285
FXUS65 KPUB 311756
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1156 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED WARMTH TODAY, WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAINED ELEVATED SUNDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES, FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. NORTHERLY LIGHT WINDS HAVE FILLED BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD FOR MOSTLY 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS,
AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
TODAY...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE GREAT
BASIN, STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA, WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SEND A BOUNDARY
BACK WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS, TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP KEEP MOISTURE POOLED ON THE PLAINS, WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WEAK ENERGY
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN, SHEAR IS WEAK, 15 KTS EARLY ON, INCREASING TO NEAR 25 KTS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM, WITH 1000-1500 K/KG OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE, AND
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TO I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOWS SHOULD HELP PUSH THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT ANTICIPATED, A COUPLE OF STORMS
WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG, WITH NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR
50 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
STRONGER STORMS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD
AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. THE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO TRACK SOUTHEAST, CLEARING THE PLAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOSE THEIR PUNCH AFTER
SUNSET, AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS. OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND 40S OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. MOZLEY
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SUNDAY: FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND, ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WHILE NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS ANTICIPATED, OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL BE ONGOING. THIS
TERRAIN FORCING, ALONG WITH DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE, WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIALLY START
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, BUT GIVEN THE FLOW COMPONENT, ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS. OUTSIDE OF THAT, A MOSTLY CLEAR MORNING WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS, AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES
FOR EARLY JUNE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MONDAY - FRIDAY: THEN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. MESSY FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH INFLUENCES FROM TROUGHING AND CUT-OFF LOWS.
DESPITE BEING UNORGANIZED, THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING PERIODS OF
INCREASED FORCING. THIS FORCING, ALONG WITH MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE, WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN BROADER
SUPPORT FROM THE MESSY PATTERN, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WHERE FORCING WILL BE GREATEST. ALONG
WITH THAT, SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING TO
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE UPTICK IN SUPPORT, THOUGH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WILL REMAIN GREATEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN
ANY DIURNAL INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. BEYOND ALL OF
THAT, WITH THE UNSETTLED PATTERN IN PLACE, BREEZY WINDS AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. THEN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE MONDAY TO
EARLY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A PROB30 AT ALL TAF SITES FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, AS CONVECTION INITIALLY FORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
22Z-03Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS (35 KTS PLUS) THE MAIN RISK WITH
ANY STORMS, THOUGH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE
ENOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO CREATE MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
FOR A SHORT PERIOD. CONVECTION SHIFTS INTO NM 03Z-05Z, WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FORECAST REPEATS ON SUNDAY, WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN POSSIBLE.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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