATTERED, AND EVEN MORE TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARDS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FOR TOMORROW, WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF QPF AS BETTER MOISTURE
GETS SHUNTED OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S OVER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS, MID TO UPPER 60S FOR EL PASO COUNTY, AND LOW TO MID 70S FOR
THE REST OF THE PLAINS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR OUR FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
SATURDAY..
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY, LEADING TO
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE AS WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT A BIT IN THE MIDLEVELS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH
EACH NEW RUN WITH THIS WEEKEND'S TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY IS NOW
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, MID 70S FOR EL PASO
COUNTY, AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY..
MODELS BRING OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT SUNDAY, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR
REGION INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S AND 90S OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE, WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER THE PLAINS AND 50 MPH OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
LIKELY EVERY AFTERNOON FOR ALL THREE DAYS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN
MOUNTAINS, THOUGH THEY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE AND WILL
LIKELY NOT CARRY MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS. CRITICAL
METEOROLOGICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE PRESENT, THOUGH
RECENT RAINS AND GREENUP WILL LIKELY MEDIATE ANY NEED FOR FIRE
RELATED HIGHLIGHTS THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT.
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS..
MODELS CURRENTLY PULL THE LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. IF THIS FORECAST PERSISTS, IT WOULD
LIKELY BRING OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH MID-
WEEK, AND WOULD ALSO LIKELY BRING ABOUT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 IN GENERAL. FOR NOW, OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BELOW
FREEZING ON THE PLAINS DONT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT BEHIND THE PASSING
SYSTEM. IF IT CHANGES COURSE, THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 423 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA AT KALS NEAR
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, THIS
LOOKS TO CLEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL BUT WILL KEEP
ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF VCSH AT THE TERMINAL UNTIL 02Z. LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. ODDS OF -SHRA LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN KCOS
AND KPUB TERMINALS THIS EVENING. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT KCOS AND KPUB FRI AFTERNOON AND FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT KALS, THOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 KTS. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH COULD IMPACT KALS FRI AFTERNOON.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...KT
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