057
FXUS65 KPUB 010503
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1103 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
- FORECAST REPEATS ON SUNDAY, WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, AND FEW STRONG STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE.
- COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER PATTERN ON TRACK FOR NEXT WEEK,
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
MUCH BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
ANOTHER LATE START FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH JUST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON RADAR AS OF 2 PM. EXPECT STORMS TO EXPAND
AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR STARTING
5-6 PM. CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 25 KTS SUGGEST
A COUPLE STRONG/LOW END SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG I-25 THIS EVENING. STORMS MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS AND
DISSIPATE THIS BY LATE EVENING, PERSISTING THE LONGEST OVER LAS
ANIMAS/BACA COUNTIES. ON SUNDAY, UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS CO, BUT OVERALL, WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME, WITH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LINGERING AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AGAIN, MAYBE A
STRONG/BRIEF SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE ALONG I-25 TOWARD EVENING.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH MAXES DRIFTING UPWARD A DEGF OR TWO
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK BEGINS MONDAY, WITH OLD SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW
FINALLY BOOTED NORTHEASTWARD INTO CO DURING THE DAY AS NEW
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. WITH DYNAMIC LIFT
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA, EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS, WHILE CONVECTION
ON THE PLAINS LOOKS MORE ISOLATED, AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TAKES
ON A MORE W-SW DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD BE A
RISK OF A SEVERE STORM OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE, THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE LOOKS RATHER WEAK, AND MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP
STRONGER STORMS WELL EAST IN KS. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN RACES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, WITH POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
AND DYNAMIC LIFT GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. IN GENERAL, MOST MODEL DATA HAS
TRENDED WETTER ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, AS UPPER LOW
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER/STRONGER AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGER TUE/TUE EVENING,
THOUGH AIR MASS LOOKS VERY COOL AND STABLE FROM THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE PLAINS, WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTION.
SLIGHTLY WARMER WED WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS,
THOUGH AGAIN COOL TEMPS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH,
ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AND WITH MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE,
EXPECT AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY THE WEEKEND, THOUGH NO EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KALS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEARBY, BUT
CURRENT COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SCATTERED TO PUT IN THIS ROUND OF TAFS.
KCOS AND KPUB: SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER IN THE AREA RIGHT
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT WILL DWINDLE SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. ANY GUSTY OUTFLOW WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS WELL. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR BOTH TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
COVERAGE MAY BE SCATTERED IN SOME AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, SO
LEFT AS PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW. CLOSER TO THE END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND TURN WESTERLY.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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