372
FXUS65 KPUB 312333
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
533 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
- FORECAST REPEATS ON SUNDAY, WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, AND FEW STRONG STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE.
- COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER PATTERN ON TRACK FOR NEXT WEEK,
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
MUCH BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
ANOTHER LATE START FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH JUST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON RADAR AS OF 2 PM. EXPECT STORMS TO EXPAND
AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR STARTING
5-6 PM. CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 25 KTS SUGGEST
A COUPLE STRONG/LOW END SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG I-25 THIS EVENING. STORMS MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS AND
DISSIPATE THIS BY LATE EVENING, PERSISTING THE LONGEST OVER LAS
ANIMAS/BACA COUNTIES. ON SUNDAY, UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS CO, BUT OVERALL, WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME, WITH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LINGERING AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AGAIN, MAYBE A
STRONG/BRIEF SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE ALONG I-25 TOWARD EVENING.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH MAXES DRIFTING UPWARD A DEGF OR TWO
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK BEGINS MONDAY, WITH OLD SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW
FINALLY BOOTED NORTHEASTWARD INTO CO DURING THE DAY AS NEW
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. WITH DYNAMIC LIFT
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA, EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS, WHILE CONVECTION
ON THE PLAINS LOOKS MORE ISOLATED, AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TAKES
ON A MORE W-SW DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD BE A
RISK OF A SEVERE STORM OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE, THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS RATHER WEAK, AND MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP
STRONGER STORMS WELL EAST IN KS. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN RACES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, WITH POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
AND DYNAMIC LIFT GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. IN GENERAL, MOST MODEL DATA HAS
TRENDED WETTER ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, AS UPPER LOW
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER/STRONGER AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGER TUE/TUE EVENING,
THOUGH AIR MASS LOOKS VERY COOL AND STABLE FROM THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS, WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTION.
SLIGHTLY WARMER WED WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS,
THOUGH AGAIN COOL TEMPS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH,
ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AND WITH MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE,
EXPECT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY THE WEEKEND, THOUGH NO EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KALS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HOURS. SOME SHOWERS MAY
DRIFT OFF OF THE MOUNTAIN BETWEEN NOW AND 9PM OR SO, BUT CURRENTLY
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL. WILL MONITOR FOR OUTFLOW OR
NEEDED UPDATES DUE TO STORM INTERACTIONS. WINDS LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING A BIT MORE BREEZY AND SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KCOS AND KPUB: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OF BOTH
TERMINALS. KCOS ALREADY HAS STORMS NEARBY, WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
BETWEEN 00-02Z. WILL MONITOR FOR ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS THEREAFTER,
BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT FOR ANYTHING STRONG. SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH RAINFALL. KPUB WILL SEE PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER ON IN THE EVENING, WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
AT THE TERMINAL. LEFT AS PROB30 FOR NOW GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF SHOWERS. NEARBY SHOWERS WILL END BY ABOUT 05Z, WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT TURNING WESTERLY IN THE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, NEAR BOTH KCOS AND KPUB.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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