172
FXUS65 KPUB 010905
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
305 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED WARM ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, INTO THE
PLAINS. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAINED ELEVATED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER WAVE ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR EASTERN PLAINS
THROUGH DAYBREAK. RADAR IS PICKING UP A FEW RETURNS AS WELL, WITH A
COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ARE VERY MILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S, WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREES
COOLING EXPECTED BY EARLY MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING ENERGY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS,
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
TODAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH YET ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE SURFACE,
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS THE
PLAINS, WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PLAINS, WITH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WARMS INTO THE 70S. AS
THE EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION, EXPECTED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR VALUES ARE A
BIT HIGHER TODAY, WITH 0-6KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. HIGH
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH SBCAPE RISING TO NEAR 1500 J/KG OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE, SOUTH
LONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
CONVECTION SHOULD STRENGTHEN, WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS BECOMING
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH HAIL NEAR 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS.
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF ARIZONA BY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING, TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS, CLEARING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE THREAT
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. ONCE STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THE PLAINS,
EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD FOR MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES OUT OF
ARIZONA, PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. PEAKS COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOW BY MORNING. MOZLEY
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
MONDAY - SATURDAY: FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED DAILY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A
MESSY PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH INFLUENCES
FROM TROUGHING, CUT-OFF LOWS, AND OTHER MINOR WAVES/RIPPLES WITHIN
THE FLOW. DESPITE THE MESSY PATTERN THOUGH, FORCING WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS FORCING, COUPLED WITH MOISTURE IN
PLACE, IS WHAT WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BLOSSOM ACROSS THE AREA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
GREATEST ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
ALSO, GIVEN THE BROADER OVERALL SUPPORT, SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. IN ADDITION TO ALL OF THAT, A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR, STORMS IN THIS
LOCALIZED AREA ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MORE CLUSTERY AND PULSEY IN
NATURE, THOUGH WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG, DCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG,
AND HIGH BASES, STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 60-65 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. BEYOND ALL OF THAT,
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS, WITH BREEZY WINDS PERSISTING GIVEN THE ACTIVE
PATTERN IN PLACE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY, WITH WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THEN A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THANKS TO A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. FINALLY, FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START REBOUNDING BACK TO WARMER VALUES,
WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN ONE
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
KCOS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AT BOTH
SITES. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES TODAY. REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ALONG WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT
ONCE STORMS MOVE AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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