423
FXUS65 KPUB 090911
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
311 AM MDT FRI MAY 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- MUCH WARMER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI MAY 9 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
TEMPERATURES WILL NOTICEABLY WARM TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
HIGH 60S-70S OVER THE PLAINS, WITH LOW-MID 60S FOR THE VALLEYS. THE
PLAINS WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS WELL, ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. MEANWHILE, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER UNDER THE
RIDGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER
THE PEAKS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, PARTICULARLY THE SAWATCH RANGE
AND SAN JUANS, BUT THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED COVERAGE AS WELL. EVEN SO, NOT MANY STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
OVERALL, AND THOSE THAT DO FORM SHOULD NOT HAVE ENOUGH CAPE TO WORK
WITH TO BECOME PARTICULARLY STRONG. SOME BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL,
LIGHTNING, AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
AREA WILL THEN QUICKLY DRY OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
40S FOR THE PLAINS AND 30S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND ROCKY MT REGIONS, PROVIDING FOR A WARM DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THOUGH THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY, THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH TRAPPED MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR HIGHS
AROUND 70F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 70S TO AROUND 80F FOR THE
PLAINS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST ON SUN, WILL DIG
SOUTH AND MOVE INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON MON AND TUE. THIS WILL
INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND CO, WHICH
IN TURN INCREASES DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS ALL THREE
DAYS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS ISOLATED CONVECTION FORECAST
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON SUN AND TUE, WITH MON LOOKING MORE LIKE A
DRY DAY. AS FOR TEMPS, PLAN ON READINGS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS,
WITH MON AND TUE GEARING UP TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S ALL THREE DAYS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS,
WHILE THE PLAINS CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FOR SUN, THEN 80S
TO NEAR 90F FOR MON AND TUE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO WY AND MT.
THIS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WILL CONTINUE STRONGER WINDS FOR THE
FORECAST AREA, LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
AND A SLIGHT COOLING TREND BOTH DAYS. MOORE
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI MAY 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH 24
HOURS. WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10 KNOTS
AND WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. FOR KALS, GENERALLY NORTH WINDS WILL
TURN EASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUST. THERE
IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER DRIFTING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
BUT CURRENT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS ROUND OF TAFS.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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