976  
FXUS65 KPUB 090516  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
1116 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.  
 
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TOMORROW AND  
SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025  
 
CURRENTLY..  
 
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY,  
WITH A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS PUSHING FROM SOUTHERN LINCOLN INTO  
KIOWA AND CROWLEY COUNTIES. A FEW OF THESE CELLS HAVE PRODUCED  
A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING, THOUGH ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE WEAK  
IN NATURE ACROSS THE REGION. POPCORN CU CAN BE OBSERVED ON  
SATELLITE OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO, WITH MOSTLY NORTH WINDS  
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS.  
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S.  
 
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT..  
 
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE  
THE RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK STORMS  
WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP WITH GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH MOTIONS.  
OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN  
RISKS WITH CONVECTION TODAY. SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER  
THE HIGH COUNTRY, WITH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS  
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP DOWN INTO 40S  
OVER THE PLAINS AND 30S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, WHICH IS NEAR  
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
TOMORROW..  
 
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TOMORROW, WHICH WILL KEEP CONVECTION  
EVEN MORE WIDELY SCATTERED, AND EVEN MORE TIED TO THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARDS TOWARDS THE CENTRAL  
MOUNTAINS FOR TOMORROW, WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF QPF AS BETTER MOISTURE  
GETS SHUNTED OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
NEAR NORMAL FOR TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S OVER MOUNTAIN  
VALLEYS, MID TO UPPER 60S FOR EL PASO COUNTY, AND LOW TO MID 70S FOR  
THE REST OF THE PLAINS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS ARE LIKELY  
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR OUR FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025  
 
SATURDAY..  
 
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY, LEADING TO  
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE  
SEVERE AS WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT A BIT IN THE MIDLEVELS AHEAD OF AN  
APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER WITH  
EACH NEW RUN WITH THIS WEEKEND'S TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY IS NOW  
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING  
INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, MID 70S FOR EL PASO  
COUNTY, AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS.  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY..  
 
MODELS BRING OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT SUNDAY, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR  
REGION INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO  
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL  
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S AND 90S OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH  
THIS PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE, WITH  
GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER THE PLAINS AND 50 MPH OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY  
LIKELY EVERY AFTERNOON FOR ALL THREE DAYS. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN  
MOUNTAINS, THOUGH THEY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE AND WILL  
LIKELY NOT CARRY MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS. CRITICAL  
METEOROLOGICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD BE PRESENT, THOUGH  
RECENT RAINS AND GREENUP WILL LIKELY MEDIATE ANY NEED FOR FIRE  
RELATED HIGHLIGHTS THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT.  
 
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS..  
 
MODELS CURRENTLY PULL THE LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. IF THIS FORECAST PERSISTS, IT WOULD  
LIKELY BRING OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH MID-  
WEEK, AND WOULD ALSO LIKELY BRING ABOUT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED RAIN  
AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF  
HIGHWAY 50 IN GENERAL. FOR NOW, OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING BELOW  
FREEZING ON THE PLAINS DONT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT BEHIND THE PASSING  
SYSTEM. IF IT CHANGES COURSE, THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE  
MONITORED.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025  
 
VFR CONDITONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF  
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. AT KCOS AND KPUB WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND  
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.  
 
AT KALS, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT BUT WILL BECOME FROM AN  
EASTERLY COMPONENT MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. WINDS MAY GET A BIT  
GUSTY FROM THE EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON  
 
 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...EHR  
LONG TERM...EHR  
AVIATION...HODANISH  
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