312
FXUS65 KPUB 312040
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
240 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
- FORECAST REPEATS ON SUNDAY, WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, AND FEW STRONG STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE.
- COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER PATTERN ON TRACK FOR NEXT WEEK,
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
MUCH BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
ANOTHER LATE START FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH JUST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON RADAR AS OF 2 PM. EXPECT STORMS TO EXPAND
AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR STARTING
5-6 PM. CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 25 KTS SUGGEST
A COUPLE STRONG/LOW END SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG I-25 THIS EVENING. STORMS MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS AND
DISSIPATE THIS BY LATE EVENING, PERSISTING THE LONGEST OVER LAS
ANIMAS/BACA COUNTIES. ON SUNDAY, UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS CO, BUT OVERALL, WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME, WITH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LINGERING AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AGAIN, MAYBE A
STRONG/BRIEF SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE ALONG I-25 TOWARD EVENING.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH MAXES DRIFTING UPWARD A DEGF OR TWO
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK BEGINS MONDAY, WITH OLD SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW
FINALLY BOOTED NORTHEASTWARD INTO CO DURING THE DAY AS NEW
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. WITH DYNAMIC LIFT
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA, EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS, WHILE CONVECTION
ON THE PLAINS LOOKS MORE ISOLATED, AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TAKES
ON A MORE W-SW DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD BE A
RISK OF A SEVERE STORM OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE, THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS RATHER WEAK, AND MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP
STRONGER STORMS WELL EAST IN KS. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN RACES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, WITH POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
AND DYNAMIC LIFT GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. IN GENERAL, MOST MODEL DATA HAS
TRENDED WETTER ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, AS UPPER LOW
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER/STRONGER AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGER TUE/TUE EVENING,
THOUGH AIR MASS LOOKS VERY COOL AND STABLE FROM THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS, WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTION.
SLIGHTLY WARMER WED WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS,
THOUGH AGAIN COOL TEMPS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH,
ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AND WITH MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE,
EXPECT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY THE WEEKEND, THOUGH NO EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A PROB30 AT ALL TAF SITES FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, AS CONVECTION INITIALLY FORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
22Z-03Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS (35 KTS PLUS) THE MAIN RISK WITH
ANY STORMS, THOUGH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE
ENOUGH HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL TO CREATE MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS
FOR A SHORT PERIOD. CONVECTION SHIFTS INTO NM 03Z-05Z, WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FORECAST REPEATS ON SUNDAY, WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN POSSIBLE.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page