527
FXUS65 KPUB 092333
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
533 PM MDT FRI MAY 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- WARMER AND DRIER, AND TRENDING WINDY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT FRI MAY 9 2025
TONIGHT: OTHER THAN SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING, A
RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. OVERALL, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE, THOUGH A WEAK RIPPLE WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH THE MINOR SUPPORT FROM THE DISTURBANCE, AND
DIURNAL OROGRAPHICS AND INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT, SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND VALLEYS DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WITH LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE
PEAKS. AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN OROGRAPHICS AND INSTABILITY WANE THOUGH,
ANY SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE MORNING. OTHERWISE,
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SKIES
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CLEAR AS SHOWERS LESSENS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
A RATHER MILD AND NEAR SEASONAL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED, WITH 40S FOR
THE PLAINS, 30S FOR THE VALLEYS, AND 20S TO 30S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
TOMORROW: FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND, A NEAR REPEAT OF FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, WITH
RECYCLED MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, DIURNAL OROGRAPHICS AND INSTABILITY WILL MATERIALIZE,
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. AS FOR THE PLAINS
THOUGH, DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY MAJOR FORCING. BEYOND ALL OF THAT, WINDS WILL CONTINUES TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS, WITH
CLEAR SKIES EARLY BECOMING MORE PARTLY CLOUDY AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BLOSSOM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES, A NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL DAY IS EXPECTED,
WITH LOW 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE PLAINS, MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE
VALLEYS, AND MID 40S TO LOW 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT FRI MAY 9 2025
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING GIVES WAY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CO DUE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WITH AROUND 90 DEGREE READINGS CREEPING BACK INTO THE PLAINS BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS WILL WARM INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 70S.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THESE WILL BE SPOTTY, BRINGING
ONLY SOME BRIEF LIGHT RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING TO
LOCAL AREAS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY NOW WITH INCREASING WINDS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. IN FACT, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR FOR
MONDAY, EXPANDING INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER RECENT MOISTURE AND GREEN UP
WILL MITIGATE ANY FIRE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. MAY HAVE TO MONITOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
CLOSELY AS THEY RECEIVED LESS MOISTURE OUT THAT WAY, AND A
COOLER CLIMO GENERALLY MEANS A LATER GREENUP.
THE SYSTEM STILL PASSES TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
TROUGHING LINGERING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE DAMPENING AND LIFTING OUT LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MEAN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR
WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE PLAINS WILL
REMAIN DRY AND WINDY FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH A DRY COLD FRONT
POSSIBLE LATE WEEK, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY AROUND TO A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. -KT
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT FRI MAY 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
AT KALS, A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT
02 UTC.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...HODANISH
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